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SARS-CoV-2 showed the world with devastating clarity the threat undetected viruses can pose to global public health. SpillOver, a new web application developed by scientists at the University of California at Davis and contributed to experts from around the world, ranks the risk of spread from wildlife to humans for newly discovered viruses.
SpillOver is the first open-source risk assessment tool that assesses viruses in wildlife to estimate their zoonotic spread and pandemic potential. It effectively creates a watchlist of newly discovered viruses to help policymakers and health scientists prioritize them for further characterization, surveillance and risk reduction interventions.
The tool is linked to a study published in the journal PNAS, in which the authors identified the viral, host and environmental risk factors most relevant for viral fallout. Next, the team ranked the risk of 887 wildlife viruses using data collected from a variety of sources, including viruses detected by USAID’s PREDICT project Emerging Pandemic Threats, which the One Institute UC Davis Health led from 2009 to 2020.
Primates and cattle explore the grounds outside a residence in Ghana. Credit: Terra Kelly, UC Davis
Coronavirus ranking high
Topping the list were 12 known human pathogens, which was expected and validates the utility of the tool. Interestingly, SpillOver has classified several recently discovered coronaviruses as having a higher risk of spillover than some viruses already known to be zoonotic. This watchlist includes a novel coronavirus tentatively named PREDICT_CoV-35, which is ranked in the top 20.
The power of the tool is that it is open-source – the more data entered, the more robust the ranking. SARS CoV-2 currently ranks second out of the 887 viruses analyzed, between Lassa and Ebola viruses.
This may seem counterintuitive, the authors note, given the current global devastation from the pandemic. They explain that the tool classifies the potential for another overflow beyond what has happened historically. In addition, key information remains to be discovered on SARS CoV-2 and its risk of spillover, such as the number and range of its host species. As scientists learn more about this virus, it is possible that SARS CoV-2 will rise to No. 1.
“SARS-CoV-2 is just one example of several thousand viruses that have the potential to spread from animals to humans,” said lead author Zoë Grange, who led the development of SpillOver as as a postdoctoral fellow with the UC Davis One Institute of Health. “We must not only identify, but also prioritize the viral threats with the greatest risk of contagion before another devastating pandemic occurs. Our viral risk ranking tool SpillOver is the starting point for creating proactive solutions. “
‘Credit Score’ virus
SpillOver was inspired by risk assessments used by banks and insurance companies. It creates a “credit-like” score for viruses by looking at key risk factors and using them to prioritize viruses with the greatest potential threats to human health for a watch list. Users can customize the watchlist based on their own circumstances, such as country of interest.
Older virus classification tools were limited in the number or types of viruses analyzed, with minimal risk factors taken into account. SpillOver takes into account 32 risk factors for the virus and the hosts, including the associated environment and human behaviors. It also includes 25 different viral families, from coronaviruses to the viral family responsible for ebolaviruses.
Classify your virus
SpillOver produces a detailed risk report for each virus, and its “ risk comparison ” tool allows users to compare and contrast ranked viruses, as well as filter viruses on a selection of key attributes, including including viral species, host species and country of detection.
As an open source tool, SpillOver provides a living platform for the continuous ranking of fallout risks. Scientists can provide data on existing viruses or assess the risk of new viruses using the “Rank Your Virus” application.
“This tool is intended to start a global conversation that will allow us to go far beyond how we thought we would classify viruses in the past and enable real-time scientific collaboration to identify new threats early,” said said corresponding author Jonna Mazet, professor at the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, founding director of One Health Institute and former global director of PREDICT. “SpillOver can help us better understand viral health threats and enable us to take action to reduce the risk of spillovers before pandemics catch fire.”
SpillOver engages and enables scientists who discover viruses to collaborate in a One Health framework that focuses not only on viral characteristics, but also on all the circumstances present in areas at high risk for disease emergence. This allows the tool to be a catalyst to quickly identify and classify newly discovered viruses and their animal-human transmission interfaces.
This paradigm shift can facilitate early collaboration, across disciplinary and national boundaries. Identifying and categorizing viruses for human health risks can help scientists identify critical control points and tackle human behaviors that expose humans and animals to new viral infection.
Reference: April 5, 2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
DOI: 10.1073 / pnas.2002324118
The co-authors of the study include hundreds of people who have supported the PREDICT project in their home countries and institutions, as well as global viral emerging scientific leaders and key collaborating institutions, including the Wildlife Conservation Society. , EcoHealth Alliance, Metabiota, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institut, Columbia universityCenter for Infection and Immunity.
Funding for the study was provided by USAID’s Emerging Threats Project.
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