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For the first time in nearly two decades, the Raiders will be favored by more than a touchdown in a road game. In the opening odds of Week 13, the Raiders opened as 7.5-point favorites against the Jets in a game to be played at MetLife Stadium.
While 7.5 points doesn’t sound like a huge number, it’s for the Raiders, who have only been favored by many on the road another time this century. The last time the Raiders were this big favorite on the road was in 2002, when they were 9.5 points favorite for a road game played in Arizona. The Raiders won this game 41-20, meaning they are 1-0 ATS this century when favored by 7.5 points or more on the road. The 2002 season is also the last time the Raiders make it to the Super Bowl.
The Raiders aren’t the only privileged team for the first time in years. The Dolphins opened as an 11.5-point favorite over the Bengals, marking the first time in 17 years that Miami has been favored by at least 11 points in any game, at home or away. The last time that happened was in Week 1 of 2003 and in a game where the Dolphins got really pissed off. In 2003, the Texans won 21-20 over a Miami team that were favored by 14.5 points.
It was a crazy week 12 Sunday and there is a lot to do. John Breech, Ryan Wilson, and host Will Brinson break it down on the Pick Six podcast; tune in below and be sure to subscribe to the daily goodness of the NFL pulled into your eardrums.
With that in mind, let’s see the rest of the opening point spreads for week 13.
NFL Week 13 Early Bird Odds
(All William Hill Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted, all Sunday matches unless otherwise noted)
Opening line: Saints -3
The Saints have dominated this rivalry for the past two years going 5-1 both straight and ATS in their last six games against the Falcons. The Saints have also covered four straight games this season, including the last two without Drew Brees. Speaking of Brees, the Saints are 7-0 both straight and ATS without him since the start of last season. As for the Falcons, they are 11-3 CEP in their last 14 games as a home underdog, which includes their Week 12 game where they clinched a victory over a favored Raiders team. by three.
Opening line: Bear -4
In the last five games between these two teams, the Bears have gone 5-0 straight and 4-1 ATS. Back in Week 1, the Lions led 23-6, but the Bears ended up coming back and covering as a 2.5-point loser in a 27-23 victory. One of the reasons to love the Lions is that the teams that fire their coaches have been a good bet this year. Matt Patricia was the third fired head coach this season along with Bill O’Brien and Dan Quinn. In the other two instances where a coach was fired, the Texans and Falcons both won and covered in the first game they played after the shot.
Opening line: Titans -4
While the Browns have turned things around this year, they’re still a team you want to avoid betting on when playing in a road game. In their last 11 games away from Cleveland, the Browns have gone 1-10 ATS (3-8 in a row) and that includes Sunday’s game in Jacksonville where they didn’t cover as than 6.5 point favorite. As for the Titans, they have been almost unbeatable in the last 10 games where they have been favored by three or more, scoring 8-2. However, they didn’t do such a good job in this situation, with just 5-5 ATS.
Bengals (2-8-1) at Dolphins (7-4)
Opening line: Dolphins -11.5
You probably don’t want to bet on a surprise in this game and that’s because the Bengals are winless in their Last 19 away matches of Cincinnati (0-18-1 straight). That being said, they did a good job of covering that stretch, going 11-8 ATS. As for the Dolphins, they are 6-1 CEP in their last seven games. The Dolphins are also 8-2 CEP in their last 10 home games since last season.
Opening line: Vikings -9.5
Going back to Week 3, the Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. Not only are they 0-9 straight, but they’re also 3-6 ATS in this period. They’re also an ugly 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games against NFC teams and an even uglier 3-17. As for the Vikings, they are 19-8 CEP against AFC teams since hiring Mike Zimmer in 2014 (18-11 in a row). On the other hand, the Vikings weren’t big favorites. In their last six games where they have been favored by nine or more, Minnesota has gone 1-4-1 ATS.
Raiders (6-5) at NY Jets (0-11)
Opening line: Raiders -7.5
One worrying thing about the Raiders at this location is that this game is played in the Eastern time zone, where they are 4-9 straight and 4-8-1 PEC since the start of the 2017 season. This total includes a game last season where the Raiders were defeated 34-3 by the Jets in New York in a game where the Raiders were favored by 3.5. As for the Jets, they are 0-12 straight and 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games where they’ve been underdog by one or more touchdowns. The Jets are also 3-8 ATS this season, which is the second-worst score in the NFL.
