NASA warns moon oscillation could lead to more flooding, more often

The moon is flickering. There really is no other way to put it. A slight change in the moon’s orbit – an oscillation, if you will – raised both eyebrows and questions about the effect such a slight quake can have here on Earth. Funny to say, of course, but the potential ramifications of a moon swing worry scientists for the future.

In a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change in June, scientists suggest that by the 2030s the oscillation will have enough effect on the moon’s gravitational pull to have an impact on level rise. from the sea, seeing coastal cities all around the United States undergoing a drastic shock. increased flooding. Climate change is already causing global sea levels to rise in two ways: warming waters cause the ocean to expand and increase the melting of glaciers and ice caps.

For low-lying towns that already face this kind of “high tide” flood risk, this could lead to significant damage and concern in the not-so-distant future.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said: “The combination of the moon’s gravitational pull, sea level rise and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coasts and beyond. worldwide. NASA’s Sea Level Change team provides crucial information so we can plan, protect and prevent damage to the environment and to the livelihoods of people affected by flooding. “

Scientists identified tipping points by studying the locations of tide gauges on the US coast (excluding Alaska). Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s existing sea level rise scenarios and flood thresholds, they were able to create a statistical framework that projects probable scenarios over the next 60 years.

This will help reduce the likely lead times for major flooding and determine the likelihood of a flood occurring in different months of the year. Such information could be crucial for residents and coastal planners.

But what does the wobbly moon have to do with it? Climate scientists have warned that global sea levels have been rising – and will continue to rise – for some time. How does the oscillation change what’s already happening?

Scientists have actually known about the oscillation for centuries – it was first discovered in 1728 – but the problem is that sea level has already risen to a point where we now have to consider how the existing tidal cycles of the moon will affect the globe.

Experts have divided the moon’s 18.6-year orbit into two halves, or tidal cycles. For the duration of the first half, the tides on Earth are suppressed, with below average high tides and above average low tides – a “meet in the middle” effect. For the other half, however, the effect is reversed. The tides are amplified: high tides increase and low tides decrease.

The problem is that in the 2030s, when the sea level is expected to rise dramatically, the Earth will be in the amplified part of the tidal cycle. High tides will be higher than ever, causing a dramatic increase in the number of coastal flooding.

With this new predictive model, scientists can determine when and where these floods are most likely to occur – and potentially save lives and livelihoods in the process.