NASA is preparing to cancel its space launch system? – The crazy fool

So long SLS – we hardly knew it?

It starts to look like it could be the epitaph etched on the $ 35 billion mega-space NASA space launch system, a gigantic beast of a rocket capable of lifting at least 70 metrics (if it is never built) tons payload in orbit – or visit the Moon, or even Mars.

Now, there is no certainty at this date that the Space Launch System, or SLS, be canceled. In fact, in response to reports of delays and budget cuts in the program, NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine recently reassured fans of space: "NASA [still] committed to building and piloting the SLS. "

Again, the fact that Bridenstine felt compelled to say that something suggests that something is wrong – and that the future of SLS might not be as secure as that of key contractors. Boeing (NYSE: BA), master of work on SLS, Northrop Grumman (rocket boosters), Aerojet Rocketdyne (main engines), and Lockheed Martin (who builds the Orion capsule that sits atop all of the above) might like it.

So what's the risk here?

Follow the money

Consider the evidence.

The Trump Administration released its 2020 presidential budget request for NASA earlier this month, proposing that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration be funded to the tune of $ 21 billion for the fiscal year beginning in October 2019. This represents an increase of almost 9% compared to the proposed NASA budget in President Trump's first year, but for example 2% (or about $ 500 million) less that Congress has attributed to him.

Numerous NASA programs have been removed, including funds for earth science projects (down 8%), astrophysics (down 20%) and a "wide field infrared telescope" (fully deleted). However, few programs have been hit harder than the Space Launch System (SLS), which could see its funding cut by $ 375 million, NASA "deferring" the development of a planned upgrade to " Block 1B "of the rocket. capacity.

Now, do not cry as well difficult for SLS. The project is expected to receive nearly $ 1.8 billion in funding next year, an additional $ 1.3 billion to develop the Lockheed crew vehicle, and more than $ 800 million for creation. a "lunar bridge" to visit by Orion – in preparation for the moon. landing.

It seems, however, that NASA may lose confidence in its animal project, as some of the other Bridenstine, director of NASA, revealed.

Move on SLS. SpaceX can handle that

A few weeks ago, while he was testifying before the US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, Bridenstine warned senators that the Space Launch System (SLS) "was struggling to keep up with its schedule." for a first unmanned launch around the moon by June 2020. After experiencing innumerable delays and schedule failures throughout its development, Exploration Mission-1, which would use a rocket SLS to launch an unmanned Orion capsule in front of the Moon and then bring it home, could potentially be postponed to 2021, according to analysts.

At present, there are still options for using SLS to reach the moon in 2020. Just this week, for example, NASASpaceflight.com has announced a possible NASA initiative to reduce the six-month "Green Run Stage" program, including a firing test of SLS 'RS-25 main engines (simulating the stress that the engines would experience when launching in space). Instead, NASA would allow a brief five-second static fire test on the Kennedy Space Center site, which would reduce the EM-1 launch time by several months.

Now, reducing quality assurance requirements may not be the best way to ensure a trouble-free launch. But at least with the unmanned EM-1 mission, that would not pose a risk to human life. If this speeds up the SLS program and brings the rocket closer to completion, it is likely that Boeing would be willing to accept the idea.

Especially when we consider the alternative.

In his Senate testimony, Bridenstine suggested that, in the interest of not further delaying the EM-1, NASA might consider using rockets other than SLS to launch the mission. For example, a heavy transport rocket (such as a Delta IV ULA or SpaceX's Falcon Heavy) could be used to place Orion in orbit. A second rocket could then lift a fully powered vehicle. third go into orbit to associate with Orion and propel him to the moon and back.

It would not be a one-off mission around the moon, as would a launch of SLS. Again, Delta and Falcon are both proven and ready-to-fly launchers. SLS is not.

The result for shareholders of space companies

But here is the thing: Yes NASA launches the EM-1 using commercial rockets other than the SLS, which would question the very idea that the SLS is essential to deep space flight. Despite Bridenstine's protests, a successful EM-1 mission without SLS could weaken the need to build SLS, thus putting in jeopardy billions of dollars of development for companies such as Boeing, Northrop Grumman and Aerojet Rocketdyne. This could also threaten SLS 'projected continuous revenue stream, which is expected to cost more than $ 1 billion per launch.

Now, the news is not all bad. Since Boeing and Lockheed are co-owners of ULA and share the revenue from ULA launches, an EM-1 mission using a Delta IV rocket would give them at least a chance to raise funds. some revenue from NASA's efforts to return to the moon. The biggest risk here (for Boeing investors – Lockheed is guaranteed to earn Orion revenue regardless of the type of rocket) is that NASA might decide to launch the EM-1 using SpaceX Falcon Heavy rockets.

Such a decision would pose a real risk to Boeing – and the longer it takes to build a functional SLS, the higher the risk.