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How serious is the Delta COVID-19 surge in California?
While the Golden State still used its four-color reopening plan to rank counties by infection rate, at least a dozen, including Los Angeles, Alameda, Contra Costa, and Solano would now be in the most restrictive purple tier, and many companies would. not be fully open.
And that’s using new measures introduced in March that made it easier for counties with higher case rates to move to lower restriction levels once the state hit what it saw as rates. immunizations. Using the state’s original level definitions, 29 counties, including San Francisco, would now be purple, meaning the virus was widespread, a Bay Area News Group analysis found.
The disastrous image comes just over a month since California authorities on June 15 scrapped the reopening plan and its color-coded restrictions on gatherings and business activities and eased requirements for face masks in public for slow the spread of the virus. Since then, sports venues, bars and amusement parks have completely reopened, and people from all over the state have gathered for barbecues and July 4th parties.
“We all forgot about the level system because we wanted to,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health. “We are not in a very good place compared to where we were a month ago. “
California was one of the slowest states to reopen its economy during the pandemic and has one of the highest vaccination rates, especially among large states, with nearly 52% of its population fully vaccinated against the virus compared to 56% in New York, nearly 48% in Florida and 43% in Texas.
But like much of the United States, California is experiencing rapid spread of COVID-19 driven by the highly infectious Delta variant, almost all of those who have not been vaccinated.
On Monday, counties of Napa, Santa Cruz, San Benito and Monterey became the last to urge both vaccinated and unvaccinated people to wear masks indoors in public places to slow the spread of the virus, joining the Most of the other Bay Area counties as well as Sacramento, Fresno and Yolo. Los Angeles placed an order on Saturday.
According to the California Department of Public Health, the virus is spreading statewide at a 7-day average daily rate of 6.3 cases per 100,000 people among the unvaccinated, but at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people among the vaccinated. The department did not have these figures by county.
“Vaccines remain the best protection against COVID-19, including the highly infectious Delta variant,” the CDPH said in a statement on Friday. “As we continue to see the real and aggressive impact of the Delta variant on increasing case rates, we cannot stress enough that it is essential for those who are eligible to be vaccinated.”
California presented its color-coded reopening plan last August amid a summer spike in cases after the state relaxed its March 2020 stay-at-home order to combat the coronavirus.
Under the original plan, counties in which the 7-day average daily COVID-19 cases were 7 per 100,000 people or more were assigned the most restrictive purple level.
At these rates, middle and high schools, and at some levels even elementary schools, could not begin to open campuses to students. Bars were closed and restaurants, theaters and gymnasiums could only operate outdoors, where the virus does not spread easily.
The plan gradually allowed for more gatherings and activities once county case rates plummeted, placing them in “substantial” red, “moderate” orange and “minimal” yellow levels.
At the January peak of the winter COVID-19 fatal case peak in California, all but four rural counties were in the purple level.
In March, as vaccines became more widely available and more people were getting vaccinated, state officials revised level measures to reflect the protection offered by vaccination, allowing countries with high vaccination rates to exit restrictive levels more easily and reopen more businesses. Under the revised rules, the purple level applied to counties with 7-day average daily case rates of 10 per 100,000 people or more.
On June 15, when the state ended its tier system, no county in California remained in the purple tier, and only one was in the red, while 29 were in the yellow tier.
The breathtaking pace of the resurgence of the virus has already led many local health authorities to at least recommend measures such as wearing masks indoors in public for all, vaccinated or not. But state officials have so far not changed their guidelines, including allowing those vaccinated to enter without masks inside.
Swartzberg noted that given the decline in infections since the spring, the large increase in the rate of new cases still implies a relatively small number. Statewide, the 7-day average daily case rate as of Sunday was 7 per 100,000, up significantly from 2 per 100,000 in early June, but well below 109.3 per 100,000 January 9. And hospitalizations and deaths, which tend to lag behind. cases of a few weeks, remain on a downward slope. On Sunday, the 7-day average daily death rate was 0.01 per 100,000, up from 1.7 per 100,000 on January 9.
But given the high transmissibility and rapid spread of the Delta variant, even in the highly vaccinated Bay Area where many people continue to wear masks, further restrictions may be in order.
“The transmissibility of the Delta variant is so much superior to anything we’ve come across,” Swartzberg said. “I think the Bay Area has been wise to recommend indoor masks for everyone. If things continue on the path we’re seeing, the Bay Area will likely have to mandate him and hope that is enough to flatten the curve. “
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