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Two months after President Donald Trump has released the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran, the United States is taking seriously the threats to sharpen the sanctions regime against l & # 39; Iran. November will impose sanctions on all those importing Iranian oil.
Iran's response could be stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, 20% of the world's oil can be blocked. The result could be a surge in oil prices and a subsequent price shock on gas pumps.
– This is the worst thing imaginable that can happen. According to Thina Saltvedt, chief analyst at Nordea Markets and oil expert, the increase in oil prices is expected to continue
even before Iran threatens to close the Strait of Ormuz. for what could happen if Iranian oil disappeared from the market.
Iran produces about 2.5 million barrels of oil a year. Today, more than two percent of the world's total production. If a large part of their exports is withdrawn from the global market, there is concern that there is little oil on the market. The decline in oil prices over several years has helped to reduce investment and therefore the new production capacity
– Only uncertainty itself raises the price of oil, says Saltvedt
The press on Iran may have unpopular consequences in the United States. still says to a fuel more expensive gas pumps, which is unpopular in the United States at an election.
– President Trump is shooting himself in the foot by making it more difficult for Iran to sell oil, Saltvedt said. concludes that the White House can either reduce Iran's oil exports to zero or forecast moderate prices for gas.
– They can not get both at the same time, he writes.
The United States tried to push OPEC. oil exporting countries, to increase oil production. He also promised to do June 22, but did not say how much.
Trump threatened the countries of OPEC
Trump was not impressed. In an interview this weekend, he accused the OPEC countries of steering oil prices upward. At the same time, he slammed a threat
– They manipulate oil prices. This should stop because we protect these countries, many of these countries, said Trump in the Fox News interview Sunday.
Donald Trump asserted Saturday that he had almost solved the problem by calling King Salman of Saudi Arabia and explaining to him that the problems in Iran and Venezuela made it necessary to increase the oil production.
According to Trump's twitter, Salman agreed that they can increase production up to 2 million barrels of oil a day. day. However, analysts doubt that Saudi Arabia can obtain it in a short period of time.
– This is not only a doubt about the crowd, but also if Saudi Arabia is able to deliver the right kind of oil. Salman of Saudi Arabia and explained to him that because of the turmoil and malfunctions in Iran and Venezuela, I ask Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, perhaps up to ## 148 ## To 2.000.000 barrels, to make the difference … He accepted!
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)
June 30, 2018
Iran may respond to Hormuzstredet
The promise of increased production has already provoked a reaction of anger from Tehran.
– Anyone trying to take part of the Iranian oil market According to Reuters, Iranian Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri said on Sunday that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had persuaded Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to disrupt regional oil exports
. He did not say what it would mean, but Iranian officials have already threatened to stop the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, reports Reuters.
On Wednesday, the boss of foreign operations of the Revolutionary Court shouted that he had kissed Rouhani's hand and congratulated him for his "wise" statements. Reuters writes: "I am ready to introduce any hold in the service of the Islamic Republic," writes General Qassem Soleimani in a letter to IRNA, the state-of-the-art Iranian news agency
]. They say that they are ready to interfere with the very important oil traffic of the Persian Bay.
Thina Saltvedt says she doubts this to happen.
Can China save Iran?
Iran also said it would try to sell oil on the private market. The Turkish Finance Minister has already said that he does not want to be dictated by US sanctions
– Part of Iran's oil can go to China, Saltvedt thinks.
But China is not sure to save Iran. says Al-Monitor. China is Iran 's most important trading partner, but for China, trade with Iran is not so important. It represents only 1% of foreign trade. Bilateral trade with the United States is 17 times higher.
The question then is what China chooses, exclusively financial interests or the need to comply with international agreements. China, like Europe, criticized Trump's decision to withdraw the country from the nuclear agreement
Ready for the celebration of Oslo Børs
Experts predict large fluctuations in oil prices that are already twice as high as last year. Some talk about oil prices over $ 100 a barrel. For Oslo Børs, which is closely related to the price of oil, this usually means one thing:
– It could be a party in Oslo Børs, writes Henrik Sommerfelt in CMC Markets in a comment, according to Hegnar.no.
