Eight thoughts about warriors and raptors

"Who knows?", Klay Thompson told reporters about Thursday's game between the Golden State Warriors and the Toronto Raptors. "It could be a preview of June." Thompson is right. Despite all the injuries and the drama in the locker room, Golden State (15-7) is still the favorite to come out of the West for the fifth year in a row. The Warriors' opponent, on Thursday night, has the best record in the NBA (18-4) and scores more than 8.3 points for 100 possessions, his second-highest score in the NBA. June is still a long way off, but here are eight thoughts and questions in November about the two favorites in the final.

1. Warriors regress in the middle

When Steve Kerr was hired as the Warriors' head coach in 2014, he set up an offensive system that unleashed Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson by promoting the 3-pointer and ignoring the mediums. In 2014-15 and In 2016-17, the Warriors took sixth place and the seventh lowest number of mid-range shots. and in 2015-2016, their historic season of 73 wins, they won the highest number of 3 and the second lowest number of mid-range jumpers. The Warriors have helped to change the way offenses play in the NBA. now almost all the league follows the same plan.

So it's fun to watch their numbers this season. The Warriors are in the middle of the pack at the rate of 3 points (17th), and only the Spurs have attempted a greater share of mid-range shots, by Glass cleaning. It's not like the Warriors were taking a lot less than 3; they still have about the same number of shots, from 3 (32%) to the previous four seasons (between 29.1 and 33.6%). The Warriors, however, negotiate layups and dunks against mid-range riders. They tried a percentage of shots lower than any NBA team in the restricted zone (28%) and, since Kerr's first season, they have achieved the highest percentage of mid-range shots (40, 2%). These numbers are actually the reverse of the Raptors teams, led by Dwane Casey, who have been criticized for their archaic style before being changed last season.

Here's how the 2016-2017 Raptors shootout is compared to the 2018-19 Warriors:

Statistics via Glass cleaning. League rank in parentheses.

The selection of Curry throws has not changed over the years. The actors and the big ones do not have either. Kevin Durant and Thompson change though. Durant runs as in early 2010 in Oklahoma City; 58% of his shots came from mid-range, against only 19% of his 3. Thompson's chances on the rim dropped (from 22% in 2015-2016 to 12% this season) and he recorded 49% of shots mid-range, a career high. Their decline is undoubtedly affected by the absence of Draymond Green (who has missed the last six games due to a foot injury) and Curry (who missed the last 10 games due to an injury to the groin); their firing creation (and the gravity of Curry) produce open blows near the edge and behind the bow. But the distribution of Golden State throws has been similar not only in recent games, but throughout the Kerr era.

The warriors have three of the greatest shooters of all time; when they are healthy, they make up for all low value attempts. The Warriors still score 114.2 points for 100 possessions, placing it third in the NBA and one decimal lower than the Raptors (114.3). It's comical and rather amazing to see how the Warriors (a team at the forefront of a revolution) are now behind the curve, while the Raptors (the team that was once stuck in the dark era) now play a progressive style. If the Warriors are healthy, it does not matter in the playoffs. But their old habits could hurt them if one of their superstars is not on the ground.

2. The way from Kawhi to MVP could be with the pass

Leonard can do anything: he can be a scorer of choice or he can lock the best player of the opponent; he can bounce back; he can pass. Tuesday, in a 122 to 114 victory over the Grizzlies, Leonard helped Toronto make his game. Kyle Anderson, who played four seasons with Leonard in San Antonio, played the pre-emptive defense against his former teammate, now Leonard at 17. points on a 5-on-11 shot. When Leonard had a contact, the Grizzlies harassed him with the help of defenders to force him to pass. But Leonard has become a player who has the strength to shoot, but he is precise even when he is under pressure.

Leonard has averaged only 3.1 assists per game this season with the Raptors (and 2.3 for his career), but that does not explain his pass talent. In the clip above, Leonard is not credited with anything in the box, even if he is the one who opened the score by driving the bottom line, firing the defense, then delivering a pass leading to a help . Later in the game, when the Raptors started to create a lead, the stats came up.

Leonard had three assists in the last five minutes on Tuesday, including this powerful training followed by a assist for Kron Lowry for LeBron. It's a beautiful game that few players are able to achieve, but Leonard is not invited to do it. do it as often as other Toronto stars, since Lowry runs the line and Fred VanVleet manages the basics of creation. But when the Raptors need Leonard to create pieces for others, Leonard intervenes.

