Germany shrugs off recession fears, China's economy stumbles goal – live business | Business

President Xi also told his fellow Asian leaders that countries should not dictate to each other – another jibe at America's foreign policy approach?

"Exchanges and mutual learning among civilizations should be reciprocal and equal.

They should be diversified and multidirectional, rather than compulsory or coercive. They should not be one-way. "

China's president has blasted trade protectionism in his first major speech since the US imposed higher tariffs on $ 200bn of Chinese goods.

Opening the Conference on Asian Civilizations in Beijing, Xi Jinping urged countries to "close their doors and hide behind them – a clear signal to Washington.

Xi also criticized "just stupid" those who think their race is superior to others.

CNN has more details:

Opening the Conference on Asian Civilizations in Beijing on Wednesday, Xi said there was no need for "civilizations to clash with each other." "No civilization is superior over others.

The thought that one's own race and civilization are superior and the inclination to remold or replace other civilizations are just stupid, "he said, adding to do so would invite" catastrophic consequences. "

Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer of Close Brothers Asset Management, has welcomed the pick-up in eurozone growth last quarter.

"Growth in the EU continues to beat expectations, proving the disastrous beginning of the year to be an anomaly. While the region has a long way to go, things are looking up; the services and housebuilding are doing better than expected, eurozone unemployment is at a ten year low, and wage growth is beginning to improve. This should help consumer confidence, in turn, consumption.

However, it can be warned that the US-China trade war could

The eurozone is an export-led economy, and global trade is at its weakest in a decade. Trade voltages continue to take center stage for the world economy, looming as a circuit breaker to global recovery. Unless we reach resolution, the EU must be open to tax intervention to avoid a downturn. "

Employment growth across the eurozone has also picked up, in another encouraging sign for the region:

We now have confirmation that the eurozone grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019.

That matches the initial estimate two weeks ago, and is twice as fast as in Q4 2018.

Eurostat has also confirmed that the European Union grew by 0.5%, with the UK one of the best-faring major economies.

However, that's still slower than the US which managed 0.8% growth last quarter

Here's some highlights from the EU:

• Eurozone: + 0.4% quarter-on-quarter
• European Union: + 0.5%
• Spain: + 0.7%
• UK: + 0.5%
• Netherlands: + 0.5%
• Portugal: + 0.5%
• Germany: + 0.4%
• La France: + 0.3%
• Austria: + 0.3%

In another worrying sign, China's fixed-asset investment growth also slowed last month.

FAI grew 6.1% in the first four months of 2019, down from 6.3% in January-March alone, the National Bureau of Statistics reported.

That shows companies are cutting back on new equipment, and have the trade with the US hits demand.

Today's disappointing Chinese economic data is not a blip.

As this tweet shows, sales and business investment growth have been slowing for months, while industrial production has been jittery:

European stock markets have fallen into the red this morning, despite the news from Germany.

Instead, the disappointing slowdown in China's retail sales and industrial output growth is worrying investors, coming on top of the existing trade war jitters.

Italy's FTSE MIB is the worst performer, down 0.7% after deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini is threatening to break EU budget rules yesterday.

The French CAC and German DAX are both down 0.5%, while UK's FTSE 100 is basically flat.

Matthias Weber, Economist at the University of St.Gallen, also believes Germany is not investing enough – because it's obsessed with balancing its budget.

Public schools, railways, roads, bridges, childcare centers, public schools and renewable energy are much needed. Such investments could currently be made at an extremely low (even negative) interest rate and they would boost the slowing aggregate demand.

It is unfortunate that some politicians have an economically unsound "concept" of zero debt and therefore miss out on these opportunities for Germany.

Germany's economy ministry has welcomed the pick-up in growth last quarter – but also warned that the US-China trade war is still a key threat.

In a new report, the ministry says:

"The German economy has not yet overcome its weak phase with the beginning of the year – it will only be sustainable if the external environment improves."

Weak economic data from China is concerned that its economy is suffering from the trade war with the US.

Chinese retail sales growth This year they are worried about economic conditions, or because they've just got less disposable income.

