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A new national poll suggests that the 2020 presidential run-up to the presidential election is likely to tighten, with a nearly three-way tie between former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and two other rivals Progressives, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Despite the heat wave – MM. Sanders and Warren, with 20 percent support among Democratic voters and 19 percent with Biden – the Monmouth University poll released on Monday could allude to a worrying trend in Biden's candidacy, the previous one survey leader whose support was reduced by 32% when the Monmouth survey was held in June.
Sanders of Vermont and Warren of Massachusetts have both received several percentage points of support since June. Voters were asked who they would support among 23 Democratic candidates.
Patrick Murray, who heads the polling institute in Monmouth, in the western branch of Long, NJ, said the poll had hinted that the Democratic presidential nomination race was heating up. .
"The main conclusion of this poll is that the race for democracy has become volatile," Murray said. "Liberal voters are starting to look for a candidate to whom they can identify. Moderate voters, who pay less attention, seem to express doubts about Biden. "
Mr. Murray warned that the results were only a "snapshot of a poll." The 800 survey included 298 people considered Democratic Inscribed or Democratic Trend, and had a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 5.7% within this group. It took place by telephone from August 16th to 20th.
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Ms. Warren's favorable ratings also improved, while those of Mr. Biden decreased and those of Mr. Sanders remained stable.
While a single survey, the results seemed to corroborate the findings of a survey released last week by The Economist and YouGov, which also hinted at a tight race, showing Biden with 22% support, Sanders with 19% and Mrs. Warren with 18 percent. In the survey, 72 percent of Democrats rated Ms. Warren "favorably", two points higher than Biden's favorable score of 70. Sanders' favored rating was 65 percent.
In interviews in Iowa, some of Biden's supporters said they lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy, which suggests that the high number of his surveys may mask a weakness of his support.
The Monmouth poll found that Biden's support eroded in states that held previous primaries, rising from 26% to 20% since June. He had also fallen among a wide range of Democrats – including those who call themselves moderate, conservative and liberal, those with a university degree and those who do not, white voters and color voters.
In a statement, the Biden campaign suggested that the poll was a special case, noting that it was based on a relatively small sample and that an average of national polls calculated by RealClear Politics gave the benefit. to the former vice president, with 27.2% Sanders 16.7% and Mrs. Warren 16.2%.
Support for most other candidates for the Democratic nomination has been maintained in the Monmouth poll, albeit with figures well below those of the three leaders.
Senator Kamala Harris of California remained steady with 8% support. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey rose slightly from 2% in June to 4% in August. Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, in Indiana, got 4%, up from 5% in June.
The poll gave bad news to fellow California hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer. Mr Steyer entered the race in July and said he would spend 100 million dollars of his own money for his campaign.
Since Steyer garnered less than 1% support in the poll, he has not yet qualified for the third televised Democratic Debate in September, with the deadline to qualify being imminent for Wednesday.
Until now, only 10 candidates have qualified, which means that the debate must take place on one night.
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