Model shows minimal benefit by vaccinating high-risk populations first

Investigators from NYU Tandon School of Engineering have developed a new open-source platform capable of building predictive models of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) based on aggregated data from numerous observations in different layers of the society. The study was published in the journal Advanced theory and simulations.

The study was conducted in the city of New Rochelle in New York, chosen because of its size comparable to other cities in the United States and because it was one of the first recorded outbreaks. in the country.

“We chose New Rochelle not only because of its place in the COVID timeline, but also because agent-based modeling for mid-sized cities is relatively unexplored while the United States is largely made up of these towns and small towns, ”Maurizio Porfiri, the leader behind said the research team.

Investigators used the Agent-Based Model (ABM) to replicate geographic and demographic information gathered about the city from US Census statistics. They then overlaid a high-resolution temporal and spatial representation of the COVID-19 pandemic at the individual level, incorporating characteristics such as physical locations, behavioral trends, and local mobility patterns.

The results of the study suggest that prioritizing those at high risk for vaccination has only a marginal impact on the total number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 virus. Investigators said large fractions would need to be vaccinated to see significant improvements. They also showed that restrictive measures such as social distancing, wearing of masks and restrictions on mobility far outweigh selective vaccination scenarios.

The model used is unique in that it has the potential to explore different approaches for testing in hospitals and drive-thru facilities and strategies that might prioritize more vulnerable groups.

“We believe that government decision-making could benefit from this model, not only because it is ‘open source’, but because it offers ‘fine’ resolution at the individual level and a wide range of features, ”Porfiri told me.