New strain of mutant coronavirus is nearly 50% more contagious

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The new mutant variant of the ‘super’ coronavirus is indeed more infectious than previous variants, just as scientists feared, according to a new study.

Researchers at Imperial College London have found that the new variant which is wreaking havoc in the UK may be nearly 50% more transmissible, based on samples taken from nearly 86,000 Britons.

In the study published online yesterday, which has not yet been peer reviewed, researchers at Imperial College determined that the “ R ” number of the new B117 variant was between 0.4 and 0.7 point higher than that of the other variants.

The “R” number of a virus describes the average number of additional cases to which each infection results.

In the UK, the latest R number is between 1.1 and 1.3, according to government figures. This means that on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 13 other people.

Charts in the new study show how, over eight weeks, the new variant became increasingly common (higher points on each chart) in the UK and became more heritable (points further to the right on each chart show increasing R numbers, or transmission rates

Charts in the new study show how, over eight weeks, the new variant became increasingly common (higher points on each chart) in the UK and became more heritable (points further to the right on each chart show increasing R numbers, or transmission rates

Pictured: A screenshot of the Imperial College report showing trends in cases involving the new strain of coronavirus, where the% S rate indicates carriage of the new variant

Pictured: A screenshot of the Imperial College report showing trends in cases involving the new strain of coronavirus, where the% S rate indicates carriage of the new variant

Pictured: Graphics from Imperial College report showing the age distribution of people with the new variant of Covid-19

Pictured: Graphics from Imperial College report showing the age distribution of people with the new variant of Covid-19

Meanwhile, on average in the United States, each infected person currently causes an additional 1.15 infections, according to RT.live daily calculations.

Based on this measure of transmissibility, the R number in the United States ranges from around 0.86 in Alaska to 1.23 in Maine, which has become a hot spot this week.

The new variant was first detected in the UK in September, according to the study, but in early December it exploded and caused an increase in infections among Britons.

The spread of the new variant of SARS-CoV-2, or Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC), in England comes despite the establishment of a multi-tiered system as part of efforts to control the spread of virus.

The majority of England are below ‘level 4’, the strictest level, but still experience a record number of daily Covid-19 infections despite the measures.

Researchers at Imperial College London sequenced the genomes of 1,904 people infected with the new variant and compared how quickly the virus spread to a larger sample of other specimens taken from more than 48,000 people in England .

What is the ‘mutant COVID strain’ and why are experts concerned?

Coronaviruses mutate regularly, acquiring about one new mutation in their genome every two weeks.

Most mutations do not significantly change the way the virus works.

This super strain, named B.1.1.7, was first identified in the UK in November.

It has since been found in France, Spain, Italy, Iceland, Japan, Singapore, Australia and now in the United States.

The new COVID-19 variant has a mutation in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein at position 501, where the amino acid asparagine (N) has been replaced by tyrosine (Y).

It is more contagious than the previous strains and potentially more harmful to children.

However, it is no longer believed to be fatal.

Researchers at Public Health England compared 1,769 people infected with the new variant, with 1,769 who had one of the earlier strains of the virus.

Forty-two people from the group were admitted to the hospital, 16 of whom had the new variant and 26 had the wild type.

Twelve of the variant cases and 10 of the “older” virus cases died within four weeks of testing.

Neither hospitalization nor differences in mortality were statistically significant.

As expected, they found that the new virus did indeed have a “ selective advantage over the SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in England, ” they wrote in the journal published online Thursday.

The variant was also disproportionate among people in their twenties, and those living in the South East and East of England and London.

The results of the new study mean that each person who catches this mutated virus will pass it on to 0.7 more people on average.

So far, there is no evidence to suggest that the new variant causes more serious disease or is more fatal.

Encouragingly, virologists and public health experts believe that vaccines made by companies like AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna will still be effective against the new variant of the coronavirus.

But the new variant heats up the race between the spread of the virus and vaccination campaigns in the UK, the US – where the new variant has now been found in Colorado, California and Florida – and at least 31 other countries where the most infectious form of the coronavirus was detected.

With over 186,000 people newly infected in a single day on average in the United States, the 48% higher transmissibility rate of 1.85 could lead to new infections per day in excess of 275,000.

It could be a disaster for hospitals in hot spots like California, where some health care systems and regions already run out of intensive care beds, in states of “internal disaster” and rationing. care.

There are similar fears in the UK about the National Health Service (NHS) and its ability to cope with the number of coronavirus patients who are expected as the new variant of the disease continues to spread.

Sharing data from a separate study by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Deepti Gurdasani – Senior Lecturer at Queen Mary University of London in Epidemiology and Statistical Genetics – warned that “B117 is either dominant or very close to dominant in most areas” in England.

Over the course of six weeks, the researchers saw how the transmission rate (R) of the novel coronavirus variant became higher (orange) than that of the other variants, especially in the south-east of England, the 'East of England and London

Over the course of six weeks, the researchers saw how the transmission rate (R) of the novel coronavirus variant became higher (orange) than that of the other variants, especially in the south-east of England, the ‘East of England and London

Meanwhile, only 3.17 million Americans had been vaccinated by Friday, according to a Bloomberg News tally.

The CDC tally puts the number even lower. The agency’s website says its vaccination tracker will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, but at the time of publication, the tool was showing the figures for Wednesday, with 2.79 million people vaccinated.

Bloomberg’s higher estimate means Operation Warp Speed ​​only vaccinated 16% of the 20 million Americans it promised to inoculate by the end of the year.

At this rate, it would take nearly a decade to vaccinate all adult members of the US population of 331 million people.

And many Americans still do not want to be vaccinated, even if one exists. About 60 percent of Ohio nursing home workers said they would refuse an injection.

Slow and dysfunctional vaccine delivery and Americans’ mistrust of vaccines could together give the B117 variant just the opening it needs to spread like wildfire across the country, infecting millions of people. people beyond the 20 million people already infected in the United States and killing thousands.



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