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Scientists have calculated the probability of potentially dangerous asteroid Bennu hitting Earth between 2021 and 2300 after studying it for more than two years.
NASA revealed this information in a press release today, saying that although Bennu’s chances of hitting Earth are still very low, the organization has reduced its likelihood of impact. He did this by studying its size, shape, mass, composition, spin, and orbital path.
A Bennu mosaic, Photo credit: NASA / Goddard / University of Arizona
“Using NASA’s Deep Space Network and cutting-edge computer models, scientists were able to significantly reduce the uncertainties about Bennu’s orbit by determining that its probability of total impact through 2300 is about 1 in 1750 (or 0.057%) “, according to the press release. bed. “The researchers were also able to identify September 24, 2182, as the most significant single date in terms of potential impact, with an impact probability of 1 in 2,700 (or about 0.037%).”
OSIRIS-REx spent more than two years near Bennu before finally leaving the area on May 10, and studied virtually everything he could on the asteroid. He even recovered a sample of the rock and dust from the asteroid, which will return to Earth aboard OSIRIS-REX on September 24, 2023.
Study leader Davide Farnocchia said NASA had never modeled the trajectory of an asteroid at this level of precision – a very high degree of certainty until 2135 – before. The measurements taken by OSIRIS-REx allow NASA to determine Bennu’s orbit over time and whether or not it will pass through a gravitational keyhole, which is “an area in space that would put Bennu on the map.” route of a future impact with Earth if the asteroid were to pass through them at certain times due to Earth’s gravitational pull, “when it approached 2135.
The team also studied the Yarkovsky effect and its effects on Bennu.
“Among these forces, the sun’s heat plays a crucial role,” the statement said. “As an asteroid moves around the Sun, sunlight heats its diurnal face. Because the asteroid rotates, the heated surface will turn away and cool as it enters the night face. As it cools, the asteroid will turn. surface releases infrared energy, which generates a small amount of thrust on the asteroid. ”
Study co-investigator Steve Chesley said the Yarkovsky effect affects all asteroids, including Bennu. OSIRIS-REx gave NASA the first opportunity to measure this effect as Bennu traveled around the Sun. Chesley said the effect on Bennu is equivalent to “the weight of three grapes constantly acting on the asteroid.” They also said the effect is small but significant in determining Bennu’s future impact over the decades and centuries to come.
Others include the gravity of the Sun, the planets, their moons, and other asteroids in its path. The team also studied solar wind pressure, drag caused by interplanetary dust, and Bennu particle ejection events. They even had to take into account the force exerted by OSIRIS-REx on Bennu when he collected the rock sample and left the asteroid surface.
“Although a probability of impact of 0.057% in the year 2300 and a probability of impact of 0.037% on September 24, 2182 are low, this study highlights the crucial role that OSIRIS-REx operations have played in the precise characterization of Bennu’s obituary, “the statement said. .
To learn more about asteroids, read this story about a metallic asteroid between Mars and Jupiter that’s estimated to be worth $ 10,000 billion, then read how humans could live on a floating asteroid belt in space. Get this first glimpse of an asteroid sample from space, then learn how a piece of meteorite found in Africa could have come from an ancient planet.
Wesley LeBlanc is a freelance news writer and guidebook maker for IGN. You can follow it on Twitter @LeBlancWes.
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