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In the first months of 2021, efforts to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine gained rapid momentum across the United States, with Americans, on the whole, increasingly willing to be vaccinated.
Five different pollsters asked Americans how ready they were to be vaccinated in December and then again in March, while giving people the option to say they were undecided or in the middle. And the main thing to remember is that the share of those who had been vaccinated or who definitely intended to increase by an average of 23 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the average share who expressed little intention to be vaccinated fell by 5 relatively modest points, while the undecided share fell an average of 18 points. If any politician or problem saw a similar increase during this time frame, it would be pointed out – and rightly so – as a shocking surge of support.
The change is not entirely unexpected, however. For most of last year, the issue of vaccination was totally hypothetical, as vaccines were still in development and their eventual effectiveness was unknown. Many Americans are also worried about a rushed vaccine under political pressure. But in December, the Food and Drug Administration cleared the first COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use, marking the start of the country’s vaccination campaign. Today, more than a quarter of Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine and most know at least one person who has been vaccinated, making the question of whether to get vaccinated more more tangible.
It is a mistake to think that the public is divided between a faction of enthusiastic vaccination supporters and a small bloc of equally adamant anti-vaccination crusaders. A poll last winter found that many Americans were undecided but potentially influenceable, and in the months that followed, that group increasingly decided in favor of the vaccine, rising from an average of 40% at 58%, as shown in the graph above. The proportion of people refusing to be vaccinated has decreased slightly.
There is a clear trend in vaccine acceptance, although pollsters find somewhat less agreement on the absolute number of Americans likely to end up getting vaccinated – a crucial question for the prospect of achieving immunity. collective.
One factor may be the multitude of different frameworks used by pollsters to ask respondents to rate their behavior. These range from simple yes or no questions to questions that ask respondents to rate their likelihood of being vaccinated or to consider the circumstances under which they might be vaccinated.
Whether pollsters give respondents an explicit option to say they are uncertain also seems to matter. Two polls that does not have include all ‘maybe’ or ‘not sure’ options, Gallup and NPR / Marist, found initial vaccine acceptance above our average (in December, 65% and 61%, respectively, said they would get the vaccine), then relatively modest movement in the following months (74 percent and 70 percent, respectively, said this month that they had received or intended to be vaccinated). Taken together, the results rightly suggested that a significant portion of the public was not yet fully sold on vaccines as of December – but that, if pushed to choose, those hesitant were more likely to switch to a ” yes ”than towards a“ no ”. . “
Yet this group of ambivalent people about vaccines was hardly monolithic. Surveys last year revealed a number of groups who were less likely to say they wanted to get the shot. Two of the groups that received the most attention were black Americans and Republicans. However, the reasons they did not want to be vaccinated differed considerably. (The same was true of the nature of their refusal, the former being more likely to express an initial hesitation and the latter an outright refusal.) Notably, the proportion of black Americans who want to be vaccinated has steadily increased since last year while the share of Republicans who want it. getting vaccinated has moved a lot less. In a Kaiser Family Foundation poll, for example, the share of black Americans who were vaccinated or said they would get vaccinated as soon as possible increased by 35 percentage points between December and March, while the change among Republicans was 18 points.
Partisanship has proven to be one of the strongest predictors of Americans’ reactions throughout the pandemic, and vaccination should be no different.
In a CBS / YouGov poll in mid-March, a third of Republicans gave a definitive ‘no’ to whether they would be vaccinated – still a minority, but higher than the share of refusals among any other racial , generational or demographic group based on gender. This survey also asked people who said they did not get the vaccine or did not get the vaccine to select their reasons for refusing it. The most commonly chosen reason, across partisan lines, was a feeling that the vaccine was “still too untested” – 58% of those who were unsure of receiving the vaccine, including 61% of Republicans, the have chosen as justification. . Other factors were more uniquely partisan: Thirty-five percent of Republicans who were unsure whether they would be vaccinated said they were “just not concerned about the coronavirus,” reflecting a wider bias on the severity of the pandemic.
The vaccine rollout is set to hit another inflection point this spring, as states begin to expand eligibility to the general public, leaving the question of whether the share of Americans wanting to be vaccinated will continue to increase as well.
According to an AP-NORC survey in late February, by far the most common reason people gave as to why they might not get the vaccine was concerns about possible side effects, which a majority of 57% named among their main reasons (people who participated in the survey were allowed to select multiple options). This was followed by 48 percent who said they were waiting to see if it was safe, 45 percent who said they didn’t trust the COVID-19 vaccines, 30 percent who weren’t sure the vaccine would work, 28 percent who worried about an allergic reaction and 27 percent who said they thought other people needed the vaccine more.
People aren’t always good at predicting what will or will not make them change their minds. But a COVID-19 poll conducted by Langer Research Associates in March found that the factors that best predicted whether people intended to be vaccinated included their confidence in the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine; their worry about catching the virus; and their sense of social and moral norms (i.e. believing that those around them want them to be vaccinated, and that getting the vaccine is a community responsibility, respectively).
This suggests that many people who are unsure whether they need to be vaccinated may still be reachable, but it will likely require more public health communication work. Even partisanship may not be a completely unshakeable stumbling block – a CBS / YouGov poll experiment found evidence that hearing of former President Donald Trump’s support for the vaccine could improve the will of at least some Republicans and Republican-leaning respondents who were hesitant, or even if he didn’t do much to move those who strongly opposed getting the vaccine. Changing the mindsets of those who still categorically refuse the vaccine is probably a more difficult sale.
Sometimes there isn’t much to expect a drastic change: certain traits, like partisanship, are known to remain relatively stable. But in situations where people are likely to encounter a lot of new information – whether it’s the roll-out of a brand new vaccine or the start of a primary election filled with little-known candidates – it’s reasonable to think about it. expect opinions to change significantly.
It’s also difficult for people to predict their own hypothetical future behavior – whether it’s the likelihood of them getting a vaccine within months of appearing at their local pharmacy or an election years away. And it’s just as difficult for them to predict what might change their mind. When a lot of people say they’re still not completely sure, it’s good to take their word for it.
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