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OPEC on Wednesday revised down its forecast of global oil demand growth from 80,000 to 1 billion barrels a day, evoking lower demand in the first half of the year and prospects for slowing economic growth. for the rest of the year.
In its tightly monitored oil market monthly report, the cartel also reduced its 60,000 bar / d to its global oil demand growth forecast in 2020, mainly due to changes in the economic outlook for the oil market. ;next year.
Demand for OPEC crude oil for 2019 has also been reduced – from 80,000 barrels per day to 30.6 million barrels per day, or one million barrels below the 2018 level. OPEC's crude oil for 2020 now stands at 29.4 million bpd, or about 1.2 million bpd below the level forecast for 2019.
OPEC's revised estimates are now closer to what many analysts and investment banks have predicted, namely that growth in global oil demand will not exceed more than one million barrels per day .
Yesterday again, the EIA lowered its oil demand growth forecast to 900,000 barrels / day, a drop of 100,000 barrels from August's forecast, pointing out that if the outlook materialized , this year would be the first year since 2011 in which growth in demand would not have exceeded the one million bpd.
OPEC said the weaker growth in oil demand, which should be surpassed by strong growth in supply from countries other than OPEC, underlines the shared responsibility of all producing countries to support the stability of the oil market in order to avoid undesirable volatility and a possible relapse into the market imbalance. "
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On the supply side, official OPEC figures for August production confirm the findings of a previous survey. According to estimates from previous surveys, the deal increased production last month.
OPEC increased production by 136,000 barrels a day from July, reaching 29.741 billion barrels last month, boosted by increased production in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iraq. The Saudis have increased their output by 118,000 barrels a day to 9,805 million barrels a day, but more than 500,000 barrels below their quota set in the agreement. Iraq, OPEC's second largest producer, which has struggled to keep its cap, has increased oil production from 43,000 barrels a day to 4,779 million barrels a day, well above its quota of 4.512 million barrels per day.
At the same time, production in Venezuela dropped 43,000 barrels a day to an average of 712,000 barrels a day in August, according to OPEC sources.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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