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Using NASA’s Deep Space Network and state-of-the-art computer models, scientists were able to significantly reduce uncertainties about Bennu’s orbit, determining its probability of total impact up to 2300 is approximately 1 in 1750 ( or 0.057%). The researchers were also able to identify September 24, 2182 as the most significant single date in terms of potential impact, with an impact probability of 1 in 2,700 (or about 0.037%). Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
Like hitting a target with your eyes closed
Two statisticians put into perspective the chances of the asteroid Bennu hitting Earth in the next 300 years.
Even Harry Stamper would probably like those odds.
Recently Nasa has updated its prediction on the chances that asteroid Bennu, one of the two most dangerous known objects in our solar system, will strike Earth in the next 300 years. New calculations put the odds at 1 in 1,750, a number slightly higher than previously thought.
The space agency, which has been tracking building-sized rock since its discovery in 1999, has revised its predictions based on new tracking data.
Even with the small change in odds, it seems likely that we won’t be faced with the kind of storyline featured in the 1998 sci-fi disaster movie “Armageddon” when Stamper, played by Bruce Willis, and his team had to try to figure it out. detonate a huge asteroid that was on a collision course causing extinction with Earth.
This Bennu mosaic was created from observations made by NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, which was in close proximity to the asteroid for more than two years. Credit: NASA / Goddard / University of Arizona
(In an independent development, NASA plans to launch a mission in November to see if a spacecraft could strike a large space rock and change its course just in case it needs to.)
This begs the question of how good should we feel compared to our chances? We put this question to Lucas B. Janson and Morgane Austern, both assistant professors of statistics.
They compared Bennu’s chances of hitting Earth to the approximate probability of:
- Flip a coin and have the first 11 attempts, all lands are heads.
- Four random people sharing a birthday in the same month (odds are 1 in 1750 exactly).
- Throw a dart at a dart board with your eyes closed and hit a target.
- Win the state’s VaxMillions lottery on two separate days if every eligible adult resident is entered and a new draw is held every second.
At the end of the line ? Janson, an IT affiliate, says that if he was a gambler, he would put his money on our good health. Again, he emphasizes, if he is wrong, “Paying would be the least of my concerns.”
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