I think this is Leonard's best quality: he can turn into the type of player his team needs, at any time. Leonard may not publish match statistics to get more MVP votes than Giannis Antetokounmpo, as Giannis is also Milwaukee's leading playmaker. But Leonard is one of the best two-way players in the NBA so far this season, though he still feels like he's not 100% healthy. Once it is, the Raptors will level up.

3. Pascal Siakam, belt holder Hustle-Belt

Haste has never been a concern for Siakam. In the state of New Mexico, it seemed like Siakam was auditioning to play Forrest Gump when he was leading the debates. He played a lot in defense, then he pursues his balls and bounces like a kid after the projection of candies on a piñata.

But the rest of his game was rudimentary: his defensive bases were gross on the perimeter. He could not shoot well outside the restricted area. He made a quick first step, but his loose grip prevented him from scoring on professional level athletes with consistency. Siakam was drafted 27th in 2016 by the Raptors; In the three seasons since then, its role has gradually increased and its weaknesses have become assets. Now he is one of the best players in the NBA.

Siakam is leading the NBA with a 2-point percentage at 69.9%, mainly because of his performance at the break. As at the university, Siakam racked up ground defenses to open up to layups and lobsters. The difference is that he can do it all by himself.

Pieces like the one above are regular occurrences of Siakam. According to Synergy, he completes 1.5 games per game as a running back in transition, the same amount as Blake Griffin. Siakam shoots 18-by-23 on the break. Siakam tightened his handling of the ball and sharpened his footwork, and the Raptors gave him the power to initiate the offense or go from one ocean to the other. This did not happen at the college; Siakam has recorded just five possessions as a ball handler in 68 games in two seasons. It was a blind spot for screening.

It is in the personality of Siakam to give the maximum of effort. As a result, few players run as hard as Siakam. The young, active young men should consider Siakam as a model for their games. There was no doubt that Siakam could be a rider in the NBA rim, but by developing his skill in handling the ball – and landing with a team that allows him to use them – he became one of the most fierce markers of the transition.

4. Three big ones are equal to none

The Warriors did not have the same luck with their men recruited as Toronto with Siakam. Now that David West, Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee have left Golden State, many minutes are available for one of his young greats to grab.

The big three men – Kevon Looney (30th in 2015), Damian Jones (30th in 2016) and Jordan Bell (38th in 2017) – are different players, and none have taken the role of full-time starter. Jones, 23, has not improved for three years in Vanderbilt and has not improved much since his third season in the NBA. He will throw dunks at the lob and block athletic shots, but that will not make up for his faults. Jones still does not perform well in attack and loses defense like a Lyft pilot whose GPS has stopped working.

Bell played fairly regular minutes as a rookie last season and had great moments in the playoffs. But he lacked discipline in Oregon and the rebound has never been his strength. Do you remember not taking two offensive rebounds in the last minute of the Final Four, leaving him in tears after the match? Bell, who turns 24 in January, still likes to hit the ball to try to block a shot, leaving his feet instead of using his length to argue.

These problems are not new to Jones and Bell. It would be nice if they left. They were drawn in an ideal situation for a tall young man to develop. With the superstars surrounding them at all times, their tasks include basic tasks such as scouting, rebounding and defense. But all too often, they screw them up.

Looney is the best of the trio – and the youngest, at age 22, though he's graduated from college before Jones and Bell. Looney magnetically attracts rebounds with a massive 7 '4 "wingspan, plays hard, and does well with little things like boxing and scouting. As a result, he beat Jones and Bell in virtually every game of the season.

Looney fell to the back of the first round of the 2015 round because of concerns about his hip – he was operated on the right hip in August 2015 and then left hip in April 2016 – and its endurance, its engine being too cold for a long time. stretches in his only season at UCLA. Both factors explain why Looney, despite performing better than Jones and Bell, plays only 18.5 minutes per game.

Bell, Jones and Looney will soon lose even more minutes, DeMarcus's cousins ​​being expected to return after Christmas and Draymond Green's return after his toe injury. The warriors will be more than good. With so many elite talents, all they need is a fat man companion or equivalent. It's a shame that none of the big projects they wrote have totally failed.

