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Alright, you know what’s the big news around the Washington Wizards: Deni Avdija is coming to the nation’s capital.
Last night and earlier this morning, Bullets Forever staff (and an old friend) shared our thoughts on the news of his arrival. Here it is below.
Albert Lee: The Wizards drafted Avdija at No.9. Is he a safe choice given the Wizards’ poor track record in developing non-Americans (Oleksiy Pecherov, Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, etc.) during operations time previous basketball? Or will he be a big contributor for the Wizards over the next few years? After all, this is the second year in a row the Wizards have drafted a non-American in the first round.
Yanir Rubinstein: I interviewed Deni, her family, coaches etc. and followed him closely this year, while preparing the special project on him for CloseUp360.
John Heiser: There is a lot to like about Avdija. I started to turn to him when I learned that his father was Serbian and that he played professional basketball in Yugoslavia (Serbia’s predecessor before the 1990s) and Israel. He met Deni’s mother (track and field athlete) in Israel while he was playing there. I am a fanatic of a basketball love affair.
It is an inverted Rui in many ways. Rui has the power play and intermediate jumpers, but lacks the instinct to play. Deni has a vision, a game but with finesse and an improved three ball.
He’s not Luka Doncic, never has been. He’s not Danilo Gallinari either. Deni is more of a small striker than Dario Saric ever was … but he could be Hedo Turkoglu 2.0. For those who quickly forget, Hedo finished with 19 points and 6 tables with 5 assists and 1 steal per game. Would Wizards fans be happy with that even if he’s never been on an All-Star team?
They called him a “mix player”. Instead of expecting him to mix, wizards should help him define his role. It has been a challenge for the young draft picks under Scott Brooks.
Tomas Satoransky and Troy Brown wondered aloud to the media what exactly Brooks expects from them. It’s not always clear that Brooks sees his guys the same way Tommy does. Rui Hachimura is considered a small striker, but he mostly plays the powerful striker and spends time as a small ball center.
Unfortunately, neither of the two picks, including Cassius Winston, move the meter defensively. I get it. NBA front offices that expect rookies to step in in defense don’t last long. There is still a defensive culture to build and they have not dedicated enough resources to this goal.
These improvements will have to go through a free agency … which starts like, now ?!
Marcus Atkinson Sr .: I have a mixed opinion on the choice. I like Deni’s play but I question the fit. What exactly is his position in the league? If we mean, well, this is positionless basketball, then I wonder in a lineup of John Wall, Bradley Beal, Avjida and Hachimura, who’s the better defender and who’s going to take on these tough wing assignments?
It would be nice if Deni can defend at a high level but he will need to improve his lateral quickness (if possible) and strength. If you put it at 4 and remove Rui from the picture, it’s not such a bad combination, but that’s what scares me. It wasn’t a choice for fit, it was BPA, so now how do you make it work?
The other thing is, what does that do to Troy Brown? Deni has similar skills, but a little bigger. Does that mean TBJ is no longer consumable now? I have a lot of questions, but I love his talent. The potential is there, but how will they help him realize it?
Gray Diaz: I think Avdija is a solid choice for the Wizards. The 19-year-old is not the usual rookie. As a professional player abroad since 2017, he had the chance to develop his game and succeed very early on. Avdija played for Maccabi Tel Aviv, one of the best basketball programs outside of the United States, in his early professional years and was the youngest player in club history. Avdija is a three-time Israeli League champion, Israeli League MVP and two-time FIBA U20 European Champion, among other accolades.
Avdija’s guard and attack skills make him versatile and will add value at both ends of the pitch. His speed will fit in with Wall and Beal in attack. With the right chemistry and the right composition, I see it fitting in perfectly and having an immediate impact.
Akbar Naqvi: As far as value goes Deni is doing well, in fact some would say he’s been a good deal as some teams have had him fourth or fifth on their boards. On paper, he’s a perfect fit for the modern NBA. The league is moving towards smart playmakers in all positions who can do a little bit of everything and play both sides, and Deni fits that mold. In a vacuum, this is a perfectly defensible choice.
However, it is clear that it is far from a finished product and you could argue that there is no clear way to help the team in any meaningful way in the short term. He’s a good defender, but he doesn’t change the game like Okongwu or Okoro. He’s not a great shooter and his under 60 FT% is legitimately a red flag, so it will be difficult to have him on the court without three or four other shooters.
I think some of the dissatisfaction around the choice of Wizards fans is more a reflection of the lack of clear leadership from the team. On the one hand, the team say they want to make the playoffs and expect to build around Bradley Beal, and have even been rumored to trade Wall for Russell Westbrook, an example of a win-now-clear move. However, when it comes to the deals that actually materialized, the Wizards operate like a rebuilding team by stacking up on young assets, drafting and signing development projects, and not really taking action that would result in immediate improvement.
How this season unfolds will answer many of these questions. If the team ends up better than expected, Beal has another All-Star season, Wall is back to at least 70% of what he was, the young players are improving and Deni contributes right away, the Wizards could make the playoffs playoffs and convince themselves that they are a young and competitive team with advantages and potential for internal improvement.
But if the season turns south and they’re a lottery team again (which I think is more likely), they’ll likely trade Beal and try to develop their young talents and add more to a team in reconstruction.
Kevin Broom: I had Avdija placed eighth in YODA with a score that would have had him 13-15 in a more normal draft year. In my analysis, Haliburton would have been a better selection. That said, Avdija is a good prospect who has the potential to become a good NBA player if he does everything to develop himself. He’s got a great feel for the game and excellent ball skills, which won’t mean much if he can’t threaten the three-point defenses. The atrocity of free throws is worrying in this area. Its 58.8% this season improved his career free throw percentage.
I’m not a big fan of what the organization has said about him. I understand they are excited to have it and think it is going to be good. They said the same things when they chose Jan Vesely. This is not to compare Avdija to Vesely (they are very different players) or to say that Avdija will go bankrupt. I’m just saying it would be wise to temper expectations and let it develop. He has potential. How to maximize it is up to the Wizards.
Ben Becker: Well said, Akbar. The things Avdija does well seem to make him unlikely to be an outright bust – although that potential exists if he can’t improve his shot. While I like the idea of attacking him on reconciliations, he has to shoot it well enough that the teams … come close to him.
However, I have this funny feeling in my stomach. Let’s see. Very energetic European player whose athleticism for his size has served him well as a young pro abroad. He is the son of athletes. Strong overall perspective with no readily identifiable NBA elite skills. He’s also a suspicious shooter, especially from the line.
Does anyone else still have Jan Vesely’s PTSD?
I’m not saying Deni will ignite like Vesely did by all means, but Kevin Condemn Broom reminded me that Tommy Sheppard played a big role in selecting two colossal European lottery busts to Jan and Nikoloz Tsitishvili.
At least in Deni’s case, he wasn’t a litter; nine was a reasonable place to choose it. Having said that, passing Haliburton was a disappointment. He seems like a perfect fit as someone who could play with John or Brad (or both), and I’m admittedly influenced by how he rated higher in YODA.
So yes, I am frustrated. It’s nothing particularly against Deni, but it goes back to Tommy’s refusal to choose a path.
We will have the second part of our roundtable tomorrow morning!
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