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Local staple food prices, maize, showed contrasting trends in the Southern African region in October.
According to the monthly price analysis of the Food and Agricultural Organization, in South Africa, maize prices fell slightly: white maize fell by 0.2% and yellow maize by 0.9% to 2373, 66 rand per ton and 396.72 rand per ton.
The price change was the result of pressure from the strengthening of the national currency and expectations of improved planting for the 2019 crop.
"The year-over-year contraction of production in 2018 and concerns about the occurrence of unusually reduced rainfall later in the current season, combined with an El Niño event, have limited the price decline and kept it above of their values a year ago, "said FAO.
The general weakness of the national currency and the fallout from the international market also contributed to the high price level. On the other hand, local wheat prices in South Africa strengthened in October and were slightly higher than their values the previous year, reflecting higher international prices given the country's reliance on wheat. imports.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2018-2027 predicts that wheat production in South Africa will decline as farmers reduce the area under wheat production.
"The problem with wheat in South Africa is that in a free market environment, growers prefer to plant more profitable crops such as canola, oats, corn and soybeans," the report says.
In Zambia, prices of cereals and maize products increased seasonally and increased by 20 percent compared to October of last year, with seasonal increases being amplified by the reduction in production in 2003. 2018. In mid-October, the government imposed temporary export restrictions on maize to ease pressure on foreign markets and moderate domestic price increases (FPMA Food Policies
In October, the national average price of white maize in Zambia was K2.02 (17 US cents) per kilogram, and that of maize flour breakfast was 3.33 KZ (28 US cents) per kilogram; that of white rolling corn flour was K2.45) per kg.
FAO also reported that in Malawi grain maize prices had continued to rise, reaching levels well above those of the previous year, mainly due to the sharp decline in the price of maize grain. production in 2018.
In addition, in Mozambique, maize prices would have been higher than in the previous year. Elsewhere in the subregion, maize production in 2018 has been estimated to be near average or above average.
In Namibia, maize meal prices weakened in October, but remained unchanged at Eswatini in September. In both countries, although dependent on supplies of South African cereals, prices were generally lower than their values in the corresponding month of last year, mainly because of the above-average 2018 harvests.
In Zimbabwe, as maize flour prices declined and declined each year, thanks to generally sufficient domestic supplies, wheat flour prices rose in September to levels higher than those of the United States. last year.
The increase reflects the increase in international prices, combined with liquidity constraints that have disrupted access to external supplies. However, domestic production of wheat in 2019 is expected to increase, which should ease the pressure of supply and weigh on prices.
In Madagascar, local rice prices strengthened seasonally in October and were close to the high levels of the previous year due to generally limited domestic supply, despite an estimated increase in the 2018 harvest. .
Despite changes in grain prices in October, the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa remains depressed, with most farmers now devoting more land to cash crops.
The OECD-FAO Outlook Report for 2018-2027 indicated that total cereal imports from sub-Saharan Africa in 2018-2019 are estimated by the IGC at 29.4 million tonnes, compared with 27 , 6 million the previous year, the main importer being Nigeria, which will import 5.6 million tons. million tonnes of grain in 2018-2019, up 5.5 million.
Then comes Kenya, which will import 3.3 million tonnes, compared to 3.2 million, Sudan, 2.8 million, against 2.7 million, and South Africa, which will import 2.1 million tonnes.
southerntimesafrica.com
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