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| Republic of Arizona
Arizona reported more than 3,200 new cases of COVID-19 and 10 new known deaths on Sunday, as hospital trends continued to worsen.
The continued rise in cases and hospitalizations comes as Arizona’s healthcare system tries to deal with the pressures of a new wave of COVID-19.
“Our forecasting tool presents us with a very dark winter. So I ask all of you to think about what mitigating actions you can do to help us reduce these predictions, ”Dr Marjorie Bessel, Clinical Director of Banner Health, based in Phoenix. , said in a briefing Tuesday.
“Our tool shows that we will exceed 125% of our authorized bed capacity starting around December 4, and that we will continue this for an extended period, probably until mid-January. We are asking everyone to do something now. Please consider the mitigation actions you are taking as an individual, as a family and with your friends. “
Banner Health is Arizona’s largest healthcare delivery system.
A report released last week by Arizona State University predicts that Arizona’s hospital capacity will be exceeded in December and that, without additional public health measures, vacation gatherings will likely cause an additional 600 to 1,200 deaths from COVID- 19 in Arizona by February 1. beyond the death projections of the current scenario.
Arizona identified COVID-19 cases increased from 3,221 Sunday to 325,995, and 10 new known deaths were reported, bringing the total number of known deaths to 6,634, according to the daily report from the Arizona Department of Health Services .
New cases have eclipsed 1,000 in 27 of the past 30 days, with 20 of those days seeing more than 2,000 new cases for the first time since the state’s summer surge. The United States recently reported new record daily cases.
Rates of new cases in Arizona are lower than rates reported in 24 other states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker. Cases are increasing in North Dakota, where the rate of new cases per 100,000 people in the previous seven days was 120.2 on Saturday, the CDC reports. By comparison, Arizona’s rate was 53.7.
The increase in new COVID-19 cases in the summer was an early indicator of more hospitalizations and deaths in the weeks to come.
Arizona could receive its first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine before Christmas, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey said in an interview with KTAR radio on Tuesday. Health care workers and first responders will take priority.
The number of patients hospitalized statewide for known or suspected cases of COVID-19 was 2,458 on Saturday, the highest number reported since July 28. 3,000.
The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in intensive care units in Arizona was 573 on Saturday, which was the highest number of intensive care beds used in a single day since August 5. when the ICU beds used for COVID-19 reached 970.
The number of Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators was 356 on Saturday, which was the highest number of ventilators used in a single day since August 9. As of mid-July, up to 687 patients across the state with or suspected COVID-19 were on ventilators.
Sunday’s dashboard shows 85% of inpatient beds and 89.2% of intensive care beds in use, which includes people being treated for COVID-19 and other patients. COVID-19 patients used 28% of all inpatient beds and 33% of intensive care beds. Overall, 41% of the fans were on.
After Arizona’s hospital occupancy rate hit 90% last weekend, the state’s COVID-19 surge line suspended requests for out-of-state patient transfers.
The percent positivity, which refers to the percentage of positive COVID-19 diagnostic tests, has increased, which many health experts see as an early indicator of a spike in illness.
Among known diagnostic test results from last week, the percentage of positivity was 13%, down from 12% the week before, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating the percentage of positivity. The percentage of positivity was 4% for several weeks in August, September and October, according to state data.
Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona’s seven-day moving average of the percentage of positives at 20.4% on Sunday. This shows that the state’s positivity percentage is on the rise.
A 5% positivity rate is considered a good benchmark for the spread of the disease to be under control.
Arizona cases reported: 325,995
Cases have increased by 3,221, or 0.99%, from the 322,774 cases identified on Saturday since the start of the epidemic.
Cases by County: 205332 in Maricopa, 39,813 in Pima, 17,871 in Yuma, 16,643 in Pinal, 8,118 in Navajo, 7,474 in Coconino, 6,197 in Mohave, 5,391 in Apache, 5,329 in Yavapai, 3,933 in Santa Cruz, 3,639 in Cochise, 2,970 in Gila, 2,194 in Graham, 867 in La Paz and 224 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.
