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The number of Oregonians hospitalized with COVID-19 peaked on September 1. But experts say the situation is still serious and hospitalization rates will likely remain high for months.
“The good news is we’ve peaked,” said Peter Graven of Oregon Health and Science University. “The bad news is that the model shows that it could be until the end of October or even November before we really hit the levels we had before the surge.”
More than half of Oregon’s intensive care units are now filled with COVID-19 patients, including the medical intensive care unit shown here at OHSU Hospital. A new forecast from the OHSU reveals that hospitals in Oregon will remain under great pressure for the next two to three months, with a gradual decline in hospitalizations linked to COVID-19.
Erin Hoover Barnett / OHSU
Hospitals in Oregon remain under extreme pressure. There are about 10 times more people hospitalized today than there were in July. About half of all intensive care units in the state are filled with COVID-19 patients, the vast majority of whom have not been vaccinated.
“It looks like we are seeing the flattening of cases that we had hoped for,” Graven said. “However, we still anticipate that it will be a very long time before hospitalization levels return to more manageable levels.”
The new OHSU forecast shows that the virus can spread with about 27% of Oregon’s population susceptible to infection, meaning people who are not yet immune through vaccination or a natural infection.
Graven said he is watching pediatric cases closely, especially as schools reopen across Oregon.
“It is certainly still possible to generate a new wave of serious illnesses,” he said.
The hospitalization rate is also subject to change if another variant sets in or if people are less hesitant to be vaccinated.
Graven said the vaccination rate tends to increase in areas hardest hit by the pandemic. But then there is also a pattern of ‘fear then fatigue’, where people are afraid of catching the virus so they take the necessary action, then they tire of going through the steps to stop and the virus starts to spread again. spread.
Graven’s data shows Oregonians are improving their wave response by increasing their mask use to 84% as of Sept. 7. His data also shows a moderate decline in behaviors such as attending large indoor events. His hope is that over time Oregon can achieve some form of herd immunity where there are so many people who have been vaccinated or have already been sick with the virus, that COVID-19 cannot. more spread efficiently.
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