MLB playoff scenarios, tiebreaker before final weekend of regular season

Every game on the scheduled last day of the MLB regular season begins Sunday at 3 p.m., in the hopes that some sort of crazy, compelling storylines will unfold, similar to what happened on the last day of the regular season. 2011.

It is certainly possible in 2021. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Let’s take a look at the places and playoff pecking order still in the game heading into the final three days of the regular season schedule.

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National League West

Before we talk about scenarios for the NL West, we need to talk about WHY winning the division is so important. The division winner goes straight to the best of five NLDS, which begins Oct. 8, and will have home court advantage throughout the playoffs. The West finalist will be the NL’s first wild-card team, which means they will host the win-or-go-home wild-card “streak” on October 6. If they win this one, they’ll move to the NLDS against… the winner of the NL West, who will be the team with the best record in the MLB. And if they win this series, despite having a much better regular-season record than Milwaukee or Atlanta, they wouldn’t have any ground in the NLCS because they’re a wild-card team.

The one-game wildcard streak is a scary thought, and it’s not a fair reward for a team that has been one of the best in baseball all season. Maybe “fair” is the wrong choice of words. But the truth is, the Giants and Dodgers have the two best records in baseball, but one of them could very well be eliminated on day two of the 2021 playoffs. What kind of playoff system is it, where a 102-win team goes straight into a make-or-die game and a less than 90-win team (the Braves) get the cushion to play a best-of-five streak? That they have to face a Cardinals team that just pulled off a 17-game winning streak to clinch the second NL wild card spot isn’t exactly appealing, either.

Now let’s move on to the scenario, which is pretty basic. Here are the recordings:

SFG 104-54, –
LAD 102-56, 2 sets back

Both teams are playing very well right now – they’re both 8-2 ​​in their last 10 games – as they’ve been all season. The Giants finish at home with three against the Padres, who only spoil after a disastrous last month; the Dodgers finish with three at home against the Brewers, who are already locked in the No. 2 seed in the NL playoffs.

The team with the best record wins the division, obviously. If they are tied, they will play a tiebreaker game, a 163 game that will count as a regular season game. That game would take place on October 4 and the Giants would host it, thanks to their 10-9 advantage in the regular season series against the Dodgers.

So here is. The Dodgers need the Giants to lose two games against the Padres to have a shot. One win secures the Giants a tie, two secures the division title.

AL joker

Friday morning, with three games each remaining for the four teams still on the line for the AL two wildcard spots, there are 24 different scenarios still at stake – including a four-way tie at 91-71 (although that’s a long way from to be probable). The reason for so many scenarios is that none of the four teams play against each other, so all four could go 3-0 or all four could go 0-3 or any combination in between.

There is no tiebreaker in determining actual playoff spots; if two (or more) teams are tied for last place in the playoffs, there will be a tiebreaker (or games). Now, if two teams are tied for the No. 1 seed, both are inside and home court advantage for the wildcard game is determined by the head-to-head record this season.

First, here is the ranking …

NYY 91-68, +2
WED 89-70, –
BOS 89-70, –
TOR 88-71, 1 back of the second WC spot

So the Yankees are currently WC1, with the Red Sox and Mariners tied for WC2.

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The Yankees are obviously in great shape, as they should be after hitting the road and sweeping the Red Sox and then winning two of three in Toronto in another huge series. They host Tampa Bay – the Rays have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AL, but at 98 wins they have a 100 chance for the first time in franchise history, and they’re not going turn around – in the last three games, and even a single victory guarantees the Yankees at least a place in a possible deciding game. If the Yankees are 2-1, they are the best wild-card team.

The Red Sox are giving way to the table. They’re tied with the Mariners for second in the wild card, but it really feels like they’re not making the playoffs. Getting swept away at home by the Yankees was bad enough, but what to follow up by going to Baltimore and losing two of three to an Orioles who have recorded 107 losses this season? That should almost be disqualifying in itself. The Sox finish with three at the Nationals, another team long out of action, but even the Bad News Bears would be causing trouble in Boston right now.

On the other side of the coin, the Sailors play excellent baseball, having won 10 of 11 – including seven W’s against the A’s, which knocked Oakland out of the playoff picture – to tie for second in the wild card. I’m not going to lie, it seemed impossible for most of the season. But here they are, and they finish with three at home against the Angels. They’ll face off against hitter Shohei Ohtani, but he won’t take the mound in the series. Considering he’s allowed two runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts, that’s probably good for Seattle. The Mariners, as you probably know, haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, baseball’s longest streak today.

The Blue jays had the most opportunistic schedule of the past week, hosting a team they were chasing (the Yankees), then the worst club in the AL. But they lost two of the three to New York and have to pretty much sweep the Orioles, then hope the Yankees, Mariners and Red Sox stumble.

Let’s look at some scenarios – not all 24 because who has the time?

First off, let’s say the post-Game 162 standings look exactly like the current standings, with the Yankees in the lead, the Mariners and Sox in a tie, and the Jays in a rematch. Toronto is out, of course, and the Yankees are in WC1. The Mariners and Red Sox would play a 163 tie-breaker game in Boston; the Sox get home court advantage because they won the season series, 4-3. Easy enough.

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In our next scenario, let’s say the Yankees lose two of three to the Rays and the M’s and Sox both sweep, so these three teams are tied at 92-70. Let’s take things straight from MLB.com.

The next one we’ll look at perhaps seems the most plausible. In it, the Yankees finish with the best record, and the M’s, Sox and Jays all finish tied. Again, directly from MLB.com.

And, because everyone loves chaos, let’s say the Yankees get swept away by the Rays, the Jays sweep the Orioles and the Red Sox and the Mariners both go 2-1. Everyone would have 91-71. You know how it works … directly from MLB.com.

Wouldn’t that be fun?