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New Jersey health officials on Sunday reported 4,613 more confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 17 more deaths, as the state’s predictive models suggest we have peaked in the second wave of the pandemic.
Governor Phil Murphy announced the latest figures on social media.
They came on the same day that new predictive models from the State Department of Health showed that Sunday could be the peak of the state’s second wave of the state’s pandemic.
The scenarios show that there could be 5,467 new cases and 3,796 people hospitalized on Sunday according to a moderate forecast (there were 3,186 people hospitalized on Saturday). But up to 6,833 new positive tests and 4,745 hospitalizations could also occur on the same day in the worst case.
The moderate model shows a steeper drop in cases and hospitalizations over the next few months with a potential of around 500 new cases per day and around 375 people treated in hospitals by the end of June.
In the worst-case modeling scenario, however, the decline in cases and hospitalizations would be much slower. This model predicts that the state could still have 4,706 daily cases and 3,268 hospital patients by the end of June. Both forecasts predict an increase in cases and hospitalizations in the coming days.
Much could depend on how quickly New Jersey receives and dispenses vaccine doses.
Murphy said he wanted 70% of the state’s eligible population – nearly 5 million people – to be vaccinated by May.
Health officials, meanwhile, announced on Friday that the first two cases of the highly contagious variant of COVID-19 first identified in the UK have been discovered in the Garden State.
Scientists said the mutation was up to 70% more contagious. But there is no proof at the moment it is deadlier or more resistant to vaccines. New Jersey joins at least 20 states where the strain has been confirmed. The first identified case is from an Ocean County man in his 60s and the other is a child traveling to northern New Jersey.
Deaths of NJ residents by month and year 2015-2020
The pandemic has killed at least 20,951 people in the state since the first death from COVID-19 in March.
Deaths from the coronavirus in New Jersey have exceeded what is typically recorded for heart disease and cancer, the two main killers year after year. On December 31, the state’s official coronavirus toll reached 19,042 confirmed and probable deaths in a pandemic that devastated in the spring, then exploded again in the fall and winter in a second wave that continues to grow. shake.
That exceeded the usual annual cancer deaths, which killed nearly 16,200 people a year from 2014 to 2019, according to data from the Ministry of Health. It has also surpassed that of heart disease, which has killed more than 18,650 on average during those six years.
CORONAVIRUS RESOURCES: Live map tracking | Bulletin | Home page
VACCINATIONS
The number of vaccine doses administered exceeded 500,000, according to the follow-up immunization status dashboard, which showed 524,865 as of Sunday afternoon. Of that number, 459,635 was the first of two doses people will receive.
New Jersey has received 989,900 doses from the federal government, according to a current CDC count.
The state peaked at 31,859 single-day doses on Jan.20, based on the most recent data.
The six coronavirus vaccination mega-sites have opened across New Jersey to serve as vaccination centers.
New Jersey has been criticized for its slower deployment than dozens of other states as it continues to grapple with a second wave of the pandemic, according to data from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The state distributes the doses in stages. And even though authorities dramatically expanded vaccine eligibility last week, demand still exceeds supply and residents are scrambling for rare appointments. More than 4 million New Jersey residents are now eligible.
Officials point out that the state depends on the federal government for its supply and only receives 100,000 doses per week, although New Jersey has a capacity of 470,000 per day.
Murphy Saturday said the federal government did not deliver the additional doses promised.
HOSPITALIZATIONS
The 3,186 patients hospitalized with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 in New Jersey hospitals on Saturday night included 590 in critical or intensive care (18 fewer than the night before), including 376 on ventilators (53 fewer).
There were 74 fewer people hospitalized on Saturday compared to the night before.
According to the state’s COVID-19 dashboard, 397 COVID-19 patients were also discharged on Saturday.
The governor said any hospitalization of more than 5,000 patients would likely trigger new rounds of restrictions. But the number of people hospitalized has mostly declined slowly in recent days after peaking more than seven months with 3,873 people on December 22.
SCHOOL CASE
At least 597 students and staff from 121 New Jersey school districts have contracted COVID-19 during outbreaks at school, according to the latest update from state health officials.
This is an increase of 10 districts and 40 cases from the previous weekly report. There are now confirmed school-based outbreaks in all 21 counties, although the state does not identify individual school districts.
Bergen County has the most outbreaks (26) and cases (115). The county also has the most confirmed cases with 55,349 as of Wednesday.
These figures do not include students or staff suspected of having been infected outside of school or cases that cannot be confirmed as epidemics at school. Although the numbers continue to rise each week, Murphy said the school epidemic statistics remained below what state officials expected when schools reopened for in-person classes.
New Jersey defines school outbreaks as cases where contact tracers have determined that two or more students or school staff had caught or transmitted COVID-19 in class or during school activities at school.
BREAKDOWN BY AGE
Broken down by age, 30-49 year olds represent the highest percentage of New Jersey residents who have contracted the virus (31.2%), followed by 50-64 year olds (23.7%), 18-29 (19 , 3%), 65 -79 (11.1%), 5-17 (7.5%), 80 years and over (5.4%) and 0-4 (1.6%).
On average, the virus has been deadlier for older residents, especially those with pre-existing conditions. Almost half of the deaths from COVID-19 in the state were among residents aged 80 and over (47%), followed by those aged 65 to 79 (33%), aged 50 to 64 (15 , 6%), 30 to 49 years (4%), 18 to 29 years. (0.4%), 5-17 (0%) and 0-4 (0%).
At least 7,668 of the state’s COVID-19 deaths have occurred among residents and staff of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. That number has grown at a faster rate again in recent months, with deaths in nursing homes across the state nearly tripling in December.
There are currently active outbreaks in 431 facilities, resulting in 7,054 active cases among residents and 7,619 among staff.
WORLDWIDE FIGURES
As of Sunday morning, there were more than 98.86 million positive COVID-19 tests worldwide, according to an ongoing count from Johns Hopkins University. More than 2.12 million people have died from complications from the coronavirus.
The United States has reported the most cases, at more than 25 million, and the most deaths, at more than 417,500.
Editor of NJ Advance Media Riley yates contributed to this report.
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Matt Arco can be reached at [email protected].
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