[ad_1]
State officials know that at least 50 people have been infected with a variant of the coronavirus in New Jersey, a strain that appears to be more transmissible – and more deadly.
What they don’t know is how many other people across New Jersey could be spreading the most dangerous variant, which came from the UK. State officials will not say how many virus samples in total they tested, and a spokeswoman for the state’s health department said even the percentage of samples tested for the strain did not was not clear.
The number of variant cases is almost surely underreported, public health experts say, and without knowing how many or how often samples are tested, they fear this presents a big setback in the fight against COVID- 19.
“It’s really, at this point, hard to know when we don’t have the data to back it up,” said Stephanie Silvera, epidemiologist at Montclair State University. “These numbers are probably higher” than what has been reported, she said.
“We are opening the dining room inside and increasing capacity, so the in-state variant is of concern. And if we let our guard down, it can quickly become the dominant strain.
So far, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is reporting 1,523 cases of the UK variant in 42 US states, although, again, that number is likely a fraction of the actual number of infections. The CDC also reports 21 cases of a South African variant in 10 states and five cases of a Brazilian variant in four states.
The New Jersey Department of Health is working with the federal government and local authorities to sequence samples of the virus and detect strains. Spokeswoman Donna Leusner said the DOH is focused on sequencing “outbreaks with an atypical transmission pattern, cases with international travel to regions where variants are prevalent, and random samples of COVID-positive cases- 19 ”across the state.
The state is working with the CDC and private labs, including Princeton University and Hackensack Meridian Health, to find the variants, Leusner said, adding that the DOH is still trying to expand its efforts.
As these efforts intensify, the ministry has reported more cases of variants. In just over two weeks, the number of cases of the British variant has more than quadrupled, from 11 on February 3 to 50. No cases of the South African or Brazilian variant have yet been reported in the NJ
But since coronavirus sample sequencing is done by laboratories at the state and federal levels, and in the private sector, Leusner said it was difficult to estimate the percentage of samples checked daily for variants.
Samuel Wang, a Princeton University neuroscientist who has studied the virus, said knowing the exact number of variant cases in the state was less important than knowing how often the variants appear in samples. .
“Yes, of course the actual number (of cases) is higher,” Wang said. “But since sequencing costs extra money and resources, it’s only fitting that they haven’t captured them all.
“It would be more helpful for public health authorities to say what percentage of samples show the UK variant. It would be very helpful in putting the threat into perspective. “
But the state’s health department doesn’t know that percentage either.
So the relatively low number of variant cases reported in New Jersey and other states likely makes the situation better than it really is, said Preeti Malani, director of health for the infectious disease and disease divisions. of Geriatric Medicine at the University of Michigan.
“We’re kind of like we were last winter, (saying) ‘Oh, we don’t have COVID, because we haven’t watched,'” Malani said of tracking virus variants. .
Despite the lack of specific data on variant tracking in the NJ, Malani said the state’s strategy of tracking abnormalities in how the virus spreads is a smart way to potentially identify different variants.
“If you see people coming in with serious illness, you probably want to sequence that, people with a travel history,” Malani said. “As people get vaccinated, if there are people who are fully vaccinated who get COVID, you want to sequence that. If something doesn’t make sense or there is a younger, healthier group of people. “
It was inevitable that the coronavirus would mutate. Viral mutations are common. Think about organic evolution in hyper-speed. In a study published earlier this month, a group of scientists identified seven variants that they say mutated in the United States. Still, the CDC pays the most attention to variants from the UK, South Africa, and Brazil.
These three variants are believed to spread more easily than the strain that brought much of the world to a halt over the past year, although the CDC admits it has a lot to learn. Currently mass-produced vaccines are believed to be still effective in preventing serious disease, even in the variants.
But until more people are vaccinated, the variants pose a real threat. British scientists are now saying the British variant, called B.1.1.7, is probably hospitalizing and killing people at a higher rate than the dominant strain of the virus.
Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist who has advised the UK government, told The New York Times this month that the UK variant appears to have a 40 to 60% increase in risk of hospitalization and death.
This increased risk has made tracking variants all the more important for states and the federal government.
“We know it’s here and we’re going to do more sequencing, but that doesn’t change that we have to follow the same preventative measures, including vaccination,” Leusner said.
Each day brings reports of more coronavirus variants detected across the country. But health experts say the instructions for the public remain the same: wear masks and stay away from people. With expanding access to vaccines, the variants could still be controlled.
“If we can encourage people to stay a little longer,” Silvera said. “We are entering a full year now.
“But if we can get through the next few months and really speed up the vaccination process, the new variants won’t be as much of a concern as we will have got it under control.
Our journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today at NJ.com.
Payton Guion can be reached at [email protected].
Tell us your coronavirus story or send a tip here.
[ad_2]
Source link