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In the ensuing debate, unsubstantiated data and facts about Botswana's elephant population are used to support the hunting program. Many of these statistics have no scientific basis, so we will demystify some of them.
What is the actual size of Botswana's elephant population?
In recent months, politicians have cited Botswana's elephant population at 237,000 people.
However, the African Elephant Status Report (AESR) estimates that Botswana's elephant population is 131,626 individuals migrating over an area of 228,073 km.2. The vast majority of these elephants are found in the northern region which includes Chobe, Moremi and the Okavango Delta.
This makes Botswana's elephant population the largest in Africa, comprising about 30% of the total wild population of the continent, which is estimated at 415,000.
One of the reasons for the disagreement over the size of Botswana's elephant population is that these animals are part of a large free-migration population estimated at 216,000 individuals. These animals regularly cross the borders between Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe and travel over an area of 440 000 km.2 Kavango-Zambezi transboundary conservation area (KAZA TFCA).
According to the African Elephant Specialist Group, a coordinated cross-border survey would be the only way to obtain more accurate population figures. Until then, the 130,000 elephants of Botswana are our best guess.
The African Elephant Specialist Group of the IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC) produced the REES in 2016 and is considered the most comprehensive document and the most Update on the status of the African elephant in its nature.
Is Botswana's elephant population increasing?
The ever-increasing elephant population is a factor that encourages reconsideration of the ban on hunting, but is the population increasing?
According to AESR, Botswana's elephant population has actually decreased by 15% in the previous 10 years. This decline is not as dramatic as in most of Africa and reflects the country's strong conservation policies.
Over the past decade, losses of at least 110,000 elephants, or 30% of its population, have been reported on the African continent.
The cause of this decline is mainly due to the poaching crisis, triggered by the demand for ivory in East Asia. Although Tanzania has suffered the largest losses (60%), poaching has also severely affected populations in southern Africa, including Zimbabwe, Angola and Mozambique.
How many elephants, is it too much?
That is the million dollar question. The carrying capacity of elephants is often considered a magic number that a region can withstand without damaging ecological change.
Politicians often quote for Botswana a carrying capacity of 50,000 elephants (0.2 elephant per2) and even claim that there are 7 to 8 times too many elephants.
"There is no scientific basis for the statement that 50,000 elephants is the correct number for Botswana; it's an arbitrary number, "says Keith Lindsay (conservation biologist working for Amboseli Trust for Elephants).
A wear
capacity of about 0.4 elephants per km2 is a very used one. Botswana with a range of up to 260,000 km2 in the rainy season and its 130,000 current elephants are therefore more or less in this "acceptable" range.
However, "the application of the term transport capacity for elephants in Botswana – or elsewhere in the world – is a postponement of commercial farming that has no real meaning in highly variable African ecosystems, "Lindsay continues.
This much quoted carrying capacity of 0.4 elephants per km2 comes from a "policy of management of the Hwange game reserve obsolete and without scientific basis," says Ian McDonald (lecturer in wildlife management).
Human-Elephant Conflict (HEC)
In Botswana, it is undeniable that HEC is increasing and the Okavango Oriental panhandle is often used to illustrate this point.
About 16,000 people share a living space with 11,000 elephants in this region. However, studies in this area show that even though elephants cause damage, they are considered an integral part of Botswana's natural heritage.
Studies have also shown that population densities of elephants and humans are not determinants of CHE, but rather land use and competition for resources.
Botswana's elephants have expanded their range by 35% and are repopulating historic ranges, where they have not been seen for 50 years.
Unfortunately, there is no single solution for all complex situations involving people, wildlife and the economy. All of these statistics, for example, are not a solution for HEC, which is very real for the people who compete on a daily basis for water, food and space with Botswana's vast elephant population in the wild.
Hunting quotas as a management tool
In the 10 years preceding the ban on hunting in 2014, CITES annual export quota for Botswana ranged from 420 to 800 elephants. This translates into an average of 341 CITES import permits and 321 export permits issued each year.
Hunting quotas of these levels would have little or no impact on the size of the elephant population and trophy hunting can not therefore be considered as an effective management tool.
Lindsay adds, "Trophy hunting can not or should not have much effect on local elephant densities, otherwise trophy-sized animals will not be there for hunters to shoot. So that [trophy hunting] has no direct effect on the reduction of HEC.
Some of the widely accepted and necessary interventions to reduce HEC include elephant education and awareness, understanding and identification of elephant migration corridors, rapid response to HEC, allocation of agricultural parcels to elephants appropriate areas and the promotion of eco-tourism businesses.
It is important to note that Botswana should not have to bear alone the burden of this important but vital elephant population. Neighboring range States should be part of long-term solutions for transboundary protection and ecosystem connectivity, to allow for the continuous natural dispersal of herds within KAZA TFCA.
DR. LOUISE DE WAAL
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