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Thousands of men could be spared treatment that would change their lives for prostate cancer as a result of a scientific breakthrough.
They can now know how likely they are to die in 10 or 15 years and how much of a treatment will improve their chances of survival.
For a third of prostate cancer patients, about 15,000 men in Britain, the risk of death is so low that the choice to undergo surgery or radiotherapy will bring little benefit.
The decision to continue treatment is now easier after scientists have developed a computer questionnaire.
Thousands of men could be spared from the treatment of prostate cancer that would change their lives after the development of a questionnaire by Cambridge scientists
The questionnaire, which only takes a few minutes and should be completed under the supervision of a doctor, gives men their personal risk of dying from prostate cancer or another illness during the 15 to 15 years. coming years.
They can then see a graph showing their increased chances of survival after treatment.
The results are based on men's stage of cancer, their age and the results of medical tests, and allow them to weigh the benefit obtained in relation to their chances of suffering from erectile dysfunction and incontinence if they undergo surgery.
He could see more men choose "active surveillance," which means that a doctor is watching their prostate cancer closely.
Dr. Vincent Gnanapragasam, of Cambridge University, who participated in the development of the questionnaire, said: "We believe that this tool could significantly reduce the number of unnecessary treatments – and potentially dangerous – that patients receive and save millions of NHS each year.
"It's not about rationing treatments, but about empowering patients and their clinicians to make decisions based on better evidence.
"In some cases, treatment will be the right option, but in many others, patients will want to weigh the benefits of treatment against the risks of side effects."
Prostate cancer is diagnosed in more than 47,000 men each year in Britain and the number of patients is expected to increase by 69% by 2030.
Currently, the NHS classifies men as being at low, medium or high risk for prostate cancer – a measure that, according to the evidence, is accurate only in 60-70% of cases.
The new questionnaire was found to be 84% accurate in predicting the chances of men dying from the disease or other causes. It has been tested on the medical records of more than 10,000 British patients with prostate cancer and 2,546 people residing in Singapore.
The computer algorithm that gives men their chances, and how much treatment improves them, is based on just 10 questions.
Men provide their age, clinical stage of cancer, degree of aggression, medical test results, as well as whether they have recently been hospitalized.
According to the experts, a more personalized assessment was needed because men are more likely to die of "prostate cancer than it is".
The risk of death from prostate cancer may be less than a heart or a fatal stroke if the cancer develops slowly.
Thus, a 72-year-old man with low-grade prostate cancer could have a six percent chance of dying from prostate cancer in a decade, but a 24 percent chance of dying from something else.
A treatment would reduce his prostate mortality to only 3% but would barely reduce his chances of death by 30 to 27%.
The Daily Mail has campaigned for an urgent improvement in prostate cancer treatments, and it is necessary for men to understand better if they are to pursue them. However, for some men, surgery or radiation can save lives.
The research on the PREDICT Prostate Questionnaire, published in the journal PLOS One, was led by Dr. David Thurtle, a University Researcher in Urology at the University of Cambridge.
He said: "To our knowledge, this is the first personalized tool to estimate the overall survival of men after a diagnosis of prostate cancer.
"We hope that it will provide a more accurate and objective estimate to help men make an informed decision when discussing with their consultant."
Researchers who have tested this tool against cancer have found that many overestimate the risk of a man's death from prostate cancer.
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