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What will the NBA look like in five years? Who will be the best players in the game? The All-Stars, guys on the cover of 2K24, guys with signature shoe offers?
As a fun summer project, the NBA team at NBCSports.com gathered our ideas, pulled out our crystal balls and tried to project the top 50 players in the NBA in the next five years – in the summer of 2024. We took into account the age of the player, his potential ceiling and his chances of reaching it, his injury history, etc. The team working on this project included Dan Feldman, Tom Haberstroh, Rob Dauster, Tommy Beer, Steve Alexander, and Kurt Helin (and thanks to Tess Quinlan and Mia Zanzucchi for design assistance).
There has been a lot of disagreement (and we do not expect you to agree with our entire list), but here it is.
Here is the link to here are the links to the players 50-46, 45-41, 40-36, 35-31, 30-26, 25-21, 20-16 and 15-11. These are the 10-6 players on our list.
How fast and how far can Trae Young develop his game was exposed even before he went to an NBA field. In his first game of the NBA Summer League (in Salt Lake City), he missed his first 11 shots and looked like a guy who struggles to keep up with the speed and length of the game. At the end of the Las Vegas Summer League, he was one of the best players, scoring three assists and finding teammates with perfect passes.
The same thing happened during his rookie season in the NBA. He had difficulties at first. In November, he scored 14 points on average per game, shot 19.8% on three points and had difficulties with the turnarounds. After the all-star break, Young averaged 24.7 points per game, scoring 34.8% of the three shots, and pushed Luka Doncic for the rookie of the year award (Young was second in that vote).
If he can have as much growth in a year, how much can he grow in five years? The Hawks are betting a lot, they predict that Young and John Collins (No. 24 on this countdown) may be the cornerstones of a candidate in Atlanta. At the moment, they are young stars with the aspirations of the stars, and to bring the Hawks back to the playoffs. In five years, the mere fact of participating in the playoffs should not be good enough for the ATL.
Young knows how to shoot with reach, is a talented smuggler and is working on the next steps in his development. He must become stronger (he would have added 10 pounds this summer), become a better defender, learn to better finish on orders (he needs a float and be able to score better by touch, at the rim , Stephen Curry). Above all, the Hawks need him to be a leader, to bring this franchise back to the post-season and finally to reach record-breaking heights for decades in Atlanta.
Young has the skills to do all this, he has a work ethic and coach Lloyd Pierce trains him at the right pace. After five years, while at the forefront of his early youth, we see Young become one of the best leaders in the game because we have already seen growth.
Kurt Helin
The youngest player has an average of 15-7-7 and draws 54% of the field:
Ben Simmons.
The second youngest player to have an average of 15-7-7 and shoot 54% of the field:
Ben Simmons.
LeBron James, Magic Johnson and Wilt Chamberlain are the only other players to have achieved this level of performance at any point in their careers.
Simmons, 23, is a special talent in all fields. The 6-foot-10 goalkeeper flourishes in the open area. He quickly reverses his defensive rebounds in quick attacks, attacks the basket and passes the zips all over the field. His defense is remarkable because of his versatility and ability to keep in touch.
No wonder the 76ers granted him a maximum extension of contract so quickly.
But he has a huge defect: jumping shots.
Simmons even trying a 3-pointer is a new one. Opponents ignore him on the perimeter and he is too uncomfortable to shoot. The Philadelphia offense, which is becoming a particularly important issue in the playoffs, is a problem. It's so hard to win with such limited care.
Maybe Simmons is going to improve. He would not be the first player to dramatically improve his NBA rider. But he comes from so far behind. There is even a debate about the hand with which he must shoot.
Even though Simmons is one of the safest bets to be a star for five years, it's hard to imagine him becoming a superstar. There is a ceiling for guards who can not fire from outside.
Yet, with all the other ways he contributes, Simmons should be banging his head against that ceiling.
