[ad_1]
Following his surprise victory in the best BAFTA film, "Roma" has consolidated its status as an Oscar favorite according to the current odds of the Gold Derby circuit. Although "Roma" has been in front for weeks, the defeat of "The Favorite" on his ground has led many to think that this race could be over. But not so fast!
Since the Oscars put in place this delicate preferential ballot, the data to be taken into account are much more numerous. Let's see why I think that "Blackkklansman" could trigger a shock Sunday.
Since Best Picture has been decided by a preferential vote only since 2009, I will be content with the last nine years to gauge more relevant information. I have reviewed each of the great precursors and Oscar nominations that often coincide with a winner of the best film. One thing has been bullet-proof in recent years: every winner of the best movie has been nominated for a script award. If we take this statistic seriously, throw "Black Panther" and "Bohemian Rhapsody" at the forefront. From there, there were exceptions to each rule.
The next two most important statistics are the appointments for management and publishing. Eight of the last nine winners have been named in both cases. This is the first red flag for "Roma", which missed a nomination for the edition. "BlacKkKlansman" managed to catch both, but lost ground due to his lack of cinematography nominations, including six of the last nine winners of the best film.
The next big blow to "Roma" came from the Screen Actors Guild, which completely neglected her. All films other than last year's champion, "The Shape of Water", were nominated for a SAG Ensemble award, but even "The Shape of Water" had two individual nominees at the SAG Awards. Meanwhile, "BlacKkKlansman" obtained from the guild of actors this extremely important offer for the whole, putting it in a comfortable position to win the victory of the best film.
S & # 39; REGISTER for the free Gold Derby newsletter with the latest forecasts
Better news for "Roma", he won the first prize of the DGA, which coincided with the winners of the best film in six of the last nine years. He also won first prize at Critics Choice and was nominated for PGA (this award was awarded to "Green Book"). Staying in the race, "BlacKkKlansman" was at least in the running with nominations at the DGA, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA and Golden Globes.
While the sum of these awards may seem to strongly favor "Roma" to win the award for best film, the statistics confer a slight advantage to "BlacKkKlansman". that a "Roma" victory would be unprecedented. The fact that it is the first foreign language film to be won is already a major obstacle for the film. Can "Roma" really break all these rules? Or will "BlacKkKlansman" end up going when it's the most important? You will find below the ranking of the best film nominees this year based on their statistical probability of winning.
SEE 2019 Oscars Experts Forecast: 8 Nominees for Best Film to Win 91st Oscars
"BlacKkKlansman"(Oscar nominations for directing, editing and screenplay, DGA candidate, PGA candidate, SAG Ensemble candidate, BAFTA candidate, Critics Choice candidate, Golden Globes Drama nominee )
"Roma"(Oscar nominations for the director, screenplay and cinematography, DGA winner, Critics Choice winner, BAFTA winner, PGA candidate)
"The favourite"(Oscar Nominations for Direction, Screenplay and Cinematography, PGA Candidate, BAFTA Candidate, Critics Choice Candidate, Golden Globes Comedy Candidate)
"Green paper"(Editions and Screenplay Oscar Nominations, PGA Winner, Golden Globes Comedy Winner, DGA Candidate, BAFTA Candidate, Critics Choice Candidate)
"A star is born"(Scenario and Cinematography Oscar nominations, DGA nominee, PGA nominee, SAG nominee, BAFTA nominee, Critics Choice nominee, Golden Globes Drama nominee)
"Vice"(Oscar nominations for directing, editing and screenplay, DGA nominee, PGA nominee, BAFTA nominee, Critics Choice nominee, Golden Globes Comedy nominee)
"Bohemian Rhapsody"(Oscar nomination, Golden Globes winner Drama, AMP nominee, SAG Ensemble nominee)
"Black Panther"(SAG Ensemble Winner, PGA Candidate, Critics Choice Candidate, Golden Globes Drama Candidate)
Be sure to check out how our experts are ranking the Oscar nominees this year. Then take a look at the latest combined ratings before making your own 2019 Oscars predictions. Do not be afraid to step in now, as you can change your predictions to the announcement. names of the winners on February 24th.
[ad_2]
Source link