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(Bloomberg) – Crude has surpassed $ 81 a barrel as the global electricity crisis stimulates demand for oil ahead of winter.
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West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.7% to their highest level since October 2014. Prices for fuels such as coal and natural gas soar in Europe and Asia as stocks run out before the northern hemisphere winter, prompting a switch to petroleum products such as diesel. and kerosene.
The structure of the oil market has also exploded in recent days, a sign of growing bullish sentiment among traders. The difference between the two closest December WTI contracts – known in industry jargon as Dec.-Red-Dec. spread – topped $ 8 a barrel on Monday, its widest since 2014.
The benchmark US crude index has risen about 30% since mid-August as the energy crisis has intensified. Saudi Aramco estimates that the gas shortage has already increased demand for oil by about 500,000 barrels per day, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees consumption soar even higher. The shift from gas to oil is also evident in the increased profits from diesel and fuel oil production for refiners in Europe.
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“Refinery margins are suddenly healthy again,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief raw materials analyst at SEB AB. “It is a real demand for crude oil that is being felt. “
Still, it’s possible that signs of slowing global growth – in part due to soaring energy prices – are easing some of the demand pressure on crude. Goldman has downgraded its US expansion forecast this year and next, lagging the pickup in consumer spending. The energy crises in China and India could also cause a slowdown in Asia.
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