-Dan Feldman
How much did Donovan Mitchell become after only two NBA seasons? All this was presented with the team of the United States this summer, where he distinguished himself in the matches and the training, is part of the players of this formation, Gregg Popovich entrusts his confidence to create throws and to obtain buckets (with veteran Kemba Walker), and he was named co-captain of the team. At 22 years. (The other captains are veterans Walker and Marcus Smart.)
What is important for Mitchell's development – and for the future of Utah – is that the lessons at Popovich University this summer are not just about the field, but also about how to be a leader, how to prepare, how to mentally develop one's game. Last summer, Mitchell was rehabilitating after an injury this summer was a matter of growth.
"Last summer was different," Mitchell said when the US team stopped in Los Angeles to attend a training camp. "I'm in good health, I've been able to travel a bit, but I've been able to work, and this is just another step to get better."
How good can Mitchell be in five years? He will be 27 years old at his peak and Utah thinks he will bring back the franchise to the biggest scenes, the ones that they have not known since the Stockton / Malone era. Mitchell this summer shows that he is up to the task and that he will have the good talent around him – Rudy Gobert will only have 32 years in five years (and was the 32nd to this countdown). In the short term, Mitchell will have Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic on his team as well – it's an achievable goal.
Mitchell wants the pressure – he has not fled the responsibility of leading the US team. He does not hesitate to talk about his goals for the Jazz, which go far beyond the playoffs of next season. But you can say that he was at Popovich University this summer, because he talked about the team first, the second individual and all that It takes to win. Bring that mentality back to Utah and Mitchell could bring Jazz back to the high stage they want to go back to.
Kurt Helin
When he was on the Timberwolves, Jimmy Butler revealed the main problem of Karl-Anthony Towns.
"Who is the most talented player on our team?" Said Butler. "Kat."
The problem: Towns was not the best player in Minnesota. Butler was.
Cities have all the tools. He is tall, mobile and competent. The list of 7-footers who scored 3 points and scored like him could end on Dirk Nowitzki.
But despite all his talents, Towns did not bring the necessary intensity. He has too often failed to assert himself offensively. His defensive efforts and his execution are constantly lacking. There is simply not enough strength in his game.
The cities started arriving late last season. Perhaps it was due to the super-max incentives in his five-year contract extension starting this season. Maybe he's rightfully taken a turn for good
In both cases, Towns is only 23 years old. He has so much time left to go there. He is already a star with this approach. If he develops a domination mentality, he could become the best player in the NBA.
Cities always say all the good things. In the next five years, we hope that it will do even more.
-Dan Feldman
This ranking is a big bet on health.
The question is not, "Can Kawhi Leonard be a great player in 33 years to five years?" He is a talented elite of the NBA, which has now reached its peak. He has just led the Toronto Raptors to an NBA title with 30.5 points and 9.1 rebounds play in the playoffs. He is as good a defender as in the current game, which will not change much with age. Offensively, he can get his own shot, create for others, he's shot 37.1% against three this season, but what's most impressive is his footwork and ability to reach his goals on the floor. His mechanical and physical style will age well.
If he is in good health.
This remains the cloud above Leonard. He played only 60 games in the regular season in Toronto, while the Raptors kept him healthy after the quadricep tendon problem that cost Leonard his last season in – and his relationship with – San Antonio. In the playoffs, Leonard played all the games, but by compensating his quad, he had a pain in the other knee, which he played and still won the final player of the final. But this raises concerns.
With the Clippers, expect more of the same – Leonard will be on a maintenance plan and will have many nights off during the regular season. (Between him and Paul George, that's all to avoid if you buy tickets to see the Clippers.) The Clippers have depth, they intend to qualify for the playoffs and, if they get there , find a healthy strength of nature with a duo of the best two-way wings players in the game on the list, plus a deep bench. For the next few years, the Clippers should be title contenders.
In five years? The Clippers could still be contenders if Leonard is in good health. Our forecasters are betting that it will be, that all maintenance will pay off and that Leonard will remain one of the dominant forces of the game. But it's a gamble.
Kurt Helin
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