Oregon again surpasses 1,000 coronavirus cases, predicts nearly 1,200 a day by mid-August

The first official COVID-19 forecast using data since Governor Kate Brown lifted pandemic restrictions almost a month ago shows daily coronavirus cases could approach Oregon’s peak last December in a matter of weeks .

Analysis from the Oregon Health Authority, released Friday, found that in the week ending July 14, each person infected with COVID-19 infected an average of 1.58 others. If that rate holds, Oregon could see 1,170 new cases per day in the two weeks ending Aug. 17, nearly double the current seven-day average, and 95 new hospitalizations per day.

Oregon’s case count this week indicates that the state is not too far off reaching the state’s projections. Health officials on Friday reported 1,076 new coronavirus cases and 298 hospitalizations – just two beds from the threshold Brown used in the past to put in some COVID-19 restrictions. Friday marked the third time this week that Oregon has surpassed 1,000 new cases.

The state has recommended that all Oregonians wear masks in indoor public spaces, in response to the rapidly spreading infections that the Oregon Health Authority has attributed to the highly contagious delta variant.

Announcing the number of cases on Friday, however, the health authority said it knew 58 people who attended an outdoor music festival in eastern Oregon and tested positive for COVID- 19.

“The outbreak highlights the importance of protective measures Oregonians can take to limit the spread and their potential exposure to COVID-19, including wearing masks and vaccinations,” the health authority said in a statement. communicated.

Meanwhile, an updated model from Oregon Health & Science University showed that without virtually immediate changes in Oregonian behavior, the pandemic would spread rapidly.

“It’s going to be like a wildfire burning pretty fast,” said Peter Graven, an OHSU professor who releases new COVID-19 forecasts every week. “We’re going to get to collective immunity one way or another. And doing it by infection is not good. “

Masks, Graven said, are the immediate solution to slow the spread.

“If we had all kept our masks on, the Delta variant wouldn’t do what we’re seeing right now,” Graven said.

Oregonians must start wearing masks now if the state is to prevent a rapid spike in infections, he said. Ideally, at least 70% of the population would wear masks, which would save the state time as more people get vaccinated.

But relying solely on the state’s mask recommendation and the tendency for people to take precautions in response to spikes in cases, Graven said he wouldn’t expect to see more than about 60% of Oregonians wear masks.

“If it’s state policy, it’s going to catch a lot of people,” Graven said.

The state’s projections come as federal, state and local officials grapple with the political and public safety implications of taking aggressive action to curb the spread of disease.

While large-scale vaccinations are considered virtually the most effective way to eradicate COVID-19, vaccinations have slowed, especially in rural and conservative parts of Oregon. And officials are loath to institute the kind of restrictions that just over a month ago were declared, with much fanfare, to be a thing of the past.

The health authority offered a note of optimism, subject to Oregonians taking action to curb the spread.

“With the additional statewide recommendations for mask wear and the significant increase in hospitalizations, it is possible that people may decide to adapt more protective behaviors and help stop the sharp increases in hospitalizations, “wrote the health authority.

Health officials did not attribute the increase in COVID-19 transmission rates to any cause, instead saying the increase “matches the increase in the Delta variant” and the reopening of the state on June 30th.

State analysis of past cases has underscored the current trope that the United States is seeing an unvaccinated pandemic. As of July 28, counties where less than 60% of the population was vaccinated had much higher infection and hospitalization rates than counties with 60% or more people vaccinated, according to the health authority.

The state did not predict what would happen if Oregonians started wearing masks or if the state mandated them or reinstated social distancing and capacity restrictions.

This message will be updated.

– Fedor Zarkhin