New report reveals effects of climate change and air pollution on human health

IIAAS researchers contributed to a major new report The lancet medical journal on the effects of climate change on human health and its consequences for society.

The 2018 report of the research coalition The lancet Countdown: Tracking progress on health and climate change shows that rising temperatures from climate change are already exposing us to an unacceptable risk to health and warns, for the first time, that older people in Europe and in the eastern Mediterranean are particularly vulnerable. extreme heat, much higher than in Africa and South-East Asia. The risk in Europe and the eastern Mediterranean comes from the aging of the population living in the cities, with 42% and 43% of the over 65s being vulnerable to heat. In Africa, 38% are thought to be vulnerable compared to 34% in Asia.

The report also indicates that ambient air pollution has resulted in several million premature deaths from fine particulates in the air of the planet in 2015, a finding of IIASA researchers confirming assessments earlier. Since air pollution and greenhouse gases often share common sources, the mitigation of climate change is a major opportunity for direct benefits to human health.

Doctors, academics and policy professionals from 27 organizations contributed to the analysis and wrote the report. In addition to IIASA, research partners include the World Bank, the World Health Organization (WHO), University College London and Tsinghua University, among others.

Gregor Kiesewetter, researcher at IIASA, led a team of research program on air pollution and greenhouse gases that assessed the dangers of air pollution for human health. A new and important discovery this year is the global attribution of deaths at the source. Kiesewetter and the team found that coal alone is responsible for 16% of premature deaths related to pollution, or about 460,000, making coal removal a "crucial intervention" without risk to public health ".

Kiesewetter and the team used the GAINS model, developed at IIASA, which calculates particulate precursor emissions based on a detailed breakdown of the economic sectors and fuels used.

Ambient air pollution comes largely from the residential sector, mainly solid fuels such as biomass and coal. The industry, the production of electricity, transport and agriculture are also important contributors. Coal should be a key goal for the early elimination of households and the production of electricity as it is highly polluting, but that is not all.

"The award shows that, unfortunately, an approach targeting a single sector or fuel alone will not solve the problem – air pollution is a complex issue that requires integrated strategies covering many sectors, which will vary from one sector to another. country to country, usually with the regional and local GAINS model: to advise policymakers on the most effective approaches to combating air pollution in their specific contexts, "said Kiesewetter.

The report contains a number of other main conclusions: –

• 157 million more vulnerable people were the subject of a heat wave in 2017 compared to 2000 and 18 million more than in 2016.
• 153 billion hours of work were lost in 2017 due to extreme heat resulting from climate change. China alone has lost 21 billion hours, equivalent to one year of work for 1.4% of its labor force. India has lost 75 billion hours, or 7% of its total labor force.
• The heat greatly exacerbates urban air pollution: 97% of cities in low- and middle-income countries do not comply with WHO's air quality guidelines.
• Heat stress, an early and severe effect of climate change, is commonplace and we, and the health systems we rely on, are ill equipped to deal with it.
• Rising temperatures and non-seasonal heat are responsible for the spread of cholera and dengue, with the vector capacity of their transmission increasing in many endemic areas.
• The average change in global temperature at which humans are exposed is more than double the average global change, with temperatures increasing by 0.8 ° C compared to 0.3 ° C.

Hugh Montgomery, Co-Chair of The lancet Countdown to Health and Climate Change and Director of the Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London: "Heat stress hits hard – especially seniors living in cities and towns. people with conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes or chronic kidneys The regions of northern England and California, as far as Australia, are affected by wild fires causing death, displacement and death. losses of housing as well as respiratory consequences due to smoke inhalation. "

The report, which examines 41 distinct indicators across a range of themes, indicates that urgent action is needed to protect people from the impacts of climate change. In particular, stricter labor regulations are needed to protect workers from extreme heat. The hospitals and health systems we rely on must be better equipped to cope with extreme temperatures in order to cope with the situation. But the report also points out that there are limits to adapting to rising temperatures and that, if nothing has been done, climate change and heat will overwhelm even the most energy-efficient systems. powerful. It is therefore imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The year 2018 has been even hotter in many parts of the world and the global study on the attribution of weather in northern Europe has shown that the heat wave of this summer was twice as likely to be produced because of climate change caused by humans. Of the 478 world cities surveyed in the report, 51% expect climate change to seriously compromise their public health infrastructure.

"The world has not yet reduced its emissions effectively, and the rapid pace of climate change is threatening our lives and the lives of our children, and as we see today, we are running out of our carbon budget to keep warming below two. degrees from here 2032. The impacts of climate change on health are above that level threaten to overwhelm our emergency and health services, "said Anthony Costello, co-chair of The lancet Countdown.

Other findings of the report include: a new indicator mapping extreme rainfall that identifies South America and Southeast Asia among the most flood-prone and drought-prone regions and, with respect to food security , the report indicates that 30 countries are experiencing a downward trend in yields a 10-year trend that had already seen an overall improvement. Yield potential is estimated to decrease in all regions as extreme weather conditions become more frequent and extreme.