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Spencer Custodio |
Orange County hospitalizations and cases continue to climb, with potential southern California shutdown Gov. Gavin Newsom is looming in an effort to keep hospitals from running out of steam.
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County hospitalizations rose 230% in November, and OC recorded an average of about 1,000 new cases of the virus per day over the past week. The positivity rate also more than doubled to over 8%.
These trends are ahead of a potential Thanksgiving spike, which worries local public health experts and critical care physicians.
“We’re just going to see a continuation of the same trend that we’re seeing … then after that we’re going to see an explosion, I would predict,” said UC epidemiologist and public health expert Andrew Noymer in a brief. phone Friday. interview.
He said a potential Christmas peak was too far away to be expected.
“What we see around Christmas time is anyone’s guess,” Noymer said. “It may be bad enough that people are paying attention this time around. It’s a little hard to say that the Thanksgiving explosion will be followed by a Christmas explosion.
It’s unclear when a potential home-hold order could be announced, but at a press conference on Monday, Newsom hinted it could happen this week.
“We will see a lot more of you all this week. It’s a dynamic week… I can assure you that we will be releasing additional information, additional recommendations in the very, very near future, ”Newsom said in response to a question from a Fox 11 reporter.
Meanwhile, more and more people continue to be hospitalized with the virus in Orange County.
On Tuesday, 648 people were hospitalized, including 158 in intensive care units.
Hospitalizations skyrocketed last month, from 183 to 605 people hospitalized by the end of the month.
It is a triple increase.
Dr Michael Katz, who treats patients infected with the virus in the intensive care unit at St. Jude’s Hospital in Fullerton, said the peak of the second wave could be worse than in July.
“Right now it’s almost at the same level as we were in July. Looking at the rates of increase, at this point I think it’s clear it’s going to exceed what it was in July, ”Katz said in a telephone interview on Tuesday.
More than 700 people were hospitalized at one point in July.
Katz said St. Jude’s has seen a steady increase in recent times.
“In the last three weeks or so, the number of patients has practically tripled and that’s about 50% more than last week,” he said.
In a phone interview on Tuesday, Mission Hospital’s Dr Jim Keany expressed concern about a potential Thanksgiving spike.
“Since we kind of had a spike in the number of cases before Thanksgiving, then we’re anticipating what we call a Thanksgiving effect. The fact that the guns were primed before Thanksgiving to detonate, we are all concerned about Christmas we might be overwhelmed, ”said Keany, who treats people in the intensive care unit.
Growing hospital admissions are beginning to strain the ability of some hospitals to manage cardiac surgery patients and other specialist care services.
“Right now we are definitely seeing a significant increase in numbers. Fortunately, it seems less serious than when it launched in April. But the numbers are so increased that it still creates challenges for intensive care in specialized areas of the hospital, ”Keany said.
He also said that this peak is not hitting as hard because hospitals have more resources and strike planning in place compared to the first wave.
We are ready for battle. We have done the exercises, we have all the necessary equipment, the space is organized. We are increasing staff where possible, but there was a shortage of nurses before COVID so it remains, ”Keany said in a telephone interview on Tuesday.
But Keany, who is also associate director of the emergency department, said the increases were starting to wreak havoc on already tired medical workers.
“Not only is it continuing, but it is accelerating. It’s a little demoralizing for the medical staff “to see such a high influx of hospitalizations, Keany said.
Katz and Keany said intensive care and intensive care doctors learned how to treat patients better during the first wave.
“Our death rates are going down because we are learning all the nuances of this particular new virus and learning how to treat it more effectively and efficiently,” Keany said. “We have new treatments. They are not remedies, but they reduce the severity.
Since the start of the pandemic, the virus has killed 1,577 people out of 79,343 cases.
The virus has already killed nearly three times as many people in Orange County as the flu on average each year.
For context, Orange County has recorded an average of around 20,000 deaths per year since 2016, including 543 annual flu deaths, according to health data status.
“It’s not just a bad flu,” Keany said. “I would say of the (coronavirus) patients that I admit, I would say 75% end up in the intensive care unit.
According to these death statistics, cancer kills more than 4,600 people, heart disease kills more than 2,800, more than 1,400 die of Alzheimer’s disease, and strokes kill more than 1,300 people.
The county is on track to exceed its annual death average with more than 19,000 deaths in October, according to state of health data.
Katz said they have different treatment strategies for certain phases of the disease and learned what worked during the last wave.
“We had the ability to plan and prepare. So that’s a positive point, ”Katz said.
But the two doctors warn the public shouldn’t afford to mask and avoid large crowds, as high case rates mean more hospitalizations, which could impact routine care like treatments for the diabetes and care for other chronic diseases.
Hospitals have not suspended non-COVID treatments, as they did in the first wave.
The two doctors have also seen people struggle with the lingering effects of the virus.
Keany said some of the symptoms that persist range from “lack of energy – they can’t even get through a normal day without excessive fatigue – to long-term neurological problems.” And the blood clot problem, once you have a blood clot in your lungs, you have to take a blood thinner for 6 months to a year.
Katz also said he has seen a wide range of persistent symptoms.
“Some people go on with shortness of breath, go on with a cough. Some people continue with mental confusion or anxiety that was different from before. So there is a range of different symptoms and symptoms can persist. ”
St. Jude’s has created a special team to deal with the lingering effects of the disease.
“So we have a post COVID recovery program to help people with a lot of these symptoms and it’s made up of a few specialist doctors and therapists,” Katz said.
“There is a specialist in rehabilitation and also physiotherapy, occupational therapy and a pulmonary doctor for respiratory symptoms. I think this is going to be necessary for a while because so many people are affected.
Here are the latest figures on viruses in Orange County from county data:
Infections | Hospitalizations and Deaths | City by city data | Demography
Spencer Custodio is a Voice of OC reporter. You can reach him at [email protected] Follow him on twitter @SpencerCustodio
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