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The high global emissions of greenhouse gases – caused mainly by the excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation – had an adverse impact on climate change, whose consequences are obvious: rising sea levels, increased drought, floods, frequency of tropical storms and forest fires, with devastating effects on quality of life and human health.
Although 2018 is categorized as an exceptionally hot year, a recent study warns that the temperature will continue to rise at least until 2022, regardless of human intervention on the planet. environment, mainly because of the low probability of episodes of intense cold on the planet.
In the face of this dramatic situation, the rapid and effective implementation of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change is a priority issue to halt the rise in temperature and sea level. It should be recalled that the main objective of this document is to maintain the increase in global average temperature well below 2 ° C and as close as possible to 1.5 ° C.
Climate change and health
The 2018 annual report published by the magazine The lancet –That the title is Countdown on health and climate change- analyzes 41 indicators in five areas: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; finance and economy; Mitigation measures and related health benefits and public and political commitment. These indicators study disasters related to climate, food security, clean fuel use, meat consumption, air pollution and the number of scientific research articles on climate and health.
The analysis concerns 27 prestigious academic institutions, the United Nations and intergovernmental agencies from all continents, which bring their experience in various related fields, such as meteorologists, ecologists, mathematicians, geographers, engineers, experts in science and technology. energy, food, livestock and transport, economists, social and political scientists, health professionals and physicians.
Results: vulnerability and global risks
Increasing vulnerability to health hazards related to thermal overheating, product of global climate change, in which, although the average global temperature increased by 0.3 ° C between 1986 and 2017, the average temperature rise L & # The oblation was more than doubled (0.8 ° C).
This increased vulnerability to morbidity and mortality is more pronounced in the elderly, city-dwellers, and patients with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases, which are the most common causes of death. aggravation or complication of basic diseases, which derive in particular from cardiovascular and / or renal conditions.
In 2017, more than 157 million people over the age of 65 were exposed to heat waves compared to the year 2000 and 18 million more than in 2016.
The The regions of Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean are more vulnerable than Africa and Southeast Asia, due to the aging population of the city.42% of Europeans and 43% of people in the Eastern Mediterranean are over 65 and exposed to heat, compared to 38% in Africa and 34% in South-East Asia.
However, in low- and middle-income countries, the risk increases with the prevalence of NCDs, Especially in Southeast Asia, where heat vulnerability has increased by 3.5% since 1990.
According to the study, each person was exposed on average to a heat wave of 1.4 additional days between 2000 and 2017, compared to the period 1986-2005.
Decrease in working capacity
The increase in temperatures significantly affects the Health at work, since these increases usually exceed physiologically tolerated values, so that sustained work becomes difficult if not impossible.
In 2017, 153 billion hours of work were lost due to high temperatures, which implies an increase of 62 billion hours compared to 2000. These changes were also concentrated in low-income areas. such as India, Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Sahara and South America.
80% of these losses were recorded in the agricultural sector (122 billion hours lost), 17.5% in the industrial sector (27 billion) and 2.5% in the service sector (4%). thousand million).
Communicable diseases and vector control
This study shows that slight increases in temperature and precipitation have a considerable impact on the incidence of serious diseases transmitted by water and vectors such as mosquitoes: in 2016, the global transmission vector capacity dengue virus was the highest recorded, with a 9.1% increase over the 1950s reference level for the mosquito Aedes aegypti and 11.1% for the Aedes albopictus.
Other pathogens also increased significantly: the cholera bacterium increased by 24% on the Baltic coast between 1980 and 2010; In addition, the vectorial capacity of malaria increased by 27.6% in the highlands of sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2016.
Cost of adaptation
Globally, spending in the health sector to adapt to climate change is estimated to have increased by 3.1 percent in 2015-16 to 4.8 percent for the 2016-2017 period, although this amount has not yet reached the figure agreed in the Paris Agreement and only one health project was approved in 2017.
Countries that have increased spending are Europe and South-East Asia, while low-income countries have lower expenditures, which is still insufficient to meet their health needs.
Insufficient response to the emergency
Given the pace of climate change observed, the urgency of the response is insufficient and the report is worrying, as explained by Professor Hilary Graham, of the University of York, UK: "Current changes in heatwaves and work capacity provide an early warning of the enormous and overwhelming impact expected on public health if temperatures continue to rise "," Trends in climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerabilities they present an unacceptable risk for the health, today and in the future ". "Lack of progress in reducing emissions and enhancing adaptive capacity is a threat to life and health systems. This situation needs to be addressed to avoid disruption of the public health infrastructure and overwhelming health services."
The researchers point out, however, some positive trends in health, including the gradual elimination of the use of coal as fuel, the use of environmentally friendly means of transport and the use of environmentally friendly substances. adaptation of the health system, as Professor Graham says: "Despite the delays, some sectors are embarking on a low-carbon transition, which is a promising sign. It is clear that the nature and magnitude of the response to climate change will be critical to the health of nations over the next centuries."
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