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New projections from an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill paint a positive picture of herd immunity and fewer COVID-19 cases over the coming winter.
Justin Lessler is one of the coordinators of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a collaborative effort between universities across the country that takes projections from teams across the country and balances them statistically.
Its latest projection for North Carolina indicates that we have already reached the peak of delta-variant coronavirus infections.
New COVID-19 Cases Reported, Deaths in North Carolina
The new laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths are based on daily reports from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services via the agency’s COVID-19 dashboard. The dashboard began reporting the number of cases on March 13 and the number of deaths on March 26. Since these numbers of cases and deaths may differ slightly depending on the time it takes for labs to process tests and for health officials to confirm cases, we also calculate a seven-day moving average to show the case curve. . NOTE: This chart now includes cases and deaths identified through antigen testing, which DHHS began reporting on its dashboard on September 25. Learn more about the fixes and compare the changes here.
Source: NC DHHS
Graphics: Tyler Dukes, WRAL
This suggests that, if children are vaccinated and no new, more infectious variants emerge, the pandemic could be mainly a memory by next spring.
Lessler and his team are optimistic because so many people in the United States have been vaccinated or have had COVID. “It creates immunity, and that immunity ultimately has the effect of driving away the people that the virus infects, sort of using the fuel of the viral fire,” he said. “This causes the virus to start to recede.”
He warns that the two eventualities – vaccination of children and the presence of a new variant – make all the difference.
A projection that includes the development of a new, more infectious variant shows cases climbing in early 2022. UNC-Chapel Hill virologist Dirk Dittman believes this scenario is likely due to vacation travel and the fact that the virus is constantly evolving.
“We’ll probably see another variant that spreads better,” he said. “Whether this variant leads to more hospitalizations, however, is very different.”
Dittman says increasing vaccination and immunity rates should help make the next wave less deadly.
“If we don’t reach the vaccine levels, or if the vaccine doesn’t last as long as we think it will, everything resets to zero. And it’s the much more frightening scenario that worries me,” he said. -he declares. .
Lessler is more upbeat, but he doesn’t want people to think they can relax. The delta wave is not yet over.
“What that tells me is that things are bad now, but things are going to get better. So take those extra few weeks or months to be careful. You can start, you know, to relax a bit. little possibly, “he said.
Coronavirus Vaccinations in North Carolina
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