Industrial production also struggled – growth slowed to just 5.4% per year, the joint-weakest reading since the 2008 financial crisis. That could be a sign of weakening demand, or both.

This really should be alarming bells ringing in Beijing – and could force policymakers to take fresh steps to help its economy.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says:

There are no sugar coating these numbers, they are dreadful and show that the March was probably a flash in the pan, or a symptom of a distortion caused by Chinese New Year.

This sharp slowdown increases the likelihood that we will be more likely to seek help from the world. point in time.

Over in Beijing, China has hit out at Huawei.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang has been criticized for "smear" Chinese companies.

He was commenting on reports that Donald Trump will sign an executive order this week banning US telecoms firms using telecommunications equipment made by firms which pose a national security risk.

That could be up against a Huawei, due to its close ties to the Chinese state [the US has already charged the company with fraud and theft of intellectual property].

Yesterday, Huawei's chairman offered to sign a "no-spy agreement" with the British government – a remarkable offer really.

Germany's return to growth in the Rhine river.

The Rhine suffered a large decrease in water levels last summer, which prevented some large barges from using it to shift goods. That drove up transport costs, and had a damaging impact on economic output.

Bloomberg says it was a factor behind last year's stagnation

Europe's largest economy barely skirted a recession last year after it had a hit of factors including disruption to automobile production and low water levels on the River Rhine transport artery. While some of these issues were faded, more pronounced protectionist measures could dampen business sentiment in the heavy export nation. Thyssenkrupp on Tuesday noted a "weakening macro environment" as reported in drop in profit.

"Europe, and especially Germany," said Erik Nielsen, chief economist at UniCredit Group. "They are going to be more than the others, so this is the big fear."

Germany's welcome to growth in the last quarter of the year, argues Carsten Brzeski of Dutch bank ING.

He writes:

Today's GDP is balm for the soul of the German economy.

It also confirms that we are not in the German economy. Some of the last year's one-off factors, the German automotive industry might have seen better times. In fact, the ongoing dichotomy between sustained and positive domestic demand and a positive outcome.

But … Brzeski also argues that Germany needs to boost its investment (both by the government and by companies):

Just as weak GDP data in the second half of the year 2018 was not purely a result of wrong policies and business decisions or a sign that the German economic business model should be discarded, so today is not a reason for complacency.

Domestic demand has helped Germany's economy extract itself from its recent stagnation, points out Aila Mihr of Danske Bank:

But it was so recent that gloomy, so 2019 could still be tough.

Germany's economy ministry Peter Altmaier has hailed today's growth figures, calling them "first ray of hope".

But Altmaier also warned that the US-China trade war is still threatening the German economy.

"The international trade disputes are still unresolved. We must do everything possible to find acceptable solutions that enable free trade. "

Altmaier also called for red tape and taxes to be cut to support German firms.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling over coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Germany's economy has shrugged off the risk of a recession by bursting back to growth.

New government figures show that German GDP expanded by 0.4% in January-March, an encouraging sign for the European economy.

That ends at six-month period with no growth at all! Germany contracted by 0.2% in July-September last year, and then stagnated in October-December.

That means Germany has only grown by 0.7% over the last 12 months, dragged down by a global economy and problems in its car sector.

At 0.4%, Germany has matched the average eurozone growth so far this year is a little slower than the UK's 0.5% growth.

Private equity, growth rate, German growth, while government spending declined.

Both imports and exports rose during the quarter, which also suggested domestic and overseas demand has picked up.

More to follow!

Also coming up

The US-China trade war still hangs over the global economy like a smog.

Investors are clinging to hopes of an eventual deal, sending stocks higher in Asia today after a bounce back on Wall Street last night. Some conciliatory tweets from Donald Trump last night, promising a deal when the time is right, are helping.

We'll also be watching the energy sector, after it emerged that the opposition Labor government has drawn up plans to nationalist

The agenda

• 10am BST: Eurozone GDP for Q1 2019 (second estimate)
• 1.30pm BST: US retail sales