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Orange County reported 1,058 new cases of COVID-19, but no additional deaths on Sunday, bringing the county total to 77,819 cases with 1,577 deaths.
The number of county residents hospitalized with the virus rose sharply from 534 on Saturday to 597, with the number of intensive care patients rising from 138 to 148, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency.
The change in the three-day average of hospitalized patients fell from 12.3% to 13.6%. The county has 25% of its intensive care unit beds and 63% of its ventilators.
Rising numbers over the holiday weekend appear to confirm fears among officials of a Thanksgiving-fueled surge. Orange County CEO Frank Kim said earlier this week he was “very concerned” about the increase in cases and hospitalizations.
“And although the various hospitals (executives) with which I have conversations seem more confident today than they were at the onset of the disease in how to treat it, I do not take anything lightly” Kim said. “Any increase in hospitalizations and resuscitation rates is of great concern to our community.
Officials recommend waiting at least two days after an event or gathering to get tested, as the infection might not be detected right away.
Andrew Noymer, associate professor of population health and disease prevention at UC Irvine, warned of a bleak winter.
“I’m very worried about the trends we’re going to see after Thanksgiving,” Noymer told City News Service. “People don’t like it when we record the summer wave deaths until October.”
Noymer predicted more cases than the July peak.
“But it won’t be just like another July and will go away,” Noymer said. “I think it will get worse.”
The last time hospitalization rates were this high was on August 10, Noymer said.
“At the end of next week, we’ll be back in July (levels),” Noymer said. “And it’s going to cream like July or keep getting worse. There is reason to believe we could keep getting worse.”
Noymer said this was mainly because the colder weather pushed people into more activities indoors and some students were still taking classes in classrooms.
The worst day for COVID-19 hospitalizations in Orange County was July 14, when there were 722 patients.
In the state’s multi-level surveillance system, which is updated on Tuesday, the county’s adjusted daily case rate per 100,000 population has increased from 10.8 to 17.2 and the positivity rate has increased from 4.6% to 6.8%.
The positivity rate falls within the red level of the state’s four-level reopening roadmap, but the daily rate of cases per 100,000 is well above the 8% threshold for the most purple level. restrictive.
Kim said he was optimistic the vaccines are on their way and should arrive by the end of the year. Hospital systems will receive the vaccines directly and individual hospitals will receive doses from the county, Kim said.
Frontline health workers will be among the first to be vaccinated, along with people with underlying health conditions that make them particularly vulnerable to the disease.
NBC4’s Conan Nolan speaks with Los Angeles County Director of Health Barbara Ferrer, PhD, about steps being taken to stem the rise in COVID cases. Are we doing enough or are some measures such as banning al fresco dining – deemed unnecessary by some – end up increasing transmission of the virus by sending more people indoors?
The hope is that increased testing and awareness of infections will encourage more quarantine and isolation and other social distancing practices that help curb the spread of the virus, Kim said.
The county’s tests per 100,000 stand at 354.1, exceeding the county’s testing targets at this point, Kim said.
Kim said the county was focusing on encouraging testing. The number of tests carried out in the county was 1,445,183, with 8,037 reported on Sunday. There were 59,401 documented recoveries.
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