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By Krishna N. Das
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – About one in four of the 1.35 billion people in India may have been infected with the coronavirus, said a source with direct knowledge of a government serological survey, suggesting that the actual workload of the country was several times higher than that reported.
India has confirmed 10.8 million COVID-19 infections, the most anywhere outside the United States. But the survey, the results of which are much more conservative than a private investigation last week, indicates that the actual cases in India may have exceeded 300 million.
The state-run Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), which conducted the investigation, said it would not share the results until a press conference on Thursday. The source declined to be named before the official announcement.
It was not immediately clear how many people took part in the last survey.
Following another survey in August and September of blood samples from more than 29,000 people over the age of 10, ICMR concluded that one in 15 Indians had COVID-19 antibodies. The figure has risen to one in six in densely populated urban slums.
An investigation released by the government of the capital New Delhi this week found that more than half of its 20 million residents may have been infected with the coronavirus.
Separate tests carried out on more than 700,000 people across India by diagnostic company Thyrocare Technologies showed that 55% of the population may have already been infected, its chief told Reuters last week.
The World Health Organization says that at least 60% to 70% of a population must be immune to break the chain of transmission.
India reported 11,039 new cases on Wednesday. Deaths increased from 110 to 154,596. Infections and deaths have declined considerably from a peak in mid-September of nearly 100,000 per day.
Its vaccination program, billed by the government as the largest in the world, covered more than 4 million people in 18 days, with a target of reaching 300 million by August.
(Reporting by Krishna N. Das; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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