Oregon on precipice of another COVID wave, modeling suggests

The spread of COVID-19 in Oregon is on the verge of another deadly wave, with new modeling suggesting the state could see nearly 1,200 new cases and nearly 100 new hospitalizations each day by the next day. mid August.

Even with more than half of the state’s population believed to be immune through a vaccine or have already contracted the virus, state health officials say the fast-travel delta variant has left Oregon again at the crossroads. The answer to the rush, state epidemiologist Dean Sidelinger said on Friday, is that eligible people get vaccinated and everyone hide in indoor public spaces.

“If you’re not ready to do any of these, you need to change your plans or plan to contract COVID-19 and maybe plan to get very sick,” Sidelinger said at a conference. hurry.

The message comes as the nature of the potential of the delta variant is increasingly understood. New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that even people who have been vaccinated can become potent carriers of the variant. This has resulted in new guidelines that people should wear masks in public places, regardless of their immunization status.

The state’s new modeling looks a lot more like the urgent warnings health officials gave last winter than the “reopening” celebratory event hosted by Governor Kate Brown in Portland exactly one month ago.

Data suggests that each case of COVID-19 in the state is now spreading to more than one person on average – 1.58 to be exact – a worrying scenario that can lead to an exponential spread. It’s much slower than experts expect the virus to spread without vaccines and other tools, but faster than the state has seen since the spread last increased in April.

As a result, new cases and hospitalizations are both on the rise, with hospital occupancy rates rising 77% between July 20 and July 28, according to state figures. If the trend continues unabated, authorities estimate Oregon will see a daily average of 1,170 new cases between August 4 and August 17. This week alone, the state has already recorded more than 1,000 new cases daily on multiple occasions.

The modeling also suggests that hospitalizations could jump to 95 people per day by August 17, a daily increase that would represent nearly a third of the total of 298 people currently hospitalized for COVID in the state.

In the face of this threat, Sidelinger continued to pressure Oregonians to get vaccinated and resume widespread use of the mask in public.

“I am extremely worried right now… but extremely grateful that we have the tools to help in this fight,” he said. Speaking to unvaccinated Oregonians, he added: “You’re probably more at risk right now than at any time of the pandemic if you get together with others…”

Despite the risk, the state has shown little willingness to resume compulsory mask wearing or to resume restrictions on business operations and social gatherings. Pressed repeatedly on what might have to happen for this to change, Sidelinger questioned whether a mask mandate would have more impact on skeptical communities than the recommendations currently in place by the Oregon Health Authority.

“The requirement in itself… does not change the behavior of people,” he said. “I need people to face the situation that awaits them.

Sidelinger said health officials will continue to monitor hospital capacity and daily hospitalizations as they decide whether new rules are needed.

Governor Brown was also wary of the resumption of restrictions, although new modeling suggests the spread of COVID-19 was quietly increasing even before she abandoned the remaining restrictions on June 30. Brown’s administration has chosen to leave the responsibility for developing restrictions to local health officials.

“Vaccination is clearly our best defense against the Delta variant,” Charles Boyle, the governor’s deputy director of communications, said in an email Friday. “Oregonians have been through so much in the past year and our businesses have taken on enormous burdens. While we’ve learned not to rule anything out, we also know that local response efforts are most effective at this point in the pandemic in reaching unvaccinated Oregonians. “

Brown has taken some action in recent days, announcing on Thursday that masks would be mandatory in schools when they are picked up and making masks mandatory in many state agencies. Boyle said the governor was “reviewing” actions taken by the Biden administration and the state of California, both of which have mandated vaccines for public workers. Brown is “figuring out what other action can be taken in Oregon,” he said.