[ad_1]
While everyone is talking about the rise in crude oil production in the United States that will offset much of the ongoing production cuts between OPEC and non-OPEC, other oil producers are not participating in the deal. OPEC + and are ready to see their production increase this year.
Record US oil production will drive non-OPEC supply growth this year, confirms all analysts and estimates. Brazil will rank second among non-OPEC countries for output growth, where several new start-up and ramp-up companies are expected to generate the strongest annual growth in oil production. oil production in the country for at least two decades.
The latest estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC show that Brazil's production growth will be around 360,000 b / d from 2018 and that Brazil will post the second highest strong growth in supply, just behind the United States.
The increase in production in Brazil will increase the supply of crude oil in the world, in addition to the growth of production in the United States, at a time when OPEC and its non-member partners OPEC-led OPEC retains 1.2 million barrels a day, in hopes of rebalancing the market and driving down oil prices. up.
US record production and growth forecasts continue until 2019 and 2020 have limited oil prices in recent months. In its latest report on short-term energy outlook (STEO), the EIA estimates that crude oil production in the United States averaged 12.0 million barrels per day in January 2019, an increase of 90,000 barrels from December 2018, and 12.4 million barrels per day in 2019 and 13.2 million barrels per day. 2020, with the bulk of Permian growth. Related: Eliminating Mexico's dependence on US natural gas
Added to this is the hope that Brazilian production will grow by 360,000 b / d this year, and that OPEC and its allies could consider extending the cuts beyond their expiry date in June. 2019. OPEC + should review the agreement in April.
Although any decision will depend not only on the growth of production outside the agreement, but also on supply cuts from Iran and Venezuela due to the sanctions imposed by the states And forecasts for global demand growth, Brazil will likely contribute to increasing oil market supply in two months. "time, potentially further complicating the estimates of the supply of OPEC and its allies.
Brazil has failed to achieve the strong production growth expected in recent years due to various delays in projects, but this year the IEA and OPEC see the Latin American producer boost the supply of oil.
The IEA predicts that Brazilian oil production will increase by an average of 365,000 bpd by 2019, with several new production units about to start or ramp up. Last year, Brazil's oil production dropped from 40,000 barrels a day to 2.7 million barrels a day. This year, production is expected to reach 3.06 million bpd on average, the IEA said in its report on the oil market in January.
According to Bloomberg estimates based on IEA figures, growth in Brazilian oil production this year would be the highest for at least 20 years.
OPEC, for its part, said in its monthly report on the oil market in February that Brazil would add 360,000 b / d to its 2019 production. Intensive maintenance work carried out on the oil market is expected. last summer and the sharp declines recorded in the mature fields of the Campos basin, associated with the late start of several salt pre-treatment projects in the Santos basin, weighed on Brazilian production in 2018 contracted by 40,000 bpd. Related: Permian production should break 4 million barrels a day in March
But this month alone, the Brazilian national oil company Petrobras has announced the start of production of two projects in the Santos pre-salt basin via floating storage and unloading storage vessels (FPSO). One of them is the P-67 platform, capable of processing up to 150,000 barrels a day in the Lula Norte area in the Lula field, which is currently the largest Brazil's production zone and is expected to reach the one million barrels a day mark this year. The other is the P-76 platform, the third platform to go into production in the Búzios field in the Santos Basin, also designed for a processing capacity of 150,000 barrels a day. It was the second platform launched in 2019 out of a total of four scheduled for this year, Petrobras announced on Wednesday.
"Oil production could increase significantly in 2019 if delayed FPSO vessels and other scheduled facilities come into service during the year," said OPEC last week on Brazil.
The agreement also noted that "Brazil has never exported as much crude oil as in 2018." Brazilian gross exports reached 1.12 million bpd on average the year last, up 13.3% from 2017 and accounting for about 40% of total production.
Energy Research Corporation (EPE) linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, estimates that oil production in the pre-salt regions will double over the next eight years and that the country will become l & # 39; one of the five largest exporters in the world, "said OPEC. I said.
Brazil's prolific saline salt basin would be a boon for the country's oil, but it could be the scourge of OPEC's efforts to rebalance the market.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
More from Reading Oilprice.com:
[ad_2]
Source link