The case rate per 100,000 population is highest in Yuma County, followed by Apache, Santa Cruz and Navajo counties. The rate in Yuma County is 7,771 cases per 100,000 population. For comparison, the average US rate on Saturday was 3,973 cases per 100,000 population, according to the CDC.
The Navajo Nation reported 16,223 cases and 648 confirmed deaths on Saturday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. Tribal chiefs reinstated a three-week lockdown on the home from November 16 due to what authorities called the “uncontrolled spread” of COVID-19 in tribal communities.
The Arizona Corrections Department reported that 2,960 inmates tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday, including 1,068 in Tucson; 41,872 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 1,020 prison staff have self-reported positive, the state prison department said. Twenty people incarcerated in Arizona have been confirmed to have died from COVID-19, and eight more deaths are under investigation.
While race / ethnicity is unknown for 30% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, 29% of cases are Hispanic or Latino, 28% are white, 5% are Native American, 3% are black and 1% are Asian / Pacific Islander.
Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 15% were under 20, 47% were between 20 and 44, 15% were between 45 and 54, 12% were between 55 and 64 and 12% were over 65.
Laboratories performed 2,236,325 diagnostic tests for COVID-19, of which 10.5% came back positive. This number now includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests had increased since mid-May, but began to decline in July and hovered around 4% for several weeks, according to the state. Last week it was 13%, compared to 12% and 11% the previous two weeks. Status numbers omit data from labs that do not communicate electronically.
The state’s health department has started including probable cases such as anyone who tests positive for antigen, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen testing (not related to antibody testing) is a new type of COVID-19 diagnostic test that uses a nasal swab or other fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are usually produced within 15 minutes.
A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there is an increased risk of false negative results, according to the Mayo Clinic. Depending on the situation, Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.
Arizona had the nation’s 24th highest overall infection rate on Saturday. North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Utah, Montana, Idaho, Illinois, Wyoming, Tennessee, Minnesota, Kansas, Rhode Island , Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama are ahead of Arizona. Louisiana, Indiana, Nevada, Missouri, Oklahoma and Florida, according to the CDC.
Arizona’s infection rate is 4,443 cases per 100,000 population, the CDC said. The national average is 3,973 cases per 100,000 people, although rates in hard-hit states at the start of the pandemic may be underestimated due to the lack of available tests in March and April.
Deaths reported: 6,634
Deaths by County: 3,977 in Maricopa, 691 in Pima, 392 in Yuma, 271 in Navajo, 259 in Pinal, 260 in Mohave, 196 in Apache, 171 in Coconino, 120 in Yavapai, 92 in Gila, 79 in Cochise, 69 in Santa Cruz, 35 in Graham, 20 in La Paz and under three in Greenlee.
People aged 65 and over accounted for 4,751 of the 6,634 deaths, or 72%. Subsequently, 16% of deaths were in the 55 to 64 age group, 7% to 45 to 54 year olds and 6% to 20 to 44 year olds.
While race / ethnicity is unknown for 11% of deaths, 44% of those who died were White, 29% were Hispanic or Latino, 11% were Native American, 3% were black, and 1% were Asian / Islander Pacific state data show.
The worldwide death toll on Sunday morning was 1,456,009 and the United States had the highest death toll of any country in the world, at 266,164, according to Johns Hopkins University. Arizona’s death toll of 6,634 deaths represents 2.5% of COVID-19 deaths in the United States on Sunday.
Arizona’s COVID-19 death rate was 91 per 100,000 people on Saturday, according to the CDC, placing it 13th in the country in a state ranking that separates New York and New York state. The US average is 80 deaths per 100,000 people, according to the CDC.
Behind New York City, with 288 deaths per 100,000 population, the CDC placed the highest death rates ahead of Arizona like New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana, Rhode Island, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Illinois, District of Columbia and Michigan.
Contact the reporter at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter @curtis_chels.
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