Washington (4-7) at the Steelers (10-0)
Opening line: Steelers -10.5
As of the start of the 2019 season, Washington is down to 2-5 both on the straights and ATS against AFC teams. That being said, if there is one place where Washington seems to thrive, it’s like a double-digit underdog. In their last 10 games where they were a 10-or-better underdog, Washington has gone 7-3 ATS (1-9 in a row). The reason this might be a good thing for Washington is that the Steelers can’t seem to cover anything when favored by 10 or more. In the last eight games the Steelers have been favored by double-digit numbers, they’ve only gone 1-7 ATS (7-1 straight).
Colts (7-4) at Texans (4-7)
Opening line: Colts -2.5
After starting the season 1-7 ATS, the Texans have suddenly covered in three straight games. Of course, this might not be the week you want to jump on the bandwagon and that’s because they rarely cover up against the Colts. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Texans are 3-10-1 CÉP against the Colts (5-9 in a row). The Colts are also 3-1 both straight and ATS in their last four road games.
Opening line: Rams -1.5
The Cardinals started the CÉP season 5-2, but since then they’ve become a player’s worst nightmare. In their last four games, the Cards have gone 0-4 ATS, including Sunday’s loss to New England. Things aren’t going to get any easier this week and that’s because the Cardinals will face a Rams team that has absolutely dominated them. Since Sean McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams have gone 6-0 straight and 5-0-1 against ATS against Arizona.
Opening line: Seahawks -9
The Giants have sort of become one of the safest bets in the NFL over the past few weeks, going 6-2 CÉP in their last eight games (4-4 in a row). Surprisingly, they’ve been even better on the road, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games (3-6 in a row). That being said, this game is played in Seattle where the Seahawks have been unbeatable this year. Heading into Week 13, the Seahawks are 5-0 straight in Seattle this year, making them the only NFC team still unbeaten at home (4-1 ATS). One thing to watch out for in this game is the health of Daniel Jones, who injured his hamstrings in Sunday’s victory.
Opening line: Packers -7.5
The Packers play at home in December, which is always bad news for their opponent and here’s why: Since the start of the 2009 season, Aaron Rodgers is 18-2 in December at home and 16-4 against L ‘difference. As for the Eagles, they’ve been a disaster on the road this year, going 1-4 both straight and ATS.
Opening line: Chargers -1
The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, which is the longest active non-coverage streak in the NFL right now. The Chargers are also 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games. If you look at more recent history, things haven’t improved much as they have 3-9 games in a row in their last 12 home games. Basically the Chargers don’t have much of an advantage on the court. The Patriots are an underdog in this game which is remarkable because they actually seem to be doing pretty well as an underdog. Since the start of the 2014 season, the Patriots have gone 9-3 ATS and 8-4 straight.
Opening line: Heads -13.5
Betting the Chiefs for cover when playing against an AFC West team has been one of the easiest ways to make money over the past five years. As of November 2015, the Chiefs have gone 30-3 straight against opponents in the division and 22-10-1 ATS. That total includes 10-0 and 9-1 ATS against the Broncos the last 10 times these two teams have played.
Opening line: TBA
This game was originally supposed to be played Thursday, but now it has been moved to Monday. It probably won’t matter to Lamar Jackson and that’s because he has NEVER lost a start to an NFC team. In eight career starts against NFC teams, Jackson has gone 8-0 straight, but only 3-5 ATS, including 0-2 ATS against the NFC East this year. As for the Cowboys, they are 1-6 in both straight and ATS in their last seven road games. They are also 2-9 CEP this season, which is the worst score in the NFL.
Bills (8-3) at 49ers (5-6), Monday
Opening line: Invoices -2.5
Playing on a Monday has been disastrous for the Bills for the past five years. Since 2015, they are 0-4 on the straight and 0-3-1 ATS on “Monday Night Football”. In the same period, they are 1-6 on the straight and 1-5-1 ATS in all prime-time games. One thing to love about the Bills is that they are 5-0 ATS and 4-1 straight in their last five games against NFC teams and the only loss came on a Hail Mary. As for the 49ers, they are 8-2 CEP in their last 10 regular season games against the AFC (7-3 in a row). They are also 12-3 CEPs in their last 15 games on Monday, but keep in mind that when you look at more recent numbers they are only 1 to 3 and 2-2 CEPs in their four. last matches.
BYES: Buccaneers, Panthers
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