[ad_1]
How concerned should California be about the potentially more contagious new variant of the coronavirus discovered here?
The variant sparked deep concern in Europe after it was discovered in England just before Christmas. The first reported U.S. case of COVID-19 caused by the variant has been detected in Colorado. While the development is concerning, some say it is not necessarily alarming.
This is what we know:
The variant is not a surprise
Experts, including Dr Anthony Fauci, say the variant comes as no surprise, but they also say the new strain could change the behavior of the virus.
“I don’t think Californians should feel this is anything strange,” Fauci said. “It is something that is expected.”
Mutations in the coronavirus are not unforeseen, he said, considering that “the more you replicate, the more you mutate. So when you have a lot of viruses circulating in the community, it means it infects a lot of people; it replicates a lot. “
“The overwhelming majority of mutations are irrelevant,” he continued, but “every once in a while you get a mutation that impacts some function of the virus.”
“It appears,” he added, “from what we’ve learned from the UK and what we’re going to prove here, that this particular mutation actually allows the virus to be transmitted better from a person. to another.”
Some scientists, however, are more skeptical that genetic changes in the strain, known as B.1.1.7, make it more contagious. There are other possible explanations for the rapid spread of the variant in England, such as its transmission through dense communities and among people who are less likely to wear masks and to move away socially.
Either way, “there is no indication that it increases virulence … the ability to make you sick or kill you,” Fauci said of the variant, adding that it appears that existing vaccines are sticking around as well. effective.
When England grappled with this, some experts told The Times they didn’t think it would be a problem in terms of vaccinations. Dr. Arturo Casadevall, a Johns Hopkins University microbiologist, said if the genetic changes were to have an effect on COVID-19 vaccines, it would be minimal.
“I’m not alarmist about this,” Casadevall said.
Even changes that drastically alter the spike protein of the virus don’t affect many other targets, called epitopes, that antibodies use to recognize and kill the virus, he said.
“So for the virus to completely overcome [a] vaccine, it should change in many, many places where the virus binds to cells, ”he said. “And this is a very low probability event.”
Californian patient had not traveled overseas
He’s a San Diego man in his thirties.
Dr Eric McDonald, medical director of the San Diego County Department of Epidemiology, said the man did not report any overseas travel before he fell ill, nor any of the two patients from Colorado. Travel history was not yet available for the second person.
In the absence of evidence of travel, it would appear that people with confirmed infections have contracted the virus in their communities, strongly suggesting that the British strain is more widespread than initially believed.
“There are other cases in San Diego that we need to be aware of,” McDonald said.
The San Diego subject appears to have accommodated the current stay-at-home order.
“Two weeks ago the number of activities was also very limited,” said McDonald. “There was no work activity and there was no specific gathering … which we talked about as the potential for a community epidemic.
Because he had no travel history, “we think this is not an isolated case in San Diego County,” supervisor Nathan Fletcher said during a press conference Wednesday.
“Although it has been pointed out that there is no evidence yet that the strain exhibits more severe symptoms,” said Fletcher, “there is significant evidence that it is spreading much faster, than it is much more contagious. “
This is one more reason, he added, why county officials “continue to encourage the public and plead for it to please … especially over the next 72 hours and the next. New Year’s holiday, please follow the order of public health ”.
More potent strain suspected
Officials suspected that the huge spread in this region could suggest a more potent strain.
But this has not yet been detected.
Officials have yet to find any evidence of the variant in Los Angeles County, where the coronavirus is already hitting particularly hard, according to public health director Barbara Ferrer.
“That doesn’t mean the variant isn’t circulating in LA County,” she warned in a briefing Wednesday. “We have thousands and thousands of people getting tested every day, and we can only take a small number of these test results and do the gene sequencing.
The presence or absence of the variant, she added, “does not change the need for all of us to use the strategies we currently have to limit the exposure and spread of the virus.”
Winkley and Sisson write for the San Diego Union Tribune. Times editor Melissa Healy contributed to this report.
[ad_2]
Source link