New variant of Covid discovered in UK could become dominant strain in US by March, CDC says

A more contagious strain of the coronavirus first discovered in the UK late last year could become the dominant strain in the US by March as the country rushes to vaccinate people against the disease, according to a new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“The modeled trajectory of this variant in the United States shows rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March, “according to the CDC study published on Friday.

Researchers have warned that increased spread could increase pressure on hospitals nationwide and may require greater public health measures to curb transmission of the virus until enough people are vaccinated. Strengthened surveillance for mutating viruses combined with greater compliance with public health measures, such as wearing masks, washing hands and physical distancing, could help slow the spread of the virus, they said.

“These measures will be more effective if instituted as early as possible to slow the initial spread of variant B.1.1.7. Efforts to prepare the health system for further surges in cases are warranted,” the officials said. researchers.

The country has so far found only 76 cases of Covid-19 with the highly infectious variant, known as B.1.1.7, according to CDC data last updated on Wednesday. However, many of the cases that have been identified have been in people with no travel history, suggesting that the variant is spreading in the community undetected.

Global health experts have argued that while the new variant found in the UK and a similar strain found in South Africa are more contagious, they don’t appear to make people sicker or increase the chances of dying.

However, more cases could ultimately lead to additional hospitalizations at a time when the country is already experiencing record levels of Covid-19 patients. Rapid transmission of the new variants could require vaccinating more people to achieve so-called herd immunity, the researchers said.

Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient portion of the population is immune to a disease, either through vaccination or natural infection, which prevents its spread and protects the rest of the community, according to the Mayo Clinic.

The United States has started its vaccination efforts slowly, missing its goal of vaccinating 20 million people by the end of last year. The United States has issued more than 31.1 million doses to date, but has only administered 12.3 million, according to CDC data.

There are also concerns that newer variants, especially the strain found in South Africa, may be more resistant to monoclonal antibody treatments, which have been shown to reduce a person’s chances of landing in hospital if given enough. early in his infection.

The CDC study

According to the agency’s research, although the current prevalence of the variant in the United States is still unknown, it is believed to be less than 0.5% of cases based on their analysis. The United States has yet to detect the variant found in South Africa or another strain identified in Japan among travelers from Brazil, they said.

In their model, the researchers estimated the variant to be 50% more transmissible than current strains. They also estimated that between 10% and 30% of people are already immune to pre-existing infections and 1 million doses of the vaccine will be given per day starting this month.

Even though the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 strain is considered low, given its high transmissibility, it will likely increase rapidly in early 2021, according to the model. Even with vaccines, the variant will continue to spread, although the drugs have shown the greatest effect in reducing transmission of the strain in places where the disease was already in decline.

“Early efforts that may limit the spread of variant B.1.1.7, such as universal and increased adherence to public health mitigation strategies, will allow more time for ongoing vaccination to achieve higher immunity. at the population level, ”the study said.