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The NBA Draft Lottery will be held at 8:30 p.m. ET Thursday from remote locations across the United States – on the mark for 2020 !. And when the ping pong balls stop, the future of a franchise can be changed forever.
Warriors, horsemen and forest wolves all have the best odds to experience the best possible result, with a shared chance of 14.0% of winning the lottery, and therefore the first overall choice. But as we saw last year with the New Orleans Pelicans – who only had a 7.5% chance and won the lottery – anything can happen on lottery night.
As we prepare for Thursday, here are six scenarios to follow while the official lottery order is settled.
1. Which player will be the big winner?
A year ago, it was obvious to everyone that the Pelicans, immediately after winning the lottery, would pick Zion Williamson with their pick. And they did.
But this year, we still don’t know who better perspective in this class is, and the Boy Scouts I’ve spoken to think it’s a three-way race between James Wiseman, LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards, with the fit and need serving as a tiebreaker. (Wiseman is a center, LaMelo is a head guard, Edwards is a shooting guard / wing.) It won’t be immediately clear which player is going to be the big winner, but we should get a lot more clarity with the order etched into it. stone. .
2. Can Pelicans Make History?
The Pelicans clinched gold last season moving from outside the top five to first place, using pick to select Zion Williamson. But to repeat this season would be virtually unheard of (and, in fact, record). New Orleans has the 13th best odds to secure the No.1 pick, with just 1.2% odds. No team has ever had a smaller chance of winning the lottery and went on to win the lottery (although the Magic in 1993 came close, winning the lottery with odds of 1.52%.) Also ironic whatever it is, the Magic are the only team to have won the lottery in consecutive seasons like the Pelicans might do on Thursday.
3. Knicks’ attempt to end lottery bad luck takes center stage
The Knicks haven’t progressed in the NBA Draft lottery since 1985 – the year they won the first pick and selected Patrick Ewing. But with team president Leon Rose, the team’s official representative for the lottery, maybe a new face will bring new fortunes.
New York has a 9% chance of winning the lottery and a 28% chance of getting one of the top three picks in the draft. If ever there was a year to go up, that could be a good one: The Knicks need a point guard, and LaMelo Ball and Killian Hayes look like two viable franchise-caliber lead guards worth considering. The team’s 9% odds follow only Golden State, Cleveland, Minnesota, Atlanta and Detroit.
4. Cleveland is the king of the lottery
The Cavs have won the NBA Draft lottery more than any other team in the league over the past two decades, resulting in huge successes (LeBron James, Kyrie Irving) and equally huge puffs (Anthony Bennett). Now they’re in the mix again. They have a 40.1% chance of staying in the top three in the draft, an astronomically high 79.9% chance of staying in the top five, and a 14% chance of winning with the No.1 pick.
The Cavs have been spending a lot of draft capital in recent years on their backcourt, with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, the team’s main guards, being drafted into the lottery in recent years. As such, winning the lottery in Cleveland may be a particularly positive development for James Wiseman, who is viewed by scouts as the best prospect of great men in that class, simply because it seems more likely than not that the Cavs try to balance their roster to account for recent investments at the Guardhouse (potentially reducing the likelihood of LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards landing there).
5. The Golden State Dynasty Dash Advances
Golden State will be in the top five. Due to the restructured lottery system, this is a guarantee; it’s just a matter of height – Warriors can’t go lower than # 5. If they get # 1 pick, be prepared for the outrage that the system is rigged accordingly.
Golden State counts for three of the last five NBA champions. But rigged, the lottery is not. If it secures the No.1 pick, however, we could see the revival of one of the NBA’s greatest dynasties.
6. Inevitable Conspiracy Theories, Get Started
The NBA Draft Lottery is not rigged. But man do people love themselves some conspiracy theories.
How about the 1985 conspiracy theory that the corner of the envelope was slightly bent, causing David Stern to pick it and, therefore, paving the way for the Knicks to win the Patrick Ewing draw?
Or the theory that LeBron James’ home team Cleveland winning the lottery was almost too good a storybook ending to be true?
Or that Anthony Davis was the Promised Prince of New Orleans as the franchise recovered from Hurricane Katrina?
There is always drama to stir up wild controversy, imagined or not. This is why the lottery remains one of the most fascinating sporting events of our time, and why, as frustrating as it may be for many, we won’t do anything on Thursday, but break down the full 30 minutes like the Zapruder movie for everything. which even seems slightly offbeat.
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