5. Is the Golden State attack aimed at Boogie?

Speaking of Boogie: I can not wait to see how Kerr uses the Cousins ​​given the confrontation of styles between the big man and the Warriors offensive. Cousins ​​is ranked in the top 10 for registered postups in each of the last five seasons, by synergy. But the Warriors did not score in the first half of the league after scoring a goal in Kerr's five-year tenure.

But that does not mean that Golden State completely ignores the message. Warriors use the post office as a source of creation, as L & # 39; athleticsEthan Strauss has recently been highlighted. You will often find Green or even a reserve like Bell posted, but instead of trying to score, they will first poll the floor to find an open shooter. Boogie, however, prefers to act, and if he fails to get shot, he looks for an open shooter.

The clip above is Boogie's last help before the breakup of his Achilles last January. What a beauty it was: when he doubled his team, he turned around and managed to throw an unbalanced arrow to Darius Miller, who opened the score to 3. With the Warriors, he will be surrounded by more talented shooters than never in a system that preaches off-ball movement. Cousins ​​can and do well. But now, he will have the opportunity to become a true leader of the game.

6. A plan for Fultz? Be like Livingston.

Shaun Livingston's career has not had the anticipated success after being selected fourth overall in the 2004 draft. One of the most grotesque leg injuries in the history of sports l & # 39; 39, prevented him from becoming a star, but Livingston played 14 seasons and won three titles as a vital player. Livingston was and remains a creative finisher on the edge, a smart knife, a savvy smuggler, a hard-nosed defender and a good teammate. What he is not, he is a shooter: he has tried only 77 shots in 3 games over 886 in the regular season and in the playoffs and has only 15 shots. But he is a solid mid-range shooter; He scored 43.5% of his 3,000 2-shot attempts outside the restricted area, including the playoffs. Even without a 3, Livingston became a player who fueled the win.

Watching Livingston, now 33, excels today, I remember Sixers goaltender Markelle Fultz, whose mysterious shoulder injury made him a useless shooter. Fultz only made 41 out of 2 attempts outside the restricted area (28.1%) and only 4 out of 15 attempts (26.7%). Livingston was able to shoot from the average and free-throw line early in his career, but was injured at 21. Fultz was 19 when his shoulder and shooting problems first appeared. Finding his shot will be a challenge for Fultz, who is now 20 years old. But he should watch Livingston as a model for the rest of his game.

Fultz, at 6 feet 4 inches with a wingspan of 6 feet 10 inches, is athletic enough to be a versatile defender. He knows how to pick-and-roll, change gears, find open shooters and finish on the edge. It's important for him to become at least a medium-average shooter, like Livingston, but he has to commit to playing hard for defense and mastering his game. Fultz's career may never be the one to which he expected, but it can still be a success.

7. Fred VanVleet is everywhere in defense

VanVleet was an elite advocate in college; he communicated with his teammates, did not miss rotations and was excellent at picking up and harassing the opposing guards all along the field. Nevertheless, questions arose as to whether his defense skills would translate into the NBA. It is undersized (6 feet, 195 pounds) with a small wingspan of 6 feet 2 inches and was not very fast laterally.

But times have changed since 2016, when it was not designed. VanVleet quickly became a stellar defender. After a slow start to the season against the toes, VanVleet is back on the front of the stage:

This room made me scream. Watch how VanVleet is handcuffed to Mike Conley Jr. VanVleet struggles across a screen, moves sideways, helps Marc Drive, then closes to challenge Conley's shot. This is one of VanVleet's many special possessions in Tuesday's victory in Memphis, and it's one of many properties coming up for the rest of the season. If Warriors-Raptors really is a preview of the final, you can bet that VanVleet will be on the ground for some of the most memorable moments.

8. Is Toronto a reality?

The Raptors are on a 67-win pace, but they have played the fifth-easiest NBA schedule so far. We are about to discover how great they are. Only four of their 14 games after the Warriors clash with a team whose record is currently under .500 (both Cleveland). After Thursday, they will host Denver, Philadelphia and Milwaukee early next month before a road trip on the west coast of the United States against the Clippers, Warriors, Blazers and Nuggets.

I'm buying the Raptors. Kawhi is still Kawhi, Lowry is experiencing an exceptional season and the parts around them are in good condition. Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri has built a strong, deep and versatile lineup that head coach Nick Nurse uses well. Even the simple fact of alternating the five starts between Jonas Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka – the latter apparently did not miss a jumper all season – was a wise choice. But the next few weeks will begin to reveal how well this Toronto team is ready for its real test in June.