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A ROGUE Glacier dubbed "the most dangerous in the world" may melt completely – causing a catastrophic rise in sea level.
Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, is now approaching a "tipping point" that would cause an unstoppable flow of ice into the ocean.
The situation is so serious that it could happen even with current ice melting rates.
And once "instability" has begun, nothing could stop the ice melting – at risk of drowning some low-lying coastal areas.
This is according to a study supported by NASA that simulated the future ice flow for the Thwaites Glacier, published in the PNAS journal.
He has found that we are on the right track to trigger irreversible instability in the ice floes of the glacier.
And even if global warming were to stop later, instability would still push sea ice at an "extremely accelerated rate" over the next few centuries.
"If you trigger this instability, you do not need to keep forcing the ice layer by raising the temperature," said Alex Robel, an assistant professor at Georgia Tech, who led the study.
"This will continue on its own, and it's worry."
But he added: "Climatic variations will always be important after this tipping point, as they will determine the speed at which the ice will move."
The Arctic sea ice floats in the water, so even when it melts, the sea level will not change.
But Antarctica carries huge amounts of ice on the mainland – often in the form of glaciers – that can introduce fresh water into the sea.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains about eight times more ice than the Greenland Ice Cap. And it contains 50 times more ice than any mountain glacier in the world.
If the Thwaites Glacier got really unstable, it would be devastating.
"After reaching the tipping point, Thwaites Glacier could lose all its ice in a 150-year period," warned Nasa JPL scientist Helene Seroussi.
"That would make a sea level rise of about half a meter."
The current sea level rise is about 20 cm above the levels prior to global warming and has been attributed to the increase in coastal floods.
And scientists say that the annual sea level rise has nearly doubled since 1990 – and could worsen if the Thwaites Glacier froze.
The line connecting the point of contact between the ice cap and the seabed is called the "bottom line".
"Once the ice has passed over the ground line and just above the water, it contributes to the sea level because the buoyancy holds it more than it was," said Robel.
"The ice pours on the floating ice floe and melts or breaks into an iceberg.
Seroussi added: "The process is self-perpetuating."
Earlier this year, NASA revived the fire by discovering a huge void hidden beneath the Thwaites Glacier.
Its officials warned that the growing hole was already at the height of the Shard skyscraper in London and covered an area of 10,000 football fields.
As it grows, Thwaites will disintegrate faster and faster, potentially creating a global catastrophe.
"[The size of] a cavity under a glacier plays an important role in melting, "said NASA scientist Pietro Milillo.
"As the heat and the water penetrate under the glacier, they melt faster."
Sea level rise – what is the problem?
Here's what you need to know …
- The sea level has gradually increased over the last century
- Sea level rises for two main reasons
- The first is thermal expansion – as the water heats up, it expands
- The second is melting ice on dry land, adding fresh water
- This has a cyclical effect, as melting ice also warms the planet (and the oceans), causing a more even melting of ice and reinforcing thermal expansion
- It is currently increasing at a rate of about 0.3 cm per year
- The sea is huge, it might seem harmless
- The rise in sea level can have a devastating effect over time
- Lower coastal areas can disappear completely, even putting the regions of the United Kingdom at risk
- It can also mean that maritime storms and tsunamis can have a more devastating effect, reaching further down to earth than they would have before.
- There is also an increased risk of flooding
The gigantic Thwaites Glacier covers 113,000 square miles – about half the size of the United Kingdom.
If it melts, the sea level will rise by more than one meter, which will cause coastal flooding that will result in hundreds of thousands of people around the world.
But it is the protective effect of Thwaites on nearby glaciers that Nasa is most concerned about.
They say that the piece of ice acts as a "safety net" that prevents other people from melting to melt.
Without it, the surrounding glaciers could all disintegrate, raising the sea level by 2.5 meters (8 feet) if all the ice was lost.
This would put large tracts of underwater coastal cities, turning streets into canals and completely submerging some cities.
Previous research had predicted that a 6 foot sea level rise would leave large parts of Kent under water, while Portsmouth, Cambridge and Peterborough would not be much better.
Satellite imagery of the Cold War has recently revealed the horrific magnitude of glacier loss in the Himalayas.
In addition, Antarctica "thins" at an "extraordinary rate", experts have revealed that 100 meters thick icecap had disappeared since the 90s.
And one study found that the world's largest ice cap melts 10 times faster than expected.
Do you fear an apocalypse of climate change? Let us know in the comments!
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