JP Morgan: the dollar is about to fall by several years | Economy | The steps

A fall from dollar by 2019, and could last for years.

It's according to JPMorgan Asset Management, which predicts that the dollar could begin to decline at the end of next year with the slowdown in American economy and a possible pause in the cycle of increasing the rate of Federal Reserve (EDF), probably in the second half of 2019.

"In the long run, the trajectory is that of a bearish movement of the dollar over several years," said Monday Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at the US $ 1.7 trillion fund manager. "In the second half of next year, if the FED actually halts the increases, if the US economy slows or the rest of the world stabilizes or improves a bit, the dollar could fall. "

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose nearly 4.5% this year thanks to the rise in EDF rates and strong US economic growth; and JPMorgan Asset says the strength could extend into 2019. The dollar has risen from April, benefiting from economic pressures in Europe and emerging markets, partly because of rising tensions commercial.

"In terms of why the dollar has not continued to fall this year, it's not so much that [la economía de] USA accelerated much more than expected, the rest of the world slowed down, "said David Kelly, Head of Global Asset Manager Strategy.

The slowdown in US growth, a more cautious Fed and adjustments by other central banks are likely to combine to keep the dollar at end-2019 unchanged or down from the end of this year, it said. This does not mean, however, that society expects the transition to a weaker US economy to proceed smoothly.

If "the economy simply falls to 2% growth and maintains it, it's a scenario in which the dollar could fall for several years," Kelly said. "But if something happens that pushes the US into recession, causing another global crisis, it's pretty serious, so people could turn to the dollar as a safe haven."