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New Jersey’s top health official warned on Wednesday that the state was bracing for an ‘increase’ in hospitalizations due to the latest peak in coronavirus cases which could occur as early as next week and could trigger a new round of restrictions , especially with elective surgeries.
While hospitalizations remained between 3,500 and 3,900 for weeks, well below the peak of more than 8,000 in the spring, Department of Health commissioner Judy Persichilli said hospital officials are concerned about the weeks to come due to available staff.
“We are preparing for the predictive surge which could start as early as next week in mid-February,” Persichilli said Wednesday during the governor’s regular briefing on COVID-19.
“What we won’t have is the appropriate level of staffing that people know about, conventional staffing,” she said. “So we’ll be working with our hospitals if they need to move to what we call emergency staffing and hopefully never crisis staffing.”
Gov. Phil Murphy has warned that hospitalizations over 5,000 patients would likely trigger new restrictions – especially on elective surgeries, which include procedures such as tumor removal.
During the spring outbreak, New Jersey benefited from the presence of health workers from other parts of the country to help treat patients. Now that the virus is raging across the country, health officials don’t expect to be able to receive the same support – which could mean a shortage of workers to meet high patient demand.
According to state data, 3,638 people were being treated at the state’s 71 hospitals as of Wednesday night, 88 fewer patients than the day before.
New Jersey, however, reported a one-day record of 6,922 new confirmed positive tests and 95 additional deaths on Wednesday. The seven-day average for new confirmed cases rose to 5,679 on Wednesday, up 22% from a week ago and 18% from a month ago. This is the highest seven-day average for the outbreak to date, although the lack of testing in the spring likely underestimated the extent of infections in the first wave.
Increases in hospitalizations tend to follow one to two weeks after peaks in new cases, as symptoms worsen and people seek advanced medical care, officials said.
Hospitalizations on 01/13/21
CORONAVIRUS RESOURCES: Live map tracking | Bulletin | Home page
“(We) are watching that number and that number like a hawk,” Murphy said Wednesday.
Moderate models of the outbreak predict a peak of 4,000 to 4,500 hospitalizations, while high models show more than 6,000, Persichilli said.
The high-end model “would be difficult” to manage, Persichilli said.
“At this point we’re going to have to pull some levers that we’re not pulling right now,” added Murphy.
The state of 9 million people has now lost 20,161 residents to the COVID-19 outbreak – 18,070 confirmed deaths and 2,091 considered probable. Probable deaths were revised upwards Wednesday from 2059. New Jersey has already announced 969 confirmed deaths this month, after 1,890 in December.
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Matt Arco can be reached at [email protected].
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