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The northern half of Louisiana has been identified as one of the most vulnerable areas in the United States to a coronavirus outbreak and an area very likely to produce variants, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Georgetown.
The analysis identified a total of 30 hot spots in the United States where vaccination is low and the population is high enough that there is a good chance of interaction.
An analysis by researchers at Georgetown University has identified the five most likely areas for a COVID-19 outbreak that could serve as fertile ground for future variants.
Of the top five areas where researchers are most convinced of high risk, the area that covers Louisiana – comprising 29 parishes and Monroe, Alexandria and Shreveport – is the “most important,” lead researcher Shweta Bansal said, associate professor of biology at Georgetown.
“If I had to rank them, it would actually be the first,” Bansal said.
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The other four clusters straddle the borders of surrounding states, including Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico.
In the past two weeks, four of those states – Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee – have seen the number of cases increase by about 100%.
Five counties in Arkansas have seen hospitalizations increase from 240% to 950% in the past 14 days. In Missouri, the surge in hospitalizations led to the deployment of a federal COVID-19 rescue team as open hospital beds dwindled.
While the Southeastern United States has some of the lowest vaccination rates, there are many pockets in the country where vaccinations are lagging behind, such as the Dakotas and Nevada, Bansal pointed out. What makes these five pockets different is the possibility of a meeting that would quickly spread the virus in the community.
They were fishermen, artists, basketball coaches, bus drivers.
“Humans don’t just interact with each other at random,” Bansal said. “These are not only places with low immunization coverage, but also an expectation of significant interactions with each other.”
The results show how the concept of herd immunity, in which the virus can no longer spread or mutate because there are not enough unprotected hosts, is of local importance.
“This is the story of two Americas. Some hospitals are closing their COVID departments; some hospitals open them, ”said Charles Stoecker, an expert in vaccine policy at Tulane University. “It’s just a whole different experience depending on where you are. “
In the 29 identified Louisiana parishes, immunization rates are on average about 26%, well below the national rate of 47.8%.
In places where vaccination is low and interaction high, the virus is more likely to mutate into something that could bypass current vaccines.
“Every time it passes from one person to another, it is an opportunity for a new variant to develop,” said Susan Hassig, epidemiologist at Tulane University. “That’s what viruses do. When they have a chance to spread, they will continue to mutate. “
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Viruses are spread by replicating themselves. Sometimes a mistake is made during this replication process, known as a mutation. Most mutations are of no consequence. But every once in a while, as with the now dominant Delta variant, a mutation makes the virus more efficient at infecting cells, and a variant is born.
So far, vaccines have been a good match for the variants. But the fear is that a future variant will develop characteristics that allow it to escape the protections of the vaccine.
“Tomorrow we may not have that chance,” Bansal said. “The next variant that emerges, maybe our current vaccines won’t be effective against. It would be like going back to 2020. ”
The analysis did not take into account how often people in these parishes actually travel or interact, although a future study will measure mobility, providing a clearer picture of how a virus might sweep through a community. and surrounding areas.
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But given that delta, the dominant variant in Louisiana and its neighboring states, is more transmissible, and evidence accumulates that a previous infection does not protect against it, public health experts suggest considering the vaccination rate of the surrounding population when assessing personal risk.
“If you are in one of these areas, you may not want to wait for a public health or political authority to make a decision for you,” Hassig said. “You may want to take relatively easy steps to protect yourself, wearing a mask in public, especially indoors.”
Emily Woodruff covers public health for The Times-Picayune | The New Orleans Advocate as a member of the Report For America corps.
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