Michigan vulnerability is ‘high’ as ​​COVID sweeps across United States again

DETROIT – Circumstances affecting Michigan’s ability to adequately respond to a COVID-19 outbreak have placed the state at “high” vulnerability, according to a National COVID Vulnerability Index.

In recent weeks, the spread of COVID has accelerated again in the United States, driven by the delta variant, which is a more transmissible strain of the virus. Coronavirus vaccines have been shown to be effective against the variant, but there have been some “groundbreaking” cases recently reported among those vaccinated, causing some concern.

Pfizer, a pharmaceutical company behind one of the circulating coronavirus vaccines, has requested emergency clearance for a third dose of the vaccine – a ‘booster’ vaccine – if it becomes necessary if cases continue to develop and that strains continue to evolve. The booster is said to increase people’s immunity to the virus, although officials say it is not yet needed.

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Still, cases are increasing in the United States at an alarming rate after many states saw signs of improvement once vaccination rates rose. Health officials say most COVID infections, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States occur among unvaccinated people.

As COVID infections rise in Michigan, a state that recorded its lowest virus readings on record earlier this summer, researchers say the state is vulnerable to a COVID-19 outbreak due to several factors.

The US COVID-19 Community Vulnerability Index, created by Surgo Ventures, assesses how well communities can respond to “the health, economic and social consequences of COVID-19 without a proper response and without additional support.” The data is disaggregated by counties in each state, each of which is assigned a level of vulnerability.

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Overall, researchers say the state of Michigan has a “high” vulnerability to an outbreak of COVID-19, as of August 5.

Here’s a look at the COVID-19 Vulnerability Index data that contributes to this label:

Factors putting Michigan at risk

COVID-19 Vulnerability Index data shows that several factors make the state of Michigan vulnerable to a virus outbreak.

Some of the most important factors that affect vulnerability include the health conditions and living environments of residents, population density, and problems within the health system.

According to the index, a significant number of high risk residents live in the northern half of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula and throughout the Upper Peninsula. People at high risk are those who are more likely to contract COVID, including “the elderly and those with underlying conditions, including respiratory conditions, heart conditions, obesity, diabetes and immunodeficiency-related conditions, ”the report states.

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In addition to those at high risk, there are a number of Michigan residents who live or work in high risk environments. Statewide, those who work or live in nursing homes or prisons, for example, are considered to be in a high-risk environment, that is, a space where people are more likely to ” be exposed and / or vulnerable to infection with COVID.

In the southern half of the lower peninsula, denser populations could contribute to a more endemic spread of the virus in a short period of time. Areas like Metro Detroit, Flint, Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids are particularly more vulnerable to viral spread due to their large populations, according to the report. Most of the northern half of Michigan has a medium to low population density.

Researchers say some counties in Michigan are particularly at risk due to how their health care systems work. The report identifies the capacity and readiness of each community’s health system to respond to COVID by examining factors such as the number of available hospital beds, pharmacies and health spending in the region. Health systems in counties like Isabella, Macomb and Monroe, for example, are labeled at higher risk by the report – meaning their health systems may not be well prepared to respond to another outbreak. Several other Michigan counties have been classified as medium to high risk due to the state of their health systems.

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An important factor that makes Michigan vulnerable to a COVID outbreak is the mobility of its residents, says the report. The Michiganders appear to have been on the move in recent weeks, going to more places and practicing less social distancing – especially since July 4, when the state saw a huge spike in mobility.

Researchers say decreasing mobility is a key step in reducing the spread of the virus, although some people obviously cannot practice social distancing because of their jobs.

The index also takes into account factors such as the socioeconomic status of a community’s residents, the condition of households and their access to plumbing, and the number of COVID testing sites available per county to determine whether a county or a State is vulnerable to an epidemic.

Click here to review all of the factors included in the Michigan report.

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Michigan’s COVID Hot Spots

The index uses COVID-19 data, such as the number of cases and hospitalizations, to determine which communities, if any, are serving as virus “hot spots”.

As of August 5, the index lists 15 Michigan counties as current COVID hotspots, all in the Lower Peninsula, including:

• Alpena County

• Barry County

• Branch County

• Cass County

• County of Charlevoix

• Huron County

• Jackson County

• Ingham County

• County of Iosco

• Kalamazoo County

• Kalkaska County

• Montmorency County

• Ogemaw County

• Saginaw County

• Shiawassee County

No county in Michigan is currently labeled an “extreme hot spot.”

Michigan COVID Data

The numbers are heading in the wrong direction again for Michigan.

On Tuesday, August 3, the state reported an increase of 2,605 COVID cases over a four-day period, with a 7-day moving average of new daily cases at 694 – more than five times the average on July 1. After experiencing its worst peak in COVID infections and hospitalizations in the spring, the state reported its lowest virus readings in June.

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Now, those metrics tend to increase again as the delta variant, now the most dominant COVID strain in the United States, makes its way across the state and country.

The state’s latest COVID data shows Michigan’s positive COVID test rate is approaching 6% after hitting a low of less than 2% in June. Health experts say positive test rates above 3% are cause for concern.

Click here for more Michigan COVID data.

According to data from Covid Act Now – – a group of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts and public policy leaders who are monitoring and identifying each state’s level of risk for a COVID outbreak – 19 – Michigan’s infection rate is currently 1.37, which means that every person who contracts COVID infects an average of 1.37 other people.

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While the upward measures are concerning, the numbers reported by Michigan are not as bad as the COVID outbreak the state experienced this spring, or that of last fall. Still, with colder weather approaching, experts warn cases will likely increase even more as people move indoors, where the virus can spread more easily.

And conditions are getting worse across the country. Michigan’s infection rate, which is considered high by Covid Act Now, is only the 15th highest in the country. Other states like Florida, Louisiana and Wisconsin are experiencing significant epidemics.

Conditions across the United States

Most of the U.S. Midwest is highly vulnerable to COVID, according to the index. Many southern states and densely populated states like New York and California have a “very high” vulnerability label.

Florida, in particular, is once again grappling with an endemic spread of COVID, breaking its record for hospitalizations for the virus on August 1 – which was set last year, before vaccines were available. More than 12,000 people were hospitalized with COVID across Florida as of Wednesday, and nearly 2,500 of them were in intensive care beds.

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Read more: COVID: In Florida hospitals, “there are only a limited number of beds”

The increase in cases in the United States has prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to update their mask guidelines. The CDC now recommends that people, even those who are vaccinated, return to wear masks indoors in parts of the United States where COVID is on the rise – which is a large part of the country, according to the CDC map.

The CDC reversed the course of its guidelines on lifted masks on July 27. The CDC now recommends that those who live in areas where the virus is “high” (red on the map) or “important” (orange) wear masks indoors, regardless of vaccination status.

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Most of Michigan was unaffected by the new guidelines at that time, as much of the state was not labeled in any of these categories. That quickly changed, however, after the state released another set of COVID data earlier this week, showing increased measures. Now almost half of Michigan falls under revised mask guidelines.

Amid growing cases across the state, Michigan officials on Wednesday released updated COVID school guidelines for in-person learning ahead of the next school year. The authorities urge schools to put in place several prevention strategies and encourage the universal wearing of masks.

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A number of businesses and colleges in Michigan and the United States are mandating COVID vaccines and masks to help prevent the spread of the virus on their campuses.

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