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University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely says he believes NSW and Victoria can tolerate up to 2,000 cases of COVID-19 a day “but not comfortably,” and it’s important states don’t exceed not that number.
He said restrictions on coronaviruses should be relaxed when numbers were as low as possible. Currently, NSW is expected to lift some restrictions for fully vaccinated people in mid-October. Modeling by the Burnet Institute suggests that the number of cases in areas of NSW local government concern will peak in the coming weeks.
Professor Blakely told ABC Radio National this morning that “I think maybe we need to take a different way of thinking about this and really start thinking about what our ceiling is” of infections.
Professor Tony Blakely.
“We need to start thinking about how much leeway we have… Any changes or openings we want to make – and this will be the tricky part – are going to require clarity and honesty from politicians only when they will open, we will have to watch and we may have to retreat, as we begin to threaten that limit.
“You want to open with numbers as low as possible, and go down, because if you open when the numbers say the number 1000 is still going up very quickly, that’s not a good scenario.”
Victoria’s current Reff rate – a measure of how many people an infected person will pass the virus to – is 1.7.
Professor Blakely said current mobility data shows there is more movement in Victoria’s current lockdown than there has been before.
“There is fatigue, and during your hour or two of exercise each day, you just have to walk around to see the number of people hanging out in front of cafes, chatting with their friends and jabbering in the parks,” a- he declared.
“I don’t want to be critical, because as human beings we yearn for this social connection. I think we are all confined here in Victoria so it has been difficult to maintain compliance with public health orders essentially. “
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