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The end of the fourth quarter is not far off and it looks like Tesla will once again set records for electric vehicle deliveries, increase demand for its vehicles and silence its sellers.
If Tesla is able to maintain these delivery figures over the coming quarters and have the free cash flow and profits promised by Musk, all the negative discussions are fair, and Tesla is truly the most disruptive startup program in the world. world in the automotive industry sector.
Here are estimates of delivery and production figures for the fourth quarter from reliable sources, followed by some news and discussion.
A profitable Model S at $ 35,000?
Tesla said it could not be profitable on a 3 model at $ 35,000 without a constant production week of 5,000 units.
The current estimates for the fourth quarter of 2018 are the production of 60,750 models 3 and 25,116 S + X models combined for a total of 85,866. Total forecast deliveries for the quarter are 61,976 models 3 and 27,872 combined S + X models, for a total of 89,848. These conservative figures come from Troy Teslike, a Tesla enthusiast, and his VIN Tesla Tracker and database. These numbers and other estimates can be found here.
If that is correct, it means that Tesla has managed to maintain a Model 3 treatment rate of about 5,000 units a week (compared to 4,300 units a week the previous quarter), and maybe that's not enough. a $ 35,000 profitable model 3 is at your fingertips.
Musk said, during the previous call for results, that it was possible to reach 7,000 units per week (or 1,000 per day) with minimal investment. According to Electrek, Musk asked the production staff to reach a production of 50 units per hour by the end of the month, a monthly production of about 30,000 units, or 7,000 per week .
Sales of the European model 3 have not yet contributed to the demand, pending the approval of the EU.
Lower prices in China, commercial war and Gigafactory
Last week, Reuters announced that Tesla would reduce its prices on X and S models in China from 12% to 26%, in order to counteract the effect of 40% of the customs duties imposed by the trade war on cars built in China. United States.
Although we are in the region, Tesla's October sales figures in China are causing some disagreement. According to the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla has sold only 211 cars in China, a 70 percent drop from last year in the world's largest market for electric vehicles.
A spokesman for Tesla told Fortune that the report was "extremely inaccurate" and that it was spread by a "significant" margin. Tesla did not reveal the actual figure. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of CPCA, told the South China Morning Post that sales figures are based on deliveries to final buyers.
Last month, Tesla secured a 9 million square foot land in Shanghai for its next Gigafactory, according to the Shanghai Land Planning and Resources Bureau. Tesla IR director Aaron Chew, quoted by RBC research analyst Joe Spak, said Tesla finance the gigafactory with $ 1.3 billion in low-interest local debt and $ 700 million in Tesla's equity over the next two years. Tesla did not say that construction had begun in China.
Winter with a Tesla
My 72 Datsun 240Z needed a full throttle on the winter mornings – and upstate New York upset the reliability of the vehicles, although this did not generate much pressure.
That's the case when you are Tesla.
Tesla has released a software update to help the Model 3 adapt to the cold weather problems that plague its owners, such as windows, doors, door handles and frozen loading ports. And EV load in winter becomes a challenge if the water heater pulls 5 kilowatts.
Muse tweets and various stuff
Musk tweeted The priorities of Tesla, in order of priority of resources but not necessarily of the production ramp, are: model Y, solar tiles, pick-up, semi and Roadster.
Speaking of solar roof tiles, local television reported that 800 people were working in Tesla's 1.2 million square foot Buffalo solar plant. This exceeds the local employment goals in the plant, now dedicated to the construction of these controversial tiles.
Musk tweeted that Tesla might be interested in work with Daimler on a Sprinter electric van. A spokesman for Daimler said the company appreciated Musk's interest in the van, but did not comment further.
The CEO tweeted that model 3 shipments are expected in Taiwan in the middle of 2019.
Recent news regarding the restructuring of General Motor and the closure of factories is a potentially positive development for Tesla, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank claims that GM's change could give Tesla another way to gain capacity for the Y model – possibly allowing the purchase of a former GM plant at a great price.
Tesla has just lost its head of global security after less than a year of employment. Here is a list of executive departures since 2016. Is it a normal business figure in a difficult car boot with a demanding CEO?
The biggest year for Tesla and electric vehicles
We are about a month from the end of Tesla's quarter and it will be the biggest year of the year for the company.
Tesla Model 3 is crushing its competitors in the United States in the United States. According to Inside EVs, Tesla sold 17,750 copies of its model 3 in October. The Chevrolet Bolt came in a very close second with 2,075 units, followed by 2,001 units of the Toyota Prius Prime, 1,935 units of the Honda Clarity and 1,475 of the Chevrolet Volt. Tesla has sold more than 95,882 3 models to date.
A short-term challenge for Tesla is to be profitable in the last quarter of the year. A long-term challenge is to finance its many development projects without capital increase.
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