New Variants Threaten to Reverse Progress Against COVID-19

The rise of more contagious variants of the coronavirus threatens an encouraging trend of declining COVID-19 cases across the country.

New U.S. cases of COVID-19 fell below 100,000 for the first time since November on Sunday, a sign of hope after a brutal period after Thanksgiving that saw cases, hospitalizations and deaths soar.

Health officials urge the public and governors not to ease precautions despite a somewhat improved situation, given that measures such as wearing a mask and keeping others away are even more important when the virus is more contagious.

Moreover, while the trend is in a positive direction, the levels of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are still much higher than either of the previous peaks in the spring and summer of the last year.

There were 96,000 new cases on Sunday, according to the COVID Tracking Project, up from a peak of nearly 300,000 in early January. But it is still well above any level that experts would consider as a goal. It is even higher than the peak of cases during the summer, for example, which was around 75,000 cases per day.

About 3,000 people die from the virus every day, and about 80,000 are hospitalized with COVID-19.

Still, the positive trend has prompted some governors to start easing restrictions.

In Iowa, Governor Kim Reynolds (right) last week lifted the mask mandate and distancing restrictions on restaurants and bars.

While this may be the most sweeping recent move, other states have taken more gradual steps to relax. Gov. Andrew CuomoAndrew Cuomo Republican 2024 hopefuls draw early battle lines for post-Trump era Cuomo signs bill to repeal the right to “ walk while trans ” Republicans in New York City want Department of Justice summons Cuomo about retirement homes. (D) announced that indoor catering could return to 25% of capacity in New York City before Valentine’s Day.

Asked about decision by Iowa, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Rochelle WalenskyRochelle WalenskyCDC could set requirements to reopen schools this week, Biden says governor of Maine warns Super Bowl parties as Republicans seek to hit Democrats when schools reopen MORE Monday, urged states not to lift precautions, citing in part the rise of new variants of the virus.

“We still have this emerging threat of variants, and I would just discourage any of those activities,” she said. “We really need to keep all of the mitigation in play here if we are really going to get this pandemic under control.”

Highlighting the threat of a more contagious variant of the virus first identified in the UK, a study released on Sunday found that the variant is doubling every 10 days in the US and is likely to become the dominant strain in many states. ‘here March.

Because the variant is 35 to 45% more transmissible, experts warn that its increase could lead to a sharp increase in cases and hospitalizations.

“We certainly expect to see a spike in cases” on the current trajectory, said Karthik Gangavarapu, a researcher at the Scripps Research Institute and one of the study’s authors. “We still don’t know how much of a peak that will be.”

Stepping up genomic sequencing to track the prevalence of the different variants, as well as additional contact tracing efforts by local public health departments to slow the spread of the UK variant, could both help in the fight, Gangavarapu said. .

Ashish Jha, Dean of Brown University School of Public Health, warned, citing the example of Ireland, which has been hit hard by the new variant. It peaked at 132 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in early January. “The United States has never seen such numbers. Only the Dakota had such high infection rates, ”Jha wrote on Twitter.

Jha added that he was “optimistic for the end of spring and summer,” given that vaccines will be more widely available by then, but he said the next few weeks were more worrying.

Although there are not enough vaccines available to immunize everyone in the next few months, and there are logistical challenges in getting injections into millions of guns, the longer the vaccination campaign can go. sooner, the more any peak of the new variant will be blunt.

Encouragingly, the vaccines appear to work well against the UK variant.

But another variant, first identified in South Africa, is of more concern based on initial data. So far, the results suggest a decrease in vaccine efficacy with the South African variant. This variant has also been found in the United States, but it is less common so far.

Tom Frieden, a former CDC director, wrote that recent improving trends are likely due to a continued recovery from the post-holiday peak, when an increase in travel and indoor gatherings led to spikes.

“Now is not the time to let our guard down,” he wrote on Twitter. “We are making progress with vaccines, but variations are coming.”