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One of Donald Trump's predecessors in The White House, Theodore Roosevelt, summed up his foreign policy: "Speak kindly and carry a big stick."
Trump chose another line: Last year he was threatening the North- The Korean leaders said "in a speech at the United Nations" that the United States could "completely annihilate" the country.
Iran is now in its turn.
At half past midnight Sunday local time, US President his phone and posted the following message on Twitter:
"To President Rouhani: NEVER, NEVER TRUE USA ELLERS ALSO YOU WILL LIKE THE IMPACT IF YOU NEVER HISTORIC, WE ARE NO LONGER THAN A COUNTRY THAT TRUST YOUR WRONG WORD OF GROWTH AND DEATH, BE CAREFUL! "
Capital letters followed following a speech where the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also does not choose a particular diplomatic language in the United States:
– Peace with the United States Iran is the mother of all peace. Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif does not save the crisis on Monday evening when he responds to Trump's Twitter message: "The world has heard even more evil a few months ago and the Iranians have heard that – although more civilized – for 40 years.We have existed for thousands of years and we have seen empires fall, including ours, which lasted longer than some nations have existed.BE BE CAREFUL! " The message that he joined on Twitter
1. What is the context of the war?
Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran on May 8, which means, among other things, that a number of economic sanctions against the United States. Iran are reintroduced. The United States also threatened other countries if they did not stop buying oil from Iran on November 4.
Iranian leaders have already suggested that they could react by preventing oil tankers from entering the Strait of Ormuz, which constitutes
Trump warned in a speech in Brussels on 12 July that the conflict between the United States and Iran could "degenerate" without going into details.
However, it is clear that Iran is at the top of Trump's list of priorities. currently. On Sunday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a speech in California where he criticized the Iranian leaders.
The American president has long been very critical of Tehran's priesthood. Since July 2011 – four years before becoming a presidential candidate – he has presented the country 289 times on Twitter
2. What were the reactions to Trump's twist?
– It is not surprising that rhetoric is now intensifying. Trump has been involved with powerful Iranian critical advisers, including National Security Advisor John Bolton. It is possible that they think that Iran will join new negotiations at the mere strength of the pressure, "said Mari Salberg, PhD candidate at the UiO and specialist in US foreign policy and from Iran
.
– Trump's statements against Iran are a psychological war. He is not able to act against Iran, "said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, before announcing Monday that he was very pleased with the latest Exit of Trump and Pompei
3. A new summit?
Nine months after Trump threatened to wipe out North Korea, he smiled in Singapore for a summit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. Salberg does not think that something similar will happen this time.
– Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has had a very special position as the enemy of the United States in American consciousness. Iran and the United States are also opposed in several regional conflicts in the Middle East. Iran is much less isolated than North Korea and is in a much stronger position. According to her, neither Iran nor the United States will seem deserved at a summit.
4. Can the United States and Iran end up making war?
The United States burned down on the invasion of Iraq, which turned out to be much more complicated to implement than that of Washington DC.
A military conflict in Iran will probably be very expensive and prolonged. When the Atlantic brought together a group of defense experts in 2004 to see how such a conflict could play, they concluded that the war would be extremely self-destructive for the United States.
An invasion, according to experts, would be risky, among others. could return to US objectives, both in the United States and elsewhere in the world. In addition, a conflict could destabilize other regimes in the region, including Saudi Arabia and other allied countries of the United States.
– And an American attack would be even less judicious today, estimates James Fallows on Twitter Monday.
July 23, 2018
However, the conflict may be further strengthened, says Salberg
– We could witness more drone attacks and less targeted individual attacks against Iranian targets in countries out of Iran, especially in Syria. . I do not think this will lead to a major military conflict, but the situation in international politics is so erratic that it's impossible to predict, "she said. Trump Trying to Distract?
Several US presidents have already been accused of escalating conflicts abroad to divert Americans' attention from their domestic problems.
Salberg thinks it may be the case this year.
– Trump has received a lot of criticism for running Putin's summit, and this week's trial begins with former campaign leader Paul Manafort. Of these difficult cases, "she said.
The case against Manafort is now postponed until next Tuesday, which happened after Aftenposten questioned Salberg.
Trump himself believed that an Iranian attack could be due to completely different things from Iran:
– One day, Obama will attack Iran to show how much he is hard, wrote Trump at the time.
