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Many counties are seeing an increase in their seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases as well as their positive rate on coronavirus diagnostic tests.
It could be a sign of a new wave. Or it could very well be statistical noise: Limited coronavirus testing and spotty reporting of numbers over the holidays means trendlines are unreliable at this time.
In fact, predict that the number of coronaviruses may well continue to rise over the next few days, just as reporting agencies catch up on late data and COVID-19 patients who delayed testing during the holidays are being tested now. .
Statewide, Michigan’s seven-day new case average is now 2,839, an 8% increase from 2,631 a week ago today. The seven-day average positivity rate is now 9.2%, down from 8.3% a week ago.
Below is a more in-depth look at the data at the county level, based on metrics used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to assess coronavirus risk levels. The scale used by MDHHS has six levels – “low” plus AE levels.
First, a look at the seven-day average positivity rates by county, grouped by state metric.
- Level E (more than 20%): none.
- Level D (15-20%): Hillsdale, Branch and Cass.
- Level C (10-15%): 33 counties, highest to lowest – Crawford, Roscommon, Van Buren, Tuscola, Oscoda, Saginaw, Wexford, St Joseph, St Clair, Osceola, Oceana, Lapeer, Missaukee, Huron, Benzie, Macomb, Jackson, Eaton, Monroe, Dickinson, Bay, Lenawee, Alcona, Clinton, Shiawassee, Ottawa, Newaygo, Kent, Allegan, Ogemaw, Iosco, Wayne and Kalamazoo.
- Level B (7-10%): 23 counties, highest to lowest – Genesee, Muskegon, Arenac, Livingston, Grand Traverse, Clare, Montmorency, Midland, Barry, Oakland, Ingham, Berrien, Ionia, Mecosta, Presque Isle , Gladwin, Manistee, Alpena, Cheboygan, Leelanau, Washtenaw, Montcalm and Calhoun.
- Level A (3-7%): 16 counties – Kalkaska, Chippewa, Isabella, Menominee, Sanilac, Otsego, Antrim, Houghton, Mason, Delta, Gratiot, Marquette, Gogebic, Mackinac, Emmet and Iron.
- Low (less than 3%): eight counties – Luce, Keweenaw, Charlevoix, Schoolcraft, Lake, Ontonagon, Baraga and Alger.
The table below allows you to search any county by name for the seven-day average positivity rate from December 26 to January. 1.
The interactive map below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
New cases per capita
Daily new cases per capita is another metric used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to access coronavirus risk.
In this metric – which calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million population – 65 counties are at level E, the highest risk level on the MDHHS scale. The threshold for level E is 150 cases per day per million inhabitants.
The levels of the other 14 counties:
- Level D (70 to 149 cases per million): Roscommon, Wexford, Mason, Leelanau, Houghton, Alpena, Emmet, Kalkaska, Marquette, Manistee, Gogebic, Lake and Ontonagon.
- Level C (40 to 69 cases per million): Algiers, Otsego, Mackinac and Cheboygan.
- Low (less than 7 cases per million): Charlevoix and Luce.
Here’s an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the number per capita that is adjusting to the population. Arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased from the previous seven days.
Current scores are based on new cases reported from December 27 through January. 2 The map below is shaded according to the six levels of state. Arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased from December 20-26.
Readers can hover their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. (Hint: you can drag the map with your cursor to see all of the TOP)
Overall MDHHS score by region
MDHHS assigned an overall score to each of the state’s MI Start regions, looking at factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered, and emergency room visits for symptoms of COVID-19.
As of November 4, Michigan’s eight MI Start regions are at the highest level the state uses to assess coronavirus risk.
This interactive map shows these eight regions and their current scores. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
(The MI Start districts of the state: Region 1 is the Detroit region; region 2 is Grand Rapids; region 3, Kalamazoo; region 4, Saginaw; region 5, Lansing; region 6, Traverse City ; Region 7, Jackson, and Region 8, the Upper Peninsula.)
Below are online databases that allow readers to search county-level data for each of the past 20 days.
Cases daily it was reported to the State
The first is a graph showing new cases reported to the state each day over the past 30 days. This is based on when a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means the patient first became ill several days previously.
You can call up a chart for any county, and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases. (As of September 1, the state stopped reporting numbers on Sunday.)
(In a few cases, a county reported a negative (decline) number of new daily cases, following a retroactive reclassification by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. In these cases, we subtracted the cases of the previous date and put 0 in the reported date field.)
The following graph below shows new cases over the past 30 days based on symptom onset. In this graph, the numbers for the most recent days are incomplete due to the delay between illness and getting a confirmed coronavirus test result, which can take up to a week or more.
You can call up a chart for any county, and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
More localized maps
Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at the University of Michigan’s Department of Epidemiology, which has access to sub-county data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
The interactive maps break down the state into 10-kilometer hexagons to provide a more localized overview of where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to go to the research project website.
The first map examines confirmed and probable cases of coronavirus over the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.
You can use the triangle button at the top right of the map to switch to the second map, which shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic.
Latest daily report
On Saturday January 2, the state reported 8,983 new coronavirus cases and 265 new deaths from December 31 to January 2.
The map below shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying numbers.
For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, check out the state’s online test finder, here, email [email protected], or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.
For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.
Learn more about MLive:
Virtual learning is ‘nightmare’ for special education students amid pandemic, parents say
Video diaries: teachers reflect on the roller coaster of 2020
More than 50,000 students have left Michigan public schools this year. Where did they go?
The coronavirus changed everything in 2020. Will the pandemic end in 2021?
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