New studies highlight the challenge of achieving the climate goals of the Paris Agreement

New research highlights the "incredible challenge" of reaching the Paris Agreement without intense action and details the extreme temperatures that some regions of the planet will suffer if countries fail to reduce their emissions.

The world reached an agreement in December 2015 on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid an increase of 2 degrees Celsius in average global temperature above pre-industrial levels. Ideally, the goal of the treaty is to limit this increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The United States notified the United Nations in August 2018 of its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, joining Syria as one of only two countries in the world not party to the treaty.

Two new studies published in AGU journals Geophysical Research Letters and The future of the Earth now show that some of the goals set out in the agreement could be hard to reach without much sacrifice.

The new study shows that future climate extremes depend on the political decisions of major emitters and that, even if large emitters are to strengthen their emission reduction commitments, the rest of the world should immediately reduce their greenhouse gases to zero. to achieve the objectives set. Paris 2015 target.

"In simple terms, these articles highlight the incredible challenge that the 2015 Paris agreement with the world represents," said Dáithí Stone, a climatologist at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, a company Crown-owned research projects in New Zealand. involved in one or other of the studies.

Importance of major emitters

The first study, published in AGU & # 39; s Geophysical Research Letters, found that none of the world 's leading carbon emitters, including the United States, China and the European Union, had made any calculated commitments for s & # 39; align with the climate warning limitation to an increase of 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.

If these large emitters fail to implement stricter political changes limiting their emissions, some parts of the world, such as eastern North America and central Europe, will experience periods of extreme temperatures, according to the new study.

"What's happening now and at the issuer level," said Sophie Lewis, senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales and lead author of the new study.

She and her co-authors have used models projecting future climatic conditions in some parts of the world to show that the failure of these highly polluting countries would lead directly to problems.

According to new research, in many parts of the world, future extreme temperature events depend on current and future reductions in carbon dioxide emissions by major emitters. For example, if the United States fails to limit the country's emissions, it will directly lead to extreme temperatures in areas such as Central Europe and eastern North America.

Lewis said that all future impacts are unclear, but the data is good enough for Central and Eastern North America to show how an average increase in temperature world would have a direct impact on these regions.

"In Central Europe, it was clear that there was a lot to be gained by limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 or 2 degrees," she said.

Although Lewis said it would be up to all countries in the future to limit the impact of climate change, the world's high-emission regions play an important role in reducing emissions. . By implementing stronger climate commitments, major emitters can reduce the frequency of extreme extremes and their own calculated contributions to these temperature extremes, noted the study's authors.

Studies like this one are important because they can be used in the future to hold large emitters responsible for any failure in limiting the effects of climate change, according to the study's authors.

"By broadening the standard methods of assessing the increased risk of extreme events due to climate change, they quantify the contribution of large carbon dioxide-emitting countries to future increases in risk," he said. Michael Wehner, senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, led by the University of California, who has not participated in any recent studies.

"As the authors point out, this is a method of assigning responsibility for losses and damage caused by extreme weather events," said Wehner.

A difficult future for developing countries

In a second study, published in The future of the Earth, the researchers found that the "all-in-one-all" approach to global climate mitigation outlined in the Paris Agreement masked the enormous challenge facing developing countries .

Even if the United States, China, the European Union and India increased their contributions to limit emissions, the rest of the world would have to move to zero emissions by 2030 for the planet to reach its goal to limit the temperature rise -The industrial times to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the new study.

The authors of the recent study stated that it would not be technically, politically or socially feasible for many countries in the world to achieve this goal.

"It's very easy to talk about the global average, but as soon as you peel an onion layer, at the country level, these rules no longer apply," said Glen Peters, director of research at the Center for International Climate. Research (CICERO) in Norway and co-author of the second study.

He added that high emission countries had already done a lot of damage to emissions, while the rest of the world should now limit their industrial growth and development to meet their emissions targets.

"The pie is so small that you will virtually starve developing countries unless there is a significant increase (in emissions reduction) from countries like the United States," he said. declared.

According to Wehner, "the two new studies reveal a" global warming inequality between developed and developing countries ".

"In the absence of new energy technologies, the modernization of developing countries and the alleviation of poverty would have significant negative impacts on the reduction of emissions, as indicated by [Peters’ paper]," he said.

A way forward

Peters, co-author of the document The future of the Earth, said his conclusions are bleak, but that the world should not give up on reaching its emissions targets. He added that countries with high historical emissions, such as the United States and some parts of Europe, should commit to further reducing their emissions than the developing world to offset past emissions.

Peters and his co-authors argue that to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the most advanced countries need to develop low?, Zero? even negative "carbon emission" technologies that can be deployed on a large scale in developing countries.

Stone, with the National Institute for Research on Water and the Atmosphere, said that Peters' study shows that no country can slip into the US. goal of achieving climate goals.

"It's hard to dispute their conclusion that we need to start seriously considering options such as deploying solar geoengineering, with all the risks that entails, if the world really wants to achieve the goals of the Kyoto Accord. Paris, "he said.